2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[libertpaulian]

My Ranks:

Alabama - Safe R with Cobb, Likely R with Maddox
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Titanium D with Newsom as the Dem nominee, Safe D with any of the other Dems
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Tossup
Florida - Tossup with Putnam, Tilt D with DeSantis
Georgia - Likely R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D
Iowa - Lean R
Kansas - Lean R
Maine - Tossup to Tilt D
Maryland - Lean R
Massachusetts - Likely R
Michigan - Tilt D
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Lean D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Likely R
Oregon - Likely D
Pennsylvania - Likely D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Titanium R.  Abbott is a masterful campaigner.
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Tossup
Wyoming - Safe R

[libertpaulian]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tilt R (with Begich)
Arizona - Tilt R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Titanium D
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Tilt D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Lean R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Safe D
Iowa - Lean R
Kansas - Tilt R
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Likely D
Nebraska - Likely R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Likely R
New Mexico - Likely D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Tilt R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Tilt D
Wyoming - Likely R

My updated projections in light of primaries, specials, polling, and the overall political environment as of yesterday.

[libertpaulian]

Safe D: California, Hawaii, Illinois, New York
Likely D: New Mexico, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Colorado, Oregon
Lean D: Maine, Michigan
Tilt D: Wisconsin, Rhode Island
Tossup: Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Kansas
Tilt R: Alaska, Oklahoma
Lean R: Iowa
Likely R: South Carolina, Tennessee, South Dakota, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont
Safe R: Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama

[libertpaulian]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Tossup
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Titanium D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Safe D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Tossup
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Safe D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Likely R
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Tossup
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Tilt D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Likely R
Tennessee - Lean R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Tilt D
Wyoming - Safe R

[libertpaulian]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Titanim D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Likely D
Florida - Tilt D
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Safe D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Tossup
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Safe D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Likley R
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Tossup
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Likely R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[libertpaulian]

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, MA, NE, TX, WY
Likely R: AZ, MD, NH, SC, SD, TN, VT
Lean R: AK
Tossup: GA, IA, KS, OH, OK
Lean D: FL, RI, WI, ME, NV
Likely D: CO, CT, MI, MN, NM, OR
Safe D: CA, HI, NY, PA, IL

[libertpaulian]

NH seems more competitive than all the others in the likely R column.

Shhh, he thinks NH is an elastic libertarian independent moderate Republican swing state at heart.

Maybe because Sununu is the right candidate at the right time for the state?

[libertpaulian]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Likely R
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Titanium D
Colorado - Safe D
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Lean D
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Safe D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Tossup
Maine - Likely D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Safe D
Minnesota - Safe D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Likely R
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Tossup
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Likely D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Lean R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Safe R