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Author Topic: 2018 Gubernatorial Rankings  (Read 27713 times)
olowakandi
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« Reply #450 on: October 24, 2018, 04:32:23 pm »



Tilt D takeover: FL, IL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NM, WI
Tossup AK(Begich can win),GA(Special R under), KS, OH, VT(Special R under 50, D state legislature install Democrat)
Tilt R: AZ, MD, NV, NH, OK
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #451 on: October 25, 2018, 11:13:20 am »



IA: Toss-Up (Tilt R) --> Toss-Up (Tilt D)
MD: Likely R --> Safe R
NH: Lean R --> Likely R
SD: Likely R --> Lean R

I'm waiting on Marquette for Wisconsin, though I'll say I'm not as confident in my Lean D rating now as I was a few weeks ago.
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« Reply #452 on: October 26, 2018, 09:22:21 am »



CHANGE
Iowa: Lean R -> Tossup
I'm still bulilsh on Reynolds but I was definitely being overly generous to her
Maine: Tossup -> Lean D
Mills has led by decent amounts in pretty much all recent polling - she definitely has an advantage even if it isn't a big one
Nevada: Tossup -> Lean D
Mainly because I'm starting to weed out unnecessary tossups, but also because I'm beginning to doubt that Laxalt will overperform by Heller by that much like I thought before.
South Dakota: Lean R -> Tossup
This one is obviously competitive. I think who wins depends on how much of a Dem year this ends up being.

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olowakandi
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« Reply #453 on: October 26, 2018, 10:01:29 am »

VT can go into runoff if Scott fails to get 50, it's not Safe R
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« Reply #454 on: October 26, 2018, 10:42:06 am »

VT can go into runoff if Scott fails to get 50, it's not Safe R

No runoffs in Vermont. Legislature chooses in such case. And always chosees plurality winner.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #455 on: October 26, 2018, 12:54:49 pm »

Yes, but the state legislature is Democratic, we dont know how close Dem really is and Sue Minter almost won. Scott isn't up 25 points
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« Reply #456 on: October 26, 2018, 10:03:24 pm »



I decided it's too late in the game to use toss-ups.  But if I did it would have been Kansas, Ohio, Iowa and South Dakota
« Last Edit: October 26, 2018, 10:08:07 pm by Thomas D »Logged
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« Reply #457 on: October 28, 2018, 03:23:09 am »

Updated my polls.



Like the Senate map, I think some of these margins are missing the mark by a lot, but aside from the six states that are within 1%, I'm confident the polls are calling everything correctly.
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« Reply #458 on: October 28, 2018, 06:06:42 pm »




Probably update this one final time next week Monday (I have replaced tossups with tilt ratings):



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« Reply #459 on: October 31, 2018, 01:17:03 pm »



CHANGE
Alaska: Likely R -> Lean R
Looks like Mr Begich may have a better chance than I previously gave him. Still think he loses but it'll be at least closer.
Georgia: Lean R -> Tossup
Out of caution. There'll probably be a runoff and I think Abrams will struggle in that (hence the previous rating) but I think there's enough uncertainty to warrant this move.
South Carolina: Likely R -> Safe R
Not much comment needed. There was some upset potential here but that has disappeared now this late in the game.



I forgot WY on my last map. Usually I'd add it back in but I can't really be bothered if I'm honest. Was Safe R, now Safe R.

Barring any late shocks, these will be my final ratings going into Tuesday.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 06:09:39 am by DaWN »Logged

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« Reply #460 on: October 31, 2018, 01:36:21 pm »

No more Toss-Ups



AK: Likely R --> Lean R
CT: Likely D --> Lean D
OH: Tilt R --> Lean D

Safe: The party/candidate is all but guaranteed to win re-election.
Likely: The party/candidate is overwhelmingly likely to win, though the opposition could still pull off an upset if everything goes right.
Lean: The party/candidate has the advantage to win, but the race is very competitive and could go either way.

Democrats: 25 (+9)
Republicans: 25 (-8)
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« Reply #461 on: October 31, 2018, 01:41:52 pm »

I'm ready to announce a pick in one of the two Toss-Ups. From the early voting data and the CNN/SSRS poll released today, I am ready to move NV from Toss-Up to Lean D. If this prediction is correct, this will be a big win for the Democrats, who have not won this governorship in over 20 years.

I will continue to leave NH at Toss-Up for now in hopes of getting a poll or two over the weekend such that we can measure the exact size of the late Molly Kelly/Angry Woman Surge.

Also, out of an abundance of caution, I will place Oregon into the Likely D category, from Safe D. If this goes R (or any of the other Likely D races do), it would be part of a very good night for Republicans.

I will be keeping an eye on any and all polling or other data that comes out over the next several days, and may make several last-minute adjustments, so stay tuned.

Safe D (5): HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO, OR
Lean D (4): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6), NV (D+7)
Toss-Up (1): NH
Lean R (7): GA, VT, KS, OH, IA, SD, AK (D+7, R+1)
Likely R (4): SC, OK, MD, AZ
Safe R (8): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA, TN
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« Reply #462 on: October 31, 2018, 01:44:50 pm »

Final map from October 30th

Prediction:



Confidence:



Lean R:
Oklahoma

Tossup:
Alaska
Nevada
South Dakota
Kansas
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
Georgia
Florida

Lean D:
Oregon
Colorado
New Mexico
Minnesota
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Maine
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« Reply #463 on: October 31, 2018, 02:03:04 pm »



My final prediction.
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« Reply #464 on: October 31, 2018, 03:45:13 pm »

Safe D- HI, CA, NY
Very Likely D- RI, OR, IL, PA, NM
Likely D- CT, MN, MI, CO
Lean D- NV, FL, WI, OH, ME
Toss-Up- AZ, IA, KS, OK
Lean R- NH, GA
Likely R- SC, TN, MD, AK
Very Likely R- SD, TX, AL, VT, MA
Safe R- ID, WY, NE, AR

Safe D- HI, CA, NY
Very Likely D- IL, PA, NM
Likely D- CT, MN, MI, CO, ME, OR, RI
Lean D- NV, FL, WI, OH, IA
Lean R- NH, GA, SD, AK, OK, KS
Likely R- SC, AZ
Very Likely R- TX, AL, MA, MD, TN, VT
Safe R- ID, WY, NE, AR
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adrac
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« Reply #465 on: October 31, 2018, 04:45:23 pm »

1. New Mexico
2. Illinois

3. Michigan

4. Maine
5. Florida
6. Nevada

7. Wisconsin
8. Georgia
9. Alaska
10. Iowa
11. Kansas

12. Ohio

13. Oregon
14. South Dakota
15. Oklahoma




I might do one more round of changes before election day. I'm also moving everything off of tossup.

Changes since Mid October:
Alaska: Likely R -> Tilt R
Colorado: Likely D -> Safe D
Iowa: Tossup -> Tilt D
Kansas: Tossup -> Tilt D
Nevada: Tilt D -> Lean D
Ohio: Tossup -> Tilt R
Rhode Island: Lean D -> Likely D
South Dakota: Likely R -> Lean R
« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 11:09:02 am by adrac »Logged

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« Reply #466 on: October 31, 2018, 08:11:33 pm »

Here are my final ratings without tossups:

Democratic holds:
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Hawaii
Minnesota
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island


Republican holds:
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
Georgia
Idaho
Kansas
Maryland
Massachusetts
Nebraska
New Hampshire
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Wyoming


Democratic gains:
Florida
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Michigan
Nevada
New Mexico
Wisconsin


Republican gains:
Alaska
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olowakandi
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« Reply #467 on: October 31, 2018, 09:45:45 pm »

OH and AK will go Dem
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Spenstar
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« Reply #468 on: November 03, 2018, 01:36:38 pm »

Alright, with 3 days left to go until the midterms, I'm ready to put out my final gubernatorial predictions. This will be my last map update. It's been a wild ride, so thanks everybody for sharing it with me.

First, I think I jumped the gun in Michigan, so I'm moving it back to a "mere" likely Democratic. Next, Oregon and Maine are trading places. I'm also moving Connecticut back down to Leans Democratic, making this the only time Connecticut is rated less Democratic than Rhode Island. This is because of tightening polls, and one other race is also shifting due to tightening polls: New Hampshire. It moves to Leans Republican because of a late shift in most polls away from Sununu.

Alright, it's time for my final ratings change. And it involves the creation of a new category. Probable Independent will be replaced with Probable Runoff. This is for races where I can be fairly confident that we will not actually know the victor after election night has come and gone. I will not say anything about who would be favored in the follow-up election. And yes, of course, this rating is reserved for Georgia. (however, for purposes of calculating expected results, I will be treating Georgia as though it is a tossup)

edit: whoops! I was made aware of recent polling changes in a pair of states. Ohio is moving more in Cordray's direction, and Alaska is tightening. Accordingly, they have now changed to Tilts D from tossup and to Tossup from Tilts R respectively.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (7)
MN, RI, CO, NM, ME, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, CT, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
NV, IA, OH

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (3)
AK, KS, SD

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
OK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (3)
SC, VT, NH

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (4)
NE, TN, ID, AZ

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (6)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA, MD

Probable Runoff: It is more likely than not that this race will not be decided on election night. (1)
GA


Democrats: 25 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 3 Governorships
Advancing to Runoff: 1 Governorship
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.65, R-8.65
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.95, R-8.95
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+10.20, R-9.20
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+21, R-20
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+17, R-16
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+2, R-1
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

Nobody ever did poll Nebraska-gov...

My final takeaway is this: Democrats are in a really strong position to regain a lot of what they lost under Obama, and then some. They're favored to pick up 8 seats, with 4 more potential gains as tossups. However, everything is on shaky ground. Democrats continue to have a problem with locking in the places they're favored in, but Republicans started to have that problem too later on. It's easy to see a scenario where Democrats come up painfully short, or a scenario where the dam breaks and Democrats gain a metric ton of seats.

Pay attention to the polls, and also pay attention to fundraising and past special election performances. That's why Republicans aren't gigantic favorites in New Hampshire or in South Carolina, compared to say Arizona or Tennessee. And above all, have fun. I'll probably be wrong about the topline result in a few places at least, (hey thats why there's a lot of races that I don't have as Safe) and that's okay.

But if you want something to quote me on for posterity, to either rub in my face or use to boost my cred, then here it is: I expect Democrats to gain on net 9 to 11 seats.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 03:07:52 pm by Spenstar »Logged

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« Reply #469 on: November 04, 2018, 02:38:09 am »

I made two maps, one for yes blue wave, and one for no blue wave. 30% is tilt, 40% is lean, 50% likely, 60% strong, 70% safe. Limiting myself to one pure tossup per map.




D+13 or 14



D+4 or 5
« Last Edit: November 04, 2018, 02:42:36 am by bagelman »Logged

Castro
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« Reply #470 on: November 04, 2018, 02:38:46 pm »

Final prediction:

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olowakandi
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« Reply #471 on: November 04, 2018, 04:08:37 pm »

Sununu has squandered his lead, NH will be upset of day
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adrac
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« Reply #472 on: November 05, 2018, 01:58:30 am »

http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/MB7o

1. New Mexico
2. Illinois

3. Michigan

4. Maine
5. Nevada
6. Florida

7. Wisconsin
8. Alaska
9. Iowa
10. Georgia
11. Kansas

12. New Hampshire
13. Ohio
14. South Dakota

15. Oregon
16. Oklahoma




Hopefully my final map.

Changes:
Arkansas: Forgotten -> Safe R
Arizona: Likely R -> Safe R
New Hampshire: Likely R -> Tilt R POGGERS
South Dakota: Lean R -> Tilt R
Vermont: Safe R -> Likely R

Sununu has squandered his lead, NH will be upset of day
What a legend.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 02:21:25 am by adrac »Logged

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« Reply #473 on: November 05, 2018, 01:40:18 pm »

Final Changes:

NH: Toss-Up ---> Lean D
OH: Lean R ---> Lean D
IA: Lean R ----> Lean D

I expect to get several races wrong, these are hard predictions to make and there's still a lot that could go either way. Even among the races in the "Likely" Categories, we could see a surprise. These are simply my best educated guesses.

Safe D (5): HI, NY, CA, PA, IL (D+1)
Likely D (7): CT, RI, MN, NM (D+2), MI (D+3), CO, OR
Lean D (7): ME (D+4), WI (D+5), FL (D+6), NV (D+7), NH (D+8), OH (D+9), IA (D+10)
Lean R (5): GA, VT, KS, SD, AK (D+10, R+1)
Likely R (4): SC, OK, MD, AZ
Safe R (8): ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA, TN
« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 04:27:41 pm by Fmr. Southern Del. Dwarven Dragon »Logged

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2020 House Rating - Toss-Up
ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #474 on: November 05, 2018, 01:55:57 pm »

Final Rankings



NH: Likely R --> Lean R

Safe: The party/candidate is all but guaranteed to win the election.
Likely: The party/candidate is overwhelmingly likely to win, though the opposition could still pull off an upset if everything goes right.
Lean: The party/candidate has the advantage to win, but the race is very competitive and could go either way.

Democrats: 25 (+9)
Republicans: 25 (-8)
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