2018 Gubernatorial Rankings
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Author Topic: 2018 Gubernatorial Rankings  (Read 44333 times)
Blackacre
Spenstar3D
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« Reply #425 on: November 03, 2018, 01:36:38 PM »
« edited: November 03, 2018, 03:07:52 PM by Spenstar »

Alright, with 3 days left to go until the midterms, I'm ready to put out my final gubernatorial predictions. This will be my last map update. It's been a wild ride, so thanks everybody for sharing it with me.

First, I think I jumped the gun in Michigan, so I'm moving it back to a "mere" likely Democratic. Next, Oregon and Maine are trading places. I'm also moving Connecticut back down to Leans Democratic, making this the only time Connecticut is rated less Democratic than Rhode Island. This is because of tightening polls, and one other race is also shifting due to tightening polls: New Hampshire. It moves to Leans Republican because of a late shift in most polls away from Sununu.

Alright, it's time for my final ratings change. And it involves the creation of a new category. Probable Independent will be replaced with Probable Runoff. This is for races where I can be fairly confident that we will not actually know the victor after election night has come and gone. I will not say anything about who would be favored in the follow-up election. And yes, of course, this rating is reserved for Georgia. (however, for purposes of calculating expected results, I will be treating Georgia as though it is a tossup)

edit: whoops! I was made aware of recent polling changes in a pair of states. Ohio is moving more in Cordray's direction, and Alaska is tightening. Accordingly, they have now changed to Tilts D from tossup and to Tossup from Tilts R respectively.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (7)
MN, RI, CO, NM, ME, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, CT, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
NV, IA, OH

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (3)
AK, KS, SD

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
OK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (3)
SC, VT, NH

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (4)
NE, TN, ID, AZ

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (6)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA, MD

Probable Runoff: It is more likely than not that this race will not be decided on election night. (1)
GA


Democrats: 25 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 3 Governorships
Advancing to Runoff: 1 Governorship
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.65, R-8.65
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.95, R-8.95
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+10.20, R-9.20
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+21, R-20
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+17, R-16
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+2, R-1
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

Nobody ever did poll Nebraska-gov...

My final takeaway is this: Democrats are in a really strong position to regain a lot of what they lost under Obama, and then some. They're favored to pick up 8 seats, with 4 more potential gains as tossups. However, everything is on shaky ground. Democrats continue to have a problem with locking in the places they're favored in, but Republicans started to have that problem too later on. It's easy to see a scenario where Democrats come up painfully short, or a scenario where the dam breaks and Democrats gain a metric ton of seats.

Pay attention to the polls, and also pay attention to fundraising and past special election performances. That's why Republicans aren't gigantic favorites in New Hampshire or in South Carolina, compared to say Arizona or Tennessee. And above all, have fun. I'll probably be wrong about the topline result in a few places at least, (hey thats why there's a lot of races that I don't have as Safe) and that's okay.

But if you want something to quote me on for posterity, to either rub in my face or use to boost my cred, then here it is: I expect Democrats to gain on net 9 to 11 seats.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #426 on: November 04, 2018, 02:38:09 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2018, 02:42:36 AM by bagelman »

I made two maps, one for yes blue wave, and one for no blue wave. 30% is tilt, 40% is lean, 50% likely, 60% strong, 70% safe. Limiting myself to one pure tossup per map.




D+13 or 14



D+4 or 5
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #427 on: November 04, 2018, 02:38:46 PM »

Final prediction:

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #428 on: November 04, 2018, 04:08:37 PM »

Sununu has squandered his lead, NH will be upset of day
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adrac
adracman42
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« Reply #429 on: November 05, 2018, 01:58:30 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2018, 02:21:25 AM by adrac »

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/MB7o

1. New Mexico
2. Illinois

3. Michigan

4. Maine
5. Nevada
6. Florida

7. Wisconsin
8. Alaska
9. Iowa
10. Georgia
11. Kansas

12. New Hampshire
13. Ohio
14. South Dakota

15. Oregon
16. Oklahoma




Hopefully my final map.

Changes:
Arkansas: Forgotten -> Safe R
Arizona: Likely R -> Safe R
New Hampshire: Likely R -> Tilt R POGGERS
South Dakota: Lean R -> Tilt R
Vermont: Safe R -> Likely R

Sununu has squandered his lead, NH will be upset of day
What a legend.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #430 on: November 05, 2018, 01:40:18 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2018, 04:27:41 PM by Fmr. Southern Del. Dwarven Dragon »

Final Changes:

NH: Toss-Up ---> Lean D
OH: Lean R ---> Lean D
IA: Lean R ----> Lean D

I expect to get several races wrong, these are hard predictions to make and there's still a lot that could go either way. Even among the races in the "Likely" Categories, we could see a surprise. These are simply my best educated guesses.

Safe D (5): HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO, OR
Lean D (7): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6), NV (D+7), NH (D+8), OH (D+9), IA (D+10)
Lean R (5): GA, VT, KS, SD, AK (D+10, R+1)
Likely R (4): SC, OK, MD, AZ
Safe R (8): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA, TN
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #431 on: November 05, 2018, 01:55:57 PM »

Final Rankings



NH: Likely R --> Lean R

Safe: The party/candidate is all but guaranteed to win the election.
Likely: The party/candidate is overwhelmingly likely to win, though the opposition could still pull off an upset if everything goes right.
Lean: The party/candidate has the advantage to win, but the race is very competitive and could go either way.

Democrats: 25 (+9)
Republicans: 25 (-8)
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #432 on: November 05, 2018, 02:09:08 PM »



D's flip 10

R's flip 1

D +9 net gain
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Kodak
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« Reply #433 on: November 05, 2018, 05:05:16 PM »

Final average of all non-internals conducted after Labor Day. Alaska is limited to 2-way polls or ones conducted after Walker dropped out.





My predictions:

1. Newsom will win by 5-10 points more.
2. Sisolak will win.
3. At least one of Kansas and South Dakota will hold for the GOP.
4. Idaho, Nebraska and South Carolina will hold for the GOP.
5. Everything else should match the map.
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Atlas Force
mlee117379
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« Reply #434 on: November 05, 2018, 09:05:09 PM »

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Safe D
Connecticut - Likely D
Florida - Lean D
Georgia - Lean Runoff
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Safe D
Iowa - Lean D
Kansas - Lean D
Maine - Safe D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Safe D
Minnesota - Safe D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Lean D
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Likely D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Tossup
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R
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mcmikk
thealmightypiplup
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« Reply #435 on: November 05, 2018, 10:33:28 PM »



Final prediction for Governors' races. D+10.
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Orser67
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« Reply #436 on: November 06, 2018, 02:20:46 AM »

Safe D- HI, CA, NY
Very Likely D- IL, PA, NM
Likely D- CT, MN, MI, CO, ME, OR, RI
Lean D- NV, FL, WI, OH, IA
Lean R- NH, GA, SD, AK, OK, KS
Likely R- SC, AZ
Very Likely R- TX, AL, MA, MD, TN, VT
Safe R- ID, WY, NE, AR

My guess is that Democrats defend all their seats, win IL, NM, and MI, and pick up 5 out of these 6 states: ME, NV, FL, WI, OH, and IA. I'm gonna guess that they also win 2 of NH, GA, SD, AK, OK, and KS. So that would be D+10. Pretty much this entire election, I've felt that the prognosticators have underestimated Democratic gubernatorial gains, so it feels weird to pretty much agree with Sabato.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #437 on: November 06, 2018, 07:47:10 AM »

Dems win ME, MI, OH, IL, WI, KS, NM, NV, FL. Lose AK. D+8.
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