2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[mcmikk]

Ratings as of 10/21/2018:



I don't think I ever posted it here, but I had AK as Likely R for a brief period of time, but it moves back to Lean R with Walker out.

Other changes:

Arizona: Tossup --> Lean R
Maine: Tossup --> Lean D

[Atlas Force]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Safe D
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Lean D
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Safe D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Tossup
Maine - Likely D
Maryland - Lean R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Safe D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Lean R
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Tossup
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Likely D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Lean R
Tennessee - Lean R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[libertpaulian]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Likely R
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Titanium D
Colorado - Safe D
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Lean D
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Safe D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Tossup
Maine - Likely D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Safe D
Minnesota - Safe D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Likely R
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Tossup
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Likely D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Lean R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Safe R

[Blackacre]

God, it's been AGES since I've updated this map. In that time, a lot of races have shifted, 538 put out their model, and Kav has come and gone. Unlike my Senate maps, which were invalidated by 538, my gubernatorial maps will stay alive, mainly because I have some disagreements with 538's predictions.

So how have things changed since September? Let's go through every single adjustment I've got.

First, we're basically cleaning out the Leans Republican ranking. Of the four states in that category before, three no longer belong there. In Arizona and New Hampshire, it's become very clear the Republican incumbent is holding on to his job, so they move to Likely. Alaska, however, is more interesting. The race is officially two-way, which means no more vote-splitting, which means it goes back to the Tilts Republican rating it had before. Dulvaney is still favored, but Begich has a real, strong, fighting chance.

On the other side of things, the Tilts Democratic rating is also shedding its former membership. Maine moves to Leans Democratic, the only ratings change I have that's primarily due to 538. Since September, Rhode Island has gone the way of Arizona, but in the other direction. It moves to Likely Democratic alongside its sister state Connecticut. Speaking of former tossup states moving toward one party, Oklahoma is going from Tossup to Tilts Republican.

Next up we have a few races moving towards the middle due to uncertainty, whether that be because of lack of polling or the state's own, um, issues. Nevada goes from Leans D to Tilts, and South Dakota goes from Tilts R to Tossup and Vermont goes from Likely R to Leans.

Finally, two states will join the Safe category, one for each party. The first is Maryland. Ben Jealous really does not have a prayer and Hogan has been leading by 15+ points again and again. The other actually breaks one of my longtime rules. I have always been against rating a state as a safe flip, but seeing where this particular race is going, I am making a lone exception for Michigan. Illinois is open to being in the Safe camp, but Pritzker has a hard time hitting 50 whenever someone polls the state, which creates uncertainty.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (5)
CA, NY, HI, PA, MI

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
MN, CT, OR, RI, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
CO, ME, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
NV, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
OH, KS, SD, GA

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
AK, OK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
SC, VT

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NE, TN, ID, NH, AZ

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (6)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA, MD

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
lmao

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.4, R-8.4
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.5, R-8.5
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+10.00, R-9.0
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+21, R-20
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+16, R-15
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+2, R-1
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+5, D-4

Looks like things improved overall for Dems, probably mainly because of the shift in Rhode Island. Most of everything else is canceled out by a different change. (SD and Oklahoma traded spots, Maine and Nevada traded spots, Michigan and Maryland moved from likely to safe, etc) The biggest improvement came from the tilts-only calculation, which makes sense because the Tilts D category got cut in half while the Tilt R one actually grew. Also, because the number of Tilt D and Tilt R races are the same, Tilts-only is literally the outcome that would happen if both parties won everything they were favored in and split the tossups: D+10.

Edit: I am an idiot regarding Alaska. No matter what, because Alaska is neither D held nor R held, the party that makes overall gains in governorships will have one more gain than the other party loses. The only way to avert that would have been a Bill Walker victory, but he dropped out.

[Blackacre]

I apologize for the quick ratings change and the double post, but a new poll from a B ranked pollster gives Polis a 12 point edge in Colorado. The state hasn't had much quality polling, and already was on the borderline between Lean D and Likely D, so  this is enough to move the state in my view to Likely Democratic. Notably, Colorado was the only Democratic-held governorship in the Leans window before now. For the first time, every race in the Lean Window is a potential Democratic pickup. (ie the only opportunities the GOP have to pick up Dem-held seats are outside that window. Alaska, held by an independent, does not count.)

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (5)
CA, NY, HI, PA, MI

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (7)
MN, CT, OR, RI, CO, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
ME, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
NV, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
OH, KS, SD, GA

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
AK, OK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
SC, VT

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NE, TN, ID, NH, AZ

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (6)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA, MD

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
lmao

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.55, R-8.55
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.75, R-8.75
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+10.00, R-9.0
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+21, R-20
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+16, R-15
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+3, R-2
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+5, D-4

Democrats' gubernatorial hopes are looking better and better. This is not due to tossups shifting in their favor -- the number of tossups is the same as usual and Ohio hasn't budged once since these ratings began. (Georgia's staying right where it is, too) Nor have Republican-favored seats suddenly gotten more competitive. South Dakota has, but that's the only super-notable one, and indeed states like Arizona and New Hampshire have gotten worse for Dems. Instead, Democrats are doing better because they're shoring up the states they're already favored in, such as Rhode Island and now Colorado. Dems how have almost as few Leaning seats as the GOP, only one fewer safe seat, and exactly as many tilts, but in exchange they have a ton more Likely states, which is a lot more valuable for them. I'm going to heavily anticipate more polling from Iowa and Maine, two states that I think Dems could also shore up. Each race moving toward Dems by one category would put them past D+10 on both the Leans-only and Tilts-only formulas, and dangerously close on Uncorrelated. Maine is borderline as is, with solid high single digit leads in the last 3 polls. The main thing holding it back, in fact, is that two of those polls were by pollsters that didn't have 538 rankings. Give us that same kind of result from a Quinnipiac or a CNN or something and I will give it another look.

However, I'm also keeping an eye on Oregon. Its Likely D rating is very fragile and one more poll showing Brown with a narrow lead would be enough to shift it down and reverse this trend. And speaking of Likely window states, SOMEONE PLEASE POLL NEBRASKA!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Updated rankings time with new poll results in FL and OH and AK

[TheSaint250]

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm still skeptical that SD actually the votes to go D, but I don't feel like I can say that with 85% certainty anymore, so SD moves from Likely R to Lean R.

Safe D (6): OR, HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (6): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO
Lean D (3): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6)
Toss-Up (2): NV, NH
Lean R (7): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, SD, AK (D+6, R+1)
Likely R (4): SC, OK, MD, AZ
Safe R (8): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA, TN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D takeover: FL, IL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NM, WI
Tossup AK(Begich can win),GA(Special R under), KS, OH, VT(Special R under 50, D state legislature install Democrat)
Tilt R: AZ, MD, NV, NH, OK

[ElectionsGuy]

IA: Toss-Up (Tilt R) --> Toss-Up (Tilt D)
MD: Likely R --> Safe R
NH: Lean R --> Likely R
SD: Likely R --> Lean R

I'm waiting on Marquette for Wisconsin, though I'll say I'm not as confident in my Lean D rating now as I was a few weeks ago.

[DaWN]

CHANGE
Iowa: Lean R -> Tossup
I'm still bulilsh on Reynolds but I was definitely being overly generous to her
Maine: Tossup -> Lean D
Mills has led by decent amounts in pretty much all recent polling - she definitely has an advantage even if it isn't a big one
Nevada: Tossup -> Lean D
Mainly because I'm starting to weed out unnecessary tossups, but also because I'm beginning to doubt that Laxalt will overperform by Heller by that much like I thought before.
South Dakota: Lean R -> Tossup
This one is obviously competitive. I think who wins depends on how much of a Dem year this ends up being.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VT can go into runoff if Scott fails to get 50, it's not Safe R

[smoltchanov]

VT can go into runoff if Scott fails to get 50, it's not Safe R

No runoffs in Vermont. Legislature chooses in such case. And always chosees plurality winner.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, but the state legislature is Democratic, we dont know how close Dem really is and Sue Minter almost won. Scott isn't up 25 points

[Thomas D]

I decided it's too late in the game to use toss-ups.  But if I did it would have been Kansas, Ohio, Iowa and South Dakota

[Kodak]

Updated my polls.



Like the Senate map, I think some of these margins are missing the mark by a lot, but aside from the six states that are within 1%, I'm confident the polls are calling everything correctly.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Probably update this one final time next week Monday (I have replaced tossups with tilt ratings):

[DaWN]

CHANGE
Alaska: Likely R -> Lean R
Looks like Mr Begich may have a better chance than I previously gave him. Still think he loses but it'll be at least closer.
Georgia: Lean R -> Tossup
Out of caution. There'll probably be a runoff and I think Abrams will struggle in that (hence the previous rating) but I think there's enough uncertainty to warrant this move.
South Carolina: Likely R -> Safe R
Not much comment needed. There was some upset potential here but that has disappeared now this late in the game.

I forgot WY on my last map. Usually I'd add it back in but I can't really be bothered if I'm honest. Was Safe R, now Safe R.

Barring any late shocks, these will be my final ratings going into Tuesday.

[ElectionsGuy]

No more Toss-Ups

AK: Likely R --> Lean R
CT: Likely D --> Lean D
OH: Tilt R --> Lean D

Safe: The party/candidate is all but guaranteed to win re-election.
Likely: The party/candidate is overwhelmingly likely to win, though the opposition could still pull off an upset if everything goes right.
Lean: The party/candidate has the advantage to win, but the race is very competitive and could go either way.

Democrats: 25 (+9)
Republicans: 25 (-8)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm ready to announce a pick in one of the two Toss-Ups. From the early voting data and the CNN/SSRS poll released today, I am ready to move NV from Toss-Up to Lean D. If this prediction is correct, this will be a big win for the Democrats, who have not won this governorship in over 20 years.

I will continue to leave NH at Toss-Up for now in hopes of getting a poll or two over the weekend such that we can measure the exact size of the late Molly Kelly/Angry Woman Surge.

Also, out of an abundance of caution, I will place Oregon into the Likely D category, from Safe D. If this goes R (or any of the other Likely D races do), it would be part of a very good night for Republicans.

I will be keeping an eye on any and all polling or other data that comes out over the next several days, and may make several last-minute adjustments, so stay tuned.

Safe D (5): HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO, OR
Lean D (4): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6), NV (D+7)
Toss-Up (1): NH
Lean R (7): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, SD, AK (D+7, R+1)
Likely R (4): SC, OK, MD, AZ
Safe R (8): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA, TN

[DabbingSanta]

Final map from October 30th

Prediction:



Confidence:



Lean R:
Oklahoma

Tossup:
Alaska
Nevada
South Dakota
Kansas
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
Georgia
Florida

Lean D:
Oregon
Colorado
New Mexico
Minnesota
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Maine

[Orser67]

Safe D- HI, CA, NY
Very Likely D- RI, OR, IL, PA, NM
Likely D- CT, MN, MI, CO
Lean D- NV, FL, WI, OH, ME
Toss-Up- AZ, IA, KS, OK
Lean R- NH, GA
Likely R- SC, TN, MD, AK
Very Likely R- SD, TX, AL, VT, MA
Safe R- ID, WY, NE, AR

Safe D- HI, CA, NY
Very Likely D- IL, PA, NM
Likely D- CT, MN, MI, CO, ME, OR, RI
Lean D- NV, FL, WI, OH, IA
Lean R- NH, GA, SD, AK, OK, KS
Likely R- SC, AZ
Very Likely R- TX, AL, MA, MD, TN, VT
Safe R- ID, WY, NE, AR

[adrac]

1. New Mexico
2. Illinois

3. Michigan

4. Maine
5. Florida
6. Nevada

7. Wisconsin
8. Georgia
9. Alaska
10. Iowa
11. Kansas

12. Ohio

13. Oregon
14. South Dakota
15. Oklahoma

I might do one more round of changes before election day. I'm also moving everything off of tossup.

Changes since Mid October:
Alaska: Likely R -> Tilt R
Colorado: Likely D -> Safe D
Iowa: Tossup -> Tilt D
Kansas: Tossup -> Tilt D
Nevada: Tilt D -> Lean D
Ohio: Tossup -> Tilt R
Rhode Island: Lean D -> Likely D
South Dakota: Likely R -> Lean R

[Progressive Pessimist]

Here are my final ratings without tossups:

Democratic holds:
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Hawaii
Minnesota
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island

Republican holds:
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
Georgia
Idaho
Kansas
Maryland
Massachusetts
Nebraska
New Hampshire
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Wyoming

Democratic gains:
Florida
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Michigan
Nevada
New Mexico
Wisconsin


Republican gains:
Alaska

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH and AK will go Dem