2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Scottholes 2.0]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

This list is a joke! The fact that you think Iowa is more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than WISCONSIN (when Iowa is REDDER than Wisconsin, voted for Trump at a much higher margin, has much less urbanization than Wisconsin, and has 2 Republican U.S. senators) pretty much discredits your entire list. WI is a state that has had three seats flipped this year and a Trump approval rating of only 41 percent (compared to Iowa's 45 percent), while there is virtually no proof of a blue wave occurring in Iowa.

I'm not saying Walker will win, for sure, but thinking Iowa tilts more D in this election than WI is very comical.

[Scottholes 2.0]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

This list is a joke! The fact that you think Iowa is more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than WISCONSIN (when Iowa is REDDER than Wisconsin, voted for Trump at a much higher margin, has much less urbanization than Wisconsin, and has 2 Republican U.S. senators) pretty much discredits your entire list. WI is a state that has had three seats flipped this year and a Trump approval rating of only 41 percent (compared to Iowa's 45 percent), while there is virtually no proof of a blue wave occurring in Iowa, yet you think Iowa will lean more Democratic just because WI's most unpopular/polarized incumbent has some sort of "incumbency advantage."

I'm not saying Walker will win, for sure, but thinking Iowa tilts more D in this election than WI is very comical. Evers obviously has more of an advantage than Hubbell and is leading in the polls thus far. Hubbell hasn't lead in any.

Hubbel has actually lead in the only poll so far, but it was a private poll, done by the Des Moins Register. Its why Sabato moved it all the way from likely R to tossup. I heard it gave Hubbel a double digit lead. And IA is more swingy and Reynolds doesnt have the advantage of incumbency.

Personally, I would move MI and WI one step up each.

I edited my second paragraph. I didn't know a private poll was conducted. I guess hisor her  list makes a little more sense now. Thanks for the correction!

[Scottholes 2.0]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

This list is a joke! The fact that you think Iowa is more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than WISCONSIN (when Iowa is REDDER than Wisconsin, voted for Trump at a much higher margin, has much less urbanization than Wisconsin, and has 2 Republican U.S. senators) pretty much discredits your entire list. WI is a state that has had three seats flipped this year and a Trump approval rating of only 41 percent (compared to Iowa's 45 percent), while there is virtually no proof of a blue wave occurring in Iowa, yet you think Iowa will lean more Democratic just because WI's most unpopular/polarized incumbent has some sort of "incumbency advantage."

I'm not saying Walker will win, for sure, but thinking Iowa tilts more D in this election than WI is very comical. Evers obviously has more of an advantage than Hubbell and is leading in the polls thus far. Hubbell hasn't lead in any.

Okay. Okay okay okay.

First of all, I don't have Iowa as more Democratic than Wisconsin. I have them at the same rating: Tilts D. Both of them are more likely than not to elect a Democratic governor. Both are less likely than Michigan to do the same, however. Actually, if you read my analysis I said that Wisconsin is somewhere between Iowa and Michigan, which means that, gun to my head, I do believe Wisconsin is more likely to go D than Iowa, mainly on account of the strength of Evers as a candidate.

Second, I don't buy the notion that Iowa is a redder state. It's more elastic. It went for Trump harder, sure, but both states voted for Obama twice, and while Wisconsin had some strong special elections, Iowa has had an even larger swing in its direction in the special elections. Take a look, it's insane! That's basically the sole reason I'm giving Ds an advantage in Iowa, because of how much the electorate snapped to the Ds in special elections. It happened in Wisconsin too, but to a lesser extent. There is ABSOLUTELY a blue wave in Iowa right now, it's not exactly Florida or Connecticut in that regard.

As to your argument about Iowa having 2 Republican senators, well, both states had GOP wins in 2010 and 2014. Wisconsin's D senator is a product of luck more than anything else; it's the state that had a senate election in the D-friendly 2012.

My point is, calm down. If you have Iowa as likely r and Wisconsin as likely d, that's your opinion. I'm sharing mine. We can discuss, debate, and compare/contrast, but I'd appreciate it if you didn't go for the throat next time

I'm very sorry. I did come off as a little harsh. My apologies. I realized that I made a mistake once Zaybay clarified, and now that you've clarified your stance, it makes a lot more sense now.

I wasn't trying to go down your throat, I just worded it in a way in which it did seem that way. I'm a nice person, I promise. You can always message me anytime.

[Scottholes 2.0]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

This list is a joke! The fact that you think Iowa is more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than WISCONSIN (when Iowa is REDDER than Wisconsin, voted for Trump at a much higher margin, has much less urbanization than Wisconsin, and has 2 Republican U.S. senators) pretty much discredits your entire list. WI is a state that has had three seats flipped this year and a Trump approval rating of only 41 percent (compared to Iowa's 45 percent), while there is virtually no proof of a blue wave occurring in Iowa, yet you think Iowa will lean more Democratic just because WI's most unpopular/polarized incumbent has some sort of "incumbency advantage."

I'm not saying Walker will win, for sure, but thinking Iowa tilts more D in this election than WI is very comical. Evers obviously has more of an advantage than Hubbell and is leading in the polls thus far. Hubbell hasn't lead in any.

Okay. Okay okay okay.

First of all, I don't have Iowa as more Democratic than Wisconsin. I have them at the same rating: Tilts D. Both of them are more likely than not to elect a Democratic governor. Both are less likely than Michigan to do the same, however. Actually, if you read my analysis I said that Wisconsin is somewhere between Iowa and Michigan, which means that, gun to my head, I do believe Wisconsin is more likely to go D than Iowa, mainly on account of the strength of Evers as a candidate.

Second, I don't buy the notion that Iowa is a redder state. It's more elastic. It went for Trump harder, sure, but both states voted for Obama twice, and while Wisconsin had some strong special elections, Iowa has had an even larger swing in its direction in the special elections. Take a look, it's insane! That's basically the sole reason I'm giving Ds an advantage in Iowa, because of how much the electorate snapped to the Ds in special elections. It happened in Wisconsin too, but to a lesser extent. There is ABSOLUTELY a blue wave in Iowa right now, it's not exactly Florida or Connecticut in that regard.

As to your argument about Iowa having 2 Republican senators, well, both states had GOP wins in 2010 and 2014. Wisconsin's D senator is a product of luck more than anything else; it's the state that had a senate election in the D-friendly 2012.

My point is, calm down. If you have Iowa as likely r and Wisconsin as likely d, that's your opinion. I'm sharing mine. We can discuss, debate, and compare/contrast, but I'd appreciate it if you didn't go for the throat next time

I'm very sorry. I did come off as a little harsh. My apologies. I realized that I made a mistake once Zaybay clarified, and now that you've clarified your stance, it makes a lot more sense now.

I wasn't trying to go down your throat, I just worded it in a way in which it did seem that way. I'm a nice person, I promise. You can always message me anytime.

I really appreciate that! I'm sorry we had to start off on the wrong foot like this, but hey, first impressions aren't everything, right? Feel free to message me anytime as well

Yup, it's all good

[Scottholes 2.0]

My current prediction:



With Tossups:

Predictions look good, except for a couple states: I'm a little skeptical about Ohio and Iowa. Just my opinion and I'm probably in the minority.

[Scottholes 2.0]

My Predictions -

Safe R: MD, NH, AL, SD, SC, AR, MA, NE
Likely R: ID,  TX, VT, KS, AZ, TN
Lean R: OH, IA, WI, NV, FL
Tossup: ME, MN
Lean D: OR, MI
Likely D: IL
Safe D: CA

Conclusion: I guarentee you that polls will show Walker and Reynolds leading in Wisconsin and Iowa. The Democrats are over-optimistic they're going to win WI -  state that voted for a GOP governor three times by a landslide. Guess what? He ain't beatable! As for Iowa, that state is done for Dems.

A red tsunami is looming!

You've got some valid points, but, troll, much?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, MA, NE, TX, WY
Likely R: KY (19), MD, NH, SC, SD, TN, VT
Lean R: AK, AZ, OK
Tossup: GA, IA, KS, ME, MS (19), OH, WI
Lean D: CT, FL, NV, RI
Likely D: CO, IL, LA (19), MI, MN, PA, OR, NM
Safe D: CA, HI, NY

How do you have Wisconsin as a tossup but Florida as 'Lean D' when Evers' RCP average in WI is actually higher than Gillum's? Florida is definitety a lean D race, but so is Wisconsin.