2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Thomas D]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Garcia is down by 1 pt, it's a tossup

[ElectionsGuy]

AK: Tilt R
FL: Tilt D
IA: Tilt R
NV: Tilt D
OH: Tilt R
WI: Tilt D (considering Lean D, being cautious for now)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ and AK are still tossups

[MT Treasurer]

A few changes:

MI: Toss-up -> Likely D (Polling's not going to be that off here, and the RGA has basically given up on this race already.)
TN: Toss-up -> Likely R (Dean was pretty overhyped and is definitely blowing a race which should be a lot more competitive than it is right now, especially with Bredesen on the ballot.)
IA: Lean R -> Toss-up (I still think Reynolds wins, but this is more competitive than I expected.)

NV: Safe D -> Likely D (Safe D was probably a bridge too far, but still, there’s no way Republicans are winning this race in a Democratic or even neutral year.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trend in OH, AZ and IA are Democratic

[Terry the Fat Shark]

My gubernatorial map from July (no tossups)

see no need for changes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My gubernatorial map from July (no tossups)

see no need for changes

Bill Walker just announced his opposition to Kavanaugh, he is filling his role as an independent nicely and can win reelection despite his approval rating.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

My gubernatorial map from July (no tossups)

see no need for changes

Bill Walker just announced his opposition to Kavanaugh, he is filling his role as an independent nicely and can win reelection despite his approval rating.

no evers and hubbell can win because the midwest is still elastic

[Blackacre]

Time for this week's Rating Change Roundup!! Today, I have four changes for your viewing pleasure.

Let's get the bad news for Democrats out of the way. Colorado is entering the Leans window, leaving the Likely D category, I'm doing this because now the polls are mattering more than my priors, and polling in Colorado doesn't show Polis running away with this race. To the contrary, his leads are in the mid single digits. A future poll could upend this race completely, but for now, I have to acknowledge that this is indeed a real contest.

Next up, South Carolina. Similar change (Likely R to Lean R) and the same reasoning: polls don't show a McCaster walk. Actually polls are kind of all over the place. There's an R+11 and an R+4, which averages to R+7.5, which is sort of the border of Lean and Likely given SC's inelasticity and partisan lean. However, there is one factor here that plays to Democrats' advantage: special elections. South Carolina has had 7 of them, with an average swing of >17 points leftward. That is huge. In fact, it's better than specials in some Likely D races like Michigan and Minnesota.  Like with Iowa, I feel like Special elections are an underrated factor and that ignoring it causes people to overestimate the GOP.

Now, it's Wisconsin time. Walker hasn't led a poll since August. But that was true already, and those leads included a Walker+4, so what gives? Here's what gives: the only polls showing a tie or Walker lead among B- or higher rated polls (as per 538) were Marquette University Law School polls. The latest Marquette shows Evers up by 4 or 5. So there is now a much clearer consensus on the direction of the race. As such, I am now comfortable moving Wisconsin from Tilts D to Leans D.

Finally, Rhode Island. This one.... is tricky. It's not a tossup anymore, thanks to a Fleming & Associates poll that shows Raimondo up by 7. Their previous poll was a D+2, and the only other pollster I care about here is a SocialSphere poll from June that showed a tie. So that averages to D+3.5, which should be either a tilt or a lean. On one hand, Fung is not up in any poll I care about. On the other, the Fleming & Associates poll was 43 to 36, indicating a lot of undecided voters. This creates uncertainty, which kinda sucks. So I'm moving the race for now to Tilts Democratic, pending further data.

edit: I'm sorry, there's one more change: Georgia gets a long-overdue move to Tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
MN, CT, OR, NM, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (5)
CO, ME, NV, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
RI, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
OH, KS, OK, GA

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (3)
SC, NH, AZ

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (6)
MD, SD, NE, TN, ID, VT

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (5)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.1, R-8.6
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.1, R-8.6
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+9.6, R-9.1
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+22, R-21
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+16, R-15
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+1, R+0*
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

*I calculated this wrong last time

[Progressive Pessimist]

My gubernatorial map from July (no tossups)

see no need for changes

Damn! You sure are optimistic.

[bagelman]

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1105

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK is independent and Bill Walker and Murkowski have a working relationship together of bipartisanship.😁

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OK isn't a tossup, OH Lean R and AK is a tossup with Walker winning. Bevin may lose should McConnell become minority leader.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If forced to push, I would push FL to the dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa and NV will vote Dem

[Yellowhammer]

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Great rankings. Mine would look almost exactly like this.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Thoughts of this new prediction? (I’ll make new prediction maps every Monday until the Election)

[ON Progressive]

Thoughts of this new prediction?

Nevada is not going Republican if Kansas and Oklahoma are going Democratic.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Nevada is not going Republican if Kansas and Oklahoma are going Democratic.

Oops, I accidentally put NV as rilt R, should be tilt D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Too bad OH is leading R

[DaWN]

CHANGE
Florida: Tossup -> Lean D
Kansas: Lean R -> Tossup

[ON Progressive]

[Atlas Force]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Likely D
Florida - Lean D
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Likely D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Tossup
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Lean R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Safe D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Lean R
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Tossup
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Likely R
Tennessee - Lean R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R