2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[wesmoorenerd]

Inspired by Spenstar's wonderful five Senate scenarios for 2018, here are my eight Gubernatorial scenarios for 2018, ranked from worst for Democrats/best for Republicans to best for Democrats/worst for Republicans. The most likely result, of course, is probably not one of the maps below - it's still early and a lot could happen. That said, let's start with:

Scenario 1: Trump's America



Democrats 10 (-6), Republicans 40 (+7), Independents 0 (-1)

The Red Wave was real. Trump supporters and Republican Atlas hacks rejoice across the nation as the Republicans gain an absolutely unprecedented degree of control over the nation. Why? A combination of the economy staying strong and Trump somehow becoming palatable. The Democrats have no answers, as the Democratic Party proves to be, once and for all, completely incompetent on the state level.

In short, Democrats lose every seat other than California, Hawaii, and New York. Everyone else from Kate Brown to Gina Raimondo to Tom Wolf is forced out in a shocking upset of a wave. Democrats flip absolutely zero Republican seats, with even Bruce Rauner managing to stay afloat. The thought of flipping seats like New Mexico are a distant memory. Democrats are absolutely not favored to win anything in 2019 and the prospects of unseating Trump in 2020 just got a lot dimmer. It's hard to say what will happen next, but it's certainly not the enactment of progressive policies. With massive Republican gains in the Senate and even minor gains in the House, Trumpism has taken over the nation.

Scenario 2: Democratic Disappointment



Democrats 14 (-2), Republicans 36 (+3), Independents 0 (-1)

The Democrats had an opportunity. An unpopular President and a country hungry for change. They waste that opportunity completely. Needless to say, Democratic leadership is forced out. If there's a silver lining to this scenario for Democrats, they have fresh new leadership that will hopefully be competent.

J.B. Prtizker manage to pick up Illinois, but this is offset by losses in Colorado, Connecticut, and Minnesota. Democrats in every race see much scarier margins than they were anticipating as the expected turnout of anti-Trump voters completely fails to materialize. Again, the Democrats are probably going to remain fairly irrelevant at the state level throughout more than just Obama’s presidency. Trump remains a slim favorite in 2020 and Republicans make gains in both houses. The DNC has failed, big time.


Scenario 3: The Status Quo



Democrats 18 (+2), Republicans 32 (-1), Independents 0 (-1)

Not much changes. The Democrats failed to fully capitalize upon Trump’s unpopularity and only ended up making modest gains. The Republicans lose a bit but breathe a sigh of relief as it could’ve been far worse. Democrats are unhappy but it could’ve been worse.

The Dems narrowly end up losing Connecticut to a strong GOP campaign that toasts poor Ned Lamont for yet another time, but the news from elsewhere is mostly positive. Michelle Lujan Grisham and Janet Mills (as of writing this not all Maine votes have been counted yet) win narrowly while J.B. Pritzker wins comfortably. Overall, a missed opportunity perhaps, but still gains for the Dems at least. The Democrats make gains in the House but fail to capture the chamber while the Republicans gain a few seats there and lose a few seats there in the Senate.

Scenario 4: About What Everyone Expected



Democrats 22 (+6), Republicans 28 (-5), Independents 0 (-1)

Political junkies are slightly disappointed by the lack of surprises. Most races split cleanly for the favorite candidate in a decent night for the Democrats. Backlash against Trump results in a “Blue Ripple” that fails to match up to the Republican waves of the Obama years, but still gives the Democrats a foothold in a hostile national environment.

Democrats protect all of their seats, while Rauner gets predictably blanched and the Republicans lose five open seats, welcoming Governors Lujan Grisham, Mills, Whitmer, Sisolak, and Levine. Incumbent Democrats win comfortably and the Democrats look toward 2019 with optimism. The Democrats take the House and make minor gains in the Senate.

Scenario 5: A Good Night for Dems



Democrats 24 (+8), Republicans 25 (-8), Independents 1 (-)

Democrats have a good night as the blue wave comes out in force. Cementing themselves as opposition to the horrors of the Trump administration, Democrats make gains all across the nation and set themselves up for two years of obstructing conservatism.

Democrats end up winning all seats that they did in Scenario 5, in addition to victories from Cordray in Ohio and Evers in Wisconsin. Republicans fail to gain anything as Walker manages a narrow win in Alaska. Overall, with high single digit gains in Governor’s Mansions and capturing both chambers of Congress, the Democrats set themselves up for two years of strength as they look eagerly to 2019 and 2020.

Scenario 6: A Great Night for Dems



Democrats 27 (+11), Republicans 22 (-11), Independents 1 (-)

2018 goes down in the history books as a massive wave. Democrats capture an actual majority of Governor’s Mansions as they make strong gains in the House and the Senate. Despite the presence of Trump in the White House, Democrats completely control every other level and branch of government.

Democrats end up winning all seats that they did in Scenario 6, in addition to Hubbell in Iowa, Baker in Maryland, and Kelly in New Hampshire. Rauner loses by high double digits. Democrats do great in the House, winning upwards of 40 seats and managing a majority in the Senate with decent margins. Democrats are almost as strong as the Republicans were in 2010.

Scenario 7: The Blue Wave



Democrats 33 (+17), Republicans 17 (-16), Independents 0 (-1)

Nobody could’ve prepared themselves for this. Despite Trump’s presence in the White House, the Democrats have a commanding majority of Governor’s Mansions and gain enough seats in the House and Senate that not only can they obstruct Republican legislation effectively but pass bipartisan legislation by themselves.

Democrats win all seats in Scenario 7 plus Kelly in Kansas, Garcia in Arizona, Dean in Tennessee, Abrams in Georgia, and Edmondson in Oklahoma. Notice that Independents are back to 0 seats: Mark Begich wins in Alaska. Democrats have outdone the Republicans’ wave in 2010.

Scenario 8: N U T

 

Democrats 38 (+22), Republicans 12 (-21), Independents 0 (-1)

Solid’s wildest dreams come true as the Democrats win in an election that can only be described as defying logic. Even with Trump, Democrats take control of the American government.

Who in their wildest dreams could’ve predicted Governors Sutton, Hallquist, Gonzales, Smith, and Valdez? Well, I just did. Unfortunately, this will only happen in my dreams. But hey, it’s a nice thought.

[wesmoorenerd]

Progressively lazier writing pieces aside, here are my actual gubernatorial ratings:

With Tossups


No Tossups

[wesmoorenerd]

Scenario 1 (Trump's Playground): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4nde

Scenario 2 (Lear was Right): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/xN67

Scenario 3 (No Blue Wave): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/xelv

Scenario 4 (Meh): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/myLj

Scenario 5 (Democrats rebound): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/mP6v

Scenario 6 (Democrats retake the mansions): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/xa6e

Scenario 7 (BIG Blue Wave): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4Bpl

Scenario 8 (The Flood): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4A8l

Scenario 9 (The Blue Armageddon): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4dJP

Scenario 10 (WAKE UP THIS MUST BE A DREAM): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/x5ag

Poor Lupe Valdez can't even win in the dream scenario ;_;

[wesmoorenerd]

Scenario 1 (Trump's Playground): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4nde

Scenario 2 (Lear was Right): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/xN67

Scenario 3 (No Blue Wave): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/xelv

Scenario 4 (Meh): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/myLj

Scenario 5 (Democrats rebound): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/mP6v

Scenario 6 (Democrats retake the mansions): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/xa6e

Scenario 7 (BIG Blue Wave): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4Bpl

Scenario 8 (The Flood): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4A8l

Scenario 9 (The Blue Armageddon): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4dJP

Scenario 10 (WAKE UP THIS MUST BE A DREAM): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/x5ag

Poor Lupe Valdez can't even win in the dream scenario ;_;

Honestly, Bob Krist, Walt Maddox, Mary Throne, Paulette Jordan, and even Christine Hallquist and Jay Gonzalez are more likely to win than her.

I mean I agree that she's not a good candidate but a Democrat, even a bad one, is infinitely more likely to win the governorship of Texas than f****** Wyoming or Alabama, even with a decent candidate like Walt Maddox.

[wesmoorenerd]

Scenario 1 (Trump's Playground): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4nde

Scenario 2 (Lear was Right): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/xN67

Scenario 3 (No Blue Wave): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/xelv

Scenario 4 (Meh): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/myLj

Scenario 5 (Democrats rebound): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/mP6v

Scenario 6 (Democrats retake the mansions): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/xa6e

Scenario 7 (BIG Blue Wave): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4Bpl

Scenario 8 (The Flood): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4A8l

Scenario 9 (The Blue Armageddon): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/4dJP

Scenario 10 (WAKE UP THIS MUST BE A DREAM): http://www.270towin.com/2018-governor-election/x5ag

Poor Lupe Valdez can't even win in the dream scenario ;_;

Honestly, Bob Krist, Walt Maddox, Mary Throne, Paulette Jordan, and even Christine Hallquist and Jay Gonzalez are more likely to win than her.

I mean I agree that she's not a good candidate but a Democrat, even a bad one, is infinitely more likely to win the governorship of Texas than f****** Wyoming or Alabama, even with a decent candidate like Walt Maddox.

The reason is because Greg Abbott is really popular.

And Kay Ivey isn't? Her approval ratings are ten points higher than Abbott's in a state that's both more conservative and less elastic.

[wesmoorenerd]

WY is much more elastic than TX and doesn’t have a popular incumbent Republican governor running for reelection. Obviously it’s more likely to flip than TX (and so is AL).

You didn't address Alabama. Alabama is even less elastic than TX and has an even more popular incumbent Republican. Not to mention, it's more conservative.

[wesmoorenerd]

WY is much more elastic than TX and doesn’t have a popular incumbent Republican governor running for reelection. Obviously it’s more likely to flip than TX (and so is AL).

You didn't address Alabama. Alabama is even less elastic than TX and has an even more popular incumbent Republican. Not to mention, it's more conservative.

Walt Maddox is a really strong candidate with decent crossover appeal. It's not likely, but it could happen.

Maddox is obviously a much stronger candidate than Valdez, but I just really can't see him winning in any scenario. The problem with predicting Maddox's victory is more than just the fact that he's running in one of the most solidly Republican states in the US that also happens to be one of the least elastic. Alabama is one of the only states that I don't see the national "blue wave" environment helping the Democrats much in. Trump's approval ratings in Alabama have been hovering around 60%: appeals to the anti-Trump vote will actually be counterproductive there by encouraging pro-Trump turnout. And before you mention Doug Jones, I'm willing to bet Jones would've lost if the election had taken place as part of the regular election cycle without peculiar special election turnout like the gubernatorial election will, not to mention Kay Ivey is on another plane of existence in terms of candidate quality compared to Roy Moore.

[wesmoorenerd]

I think you underestimate how separate winning federal races is from gubernatorial ones, where candidate quality matters a lot more and races are more elastic. Democrats had governors in OK, WY, MO, KY, KS, and TN not too long ago and I would not be shocked to see 1-2 deep red states to go the Demcratss way this cycle.

I absolutely wouldn't be shocked to see 1-2 deep red states go to the Democrats. I would be shocked if Alabama was one of those states. Oklahoma? Sure, Edmondson is a strong candidate and the environment in Oklahoma is very much not in the Republicans' favor post Fallin. Tennessee? Perhaps. Dean is also strong. Even South Dakota has a better chance than Alabama though. Alabama's just not elastic enough for a Democrat to even come close to unseating an extremely popular Republican incumbent. Maddox will put up a fight but he has a minuscule chance of winning.

[wesmoorenerd]

Maddox is obviously a much stronger candidate than Valdez, but I just really can't see him winning in any scenario. The problem with predicting Maddox's victory is more than just the fact that he's running in one of the most solidly Republican states in the US that also happens to be one of the least elastic. Alabama is one of the only states that I don't see the national "blue wave" environment helping the Democrats much in. Trump's approval ratings in Alabama have been hovering around 60%: appeals to the anti-Trump vote will actually be counterproductive there by encouraging pro-Trump turnout. And before you mention Doug Jones, I'm willing to bet Jones would've lost if the election had taken place as part of the regular election cycle without peculiar special election turnout like the gubernatorial election will, not to mention Kay Ivey is on another plane of existence in terms of candidate quality compared to Roy Moore.

I'm not optimistic about Democrats winning another high profile statewide office in Alabama, but the Senate special election had more votes cast in it than the 2014 Governor's race. It was a couple hundred thousand more too.

Special elections can have really low turnout that favors the party that is most energized, but in high profile special elections that involve a lot of money and attention, turnout can approach or surpass general election turnout. This has been the case for numerous US House special elections since 2016 as well.

The thing about turnout in the Alabama special wasn't that it was low, it was that it was lopsided. Turnout was severely depressed in Republican areas and high in Democratic areas. Moore had the percentage of his base voting for him over Jones he needed to win, but he didn't have the percentage of his base voting at all he needed, if that makes sense.

[wesmoorenerd]

The thing about turnout in the Alabama special wasn't that it was low, it was that it was lopsided. Turnout was severely depressed in Republican areas and high in Democratic areas. Moore had the percentage of his base voting for him over Jones he needed to win, but he didn't have the percentage of his base voting at all he needed, if that makes sense.

Perhaps - but is there any guarantee that would not happen to some extent in a general election, even if the people turn out but leave it blank for Senate? I mean, look back to 2012, Moore barely won in a high turnout election if I recall correctly. You don't need low or lopsided turnout to win in Alabama if the candidate is messed up enough.

Moore was a bad enough candidate, and affected turnout severely enough, to lose. However, the fact is Alabama has a slate of six GOP reps, not mention state reps and mayors, all of whom would be better than Moore. None of these candidates would have Moore's turnout issues.

[wesmoorenerd]

My personal ranking of the top eleven states most likely to flip to the Democrats:

1. Illinois
2. New Mexico
3. Maine
4. Nevada
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin
7. Florida
8. Ohio
9. Iowa
10. Georgia
11. Arizona

I'd say the Democrats are favored, even if by slight margins in some cases, in the top six (IL, NM, ME, NV, MI, WI). Florida right now is essentially a coin toss since there are still so many factors, with the primaries still a ways away. Ohio might honestly be a coin toss at this point too, I'd struggle to argue that DeWine is still a clear favorite at this point in the race. The last three (IA, GA, AZ) all seem to be trending in the Democrats' direction if you ask me, between Hubbell proving to be a surprisingly strong candidate, Cagle and Kemp slowly getting destroyed in the runoff, and AZ generally staying quiet but with the strong possibility of an upset. All of them still have a good amount of ground for the Dems to make up, though. If the election were to happen today, I'd say the Dems gain anywhere from 6-8 seats.

[wesmoorenerd]

Hot new gubernatorial ratings:

[wesmoorenerd]

-snip-

Scenario 8 + SD is pretty much the limit. I don't see any way the Dems pick up Nebraska or Vermont this year, sadly.

Scenario 5 is probably the most likely scenario, perhaps with GA and IA flipping as well.

Scenario 3 is probably a realistic minimum.

[wesmoorenerd]

Changes:

Vermont: Lean R ===> Likely R

Ohio: Lean D ===> Tilt D

Maryland: Lean R ===> Likely R

Wisconsin: Likely D ===> Lean D

Rhode Island: Tilt D ===> Tilt R

Alaska: Likley R ===> Lean R

Iowa and SD both at Lean R? Bold.

[wesmoorenerd]

Okay, it's time for a big update!

On the one hand, Arizona and Oklahoma move to Tossup on account of the matchups being pretty good for Democrats. Garcia won in Arizona, and Stitt won in Oklahoma. On the other hand, Florida moves to Leans R due to Graham losing the primary.

So now we have seven tossups. Holy Stitt. Just for the sake of cleaning up the category, I'll move two races out of the tossup column that I don't actually think are tossups: Iowa, with its massive special election swings towards Democrats and its elasticity, will move to Tilts Democratic. Rhode Island, with its unpopular Democratic governor, moves to Tilts Republican.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, WI, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
GA, NV, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (5)
AK, OH, KS, OK, AZ

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
RI

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
TN, FL

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.7, R-8.2
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

Oklahoma more likely to flip than Florida? Rhode Island at Tilt R? Lmao wtf is this

[wesmoorenerd]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

This list is a joke! The fact that you think Iowa is more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than WISCONSIN (when Iowa is REDDER than Wisconsin, voted for Trump at a much higher margin, has much less urbanization than Wisconsin, and has 2 Republican U.S. senators) pretty much discredits your entire list. WI is a state that has had three seats flipped this year and a Trump approval rating of only 41 percent (compared to Iowa's 45 percent), while there is virtually no proof of a blue wave occurring in Iowa, yet you think Iowa will lean more Democratic just because WI's most unpopular/polarized incumbent has some sort of "incumbency advantage."

I'm not saying Walker will win, for sure, but thinking Iowa tilts more D in this election than WI is very comical. Evers obviously has more of an advantage than Hubbell and is leading in the polls thus far. Hubbell hasn't lead in any.

Okay. Okay okay okay.

First of all, I don't have Iowa as more Democratic than Wisconsin. I have them at the same rating: Tilts D. Both of them are more likely than not to elect a Democratic governor. Both are less likely than Michigan to do the same, however. Actually, if you read my analysis I said that Wisconsin is somewhere between Iowa and Michigan, which means that, gun to my head, I do believe Wisconsin is more likely to go D than Iowa, mainly on account of the strength of Evers as a candidate.

Second, I don't buy the notion that Iowa is a redder state. It's more elastic. It went for Trump harder, sure, but both states voted for Obama twice, and while Wisconsin had some strong special elections, Iowa has had an even larger swing in its direction in the special elections. Take a look, it's insane! That's basically the sole reason I'm giving Ds an advantage in Iowa, because of how much the electorate snapped to the Ds in special elections. It happened in Wisconsin too, but to a lesser extent. There is ABSOLUTELY a blue wave in Iowa right now, it's not exactly Florida or Connecticut in that regard.

As to your argument about Iowa having 2 Republican senators, well, both states had GOP wins in 2010 and 2014. Wisconsin's D senator is a product of luck more than anything else; it's the state that had a senate election in the D-friendly 2012.

My point is, calm down. If you have Iowa as likely r and Wisconsin as likely d, that's your opinion. I'm sharing mine. We can discuss, debate, and compare/contrast, but I'd appreciate it if you didn't go for the throat next time

I'm very sorry. I did come off as a little harsh. My apologies. I realized that I made a mistake once Zaybay clarified, and now that you've clarified your stance, it makes a lot more sense now.

I wasn't trying to go down your throat, I just worded it in a way in which it did seem that way. I'm a nice person, I promise. You can always message me anytime.

I really appreciate that! I'm sorry we had to start off on the wrong foot like this, but hey, first impressions aren't everything, right? Feel free to message me anytime as well

Yup, it's all good

Atlas kindness is so heartwarming