2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[DaWN]

Safe D: California, New York, Pennsylvania
Likely D: Colorado, Minnesota
Lean D: Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Rhode Island
Tossup: Alaska, Florida, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin
Lean R: Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, New Hampshire, Kansas
Likely R: Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont
Safe R: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming

Ones I'm not sure about
Pennsylvania: I don't really see how Wolf loses if 2018 turns out to be a wave, but if things get better for the GOP I'll be ready to move it down
Illinois: I don't like rating incumbents below Lean for the other party and given the circumstances Pritzker's polling numbers are pretty pathetic. This'll probably move by November.
Rhode Island: Lean D seems fair for now, although it could certainly move.
Nevada: I see the case for Lean D, but I'll err on the side of caution for now
Georgia: Has the hallmarks of a tossup race but I think the runoff will be Abrams' undoing (although she could certainly win)
South Carolina/South Dakota: I think both are sleepers given the good D candidates but I doubt either of them flip tbh. Any decent polling from either state can up them to safe. Once again erring on side of caution.

[DaWN]

Safe D: California, New York, Pennsylvania
Likely D: Colorado, Minnesota
Lean D: Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Rhode Island
Tossup: Alaska, Florida, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin
Lean R: Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, New Hampshire, Kansas
Likely R: Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont
Safe R: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming

CHANGE
Florida: Tossup -> Lean R

[DaWN]

Safe D: California, New York, Pennsylvania
Likely D: Colorado, Minnesota
Lean D: Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Rhode Island
Tossup: Alaska, Florida, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin
Lean R: Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, New Hampshire, Kansas
Likely R: Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont
Safe R: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming

CHANGE
Florida: Tossup -> Lean R

In light of the new PPP poll, this appears to have been too hasty a change. It goes back to Tossup for now.

[DaWN]

Safe D: California, New York, Pennsylvania
Likely D: Colorado, Minnesota
Lean D: Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island
Tossup: Alaska, Florida, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin
Lean R: Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, New Hampshire, Kansas
Likely R: Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont
Safe R: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming

CHANGE
Michigan: Lean D -> Likely D
New Mexico: Lean D -> Likely D

And with a complimentary map

[DaWN]

CHANGE
Florida: Tossup -> Lean D
Kansas: Lean R -> Tossup

[DaWN]

CHANGES
Alaska: Tossup -> Likely R
It seems Walker probably would have lost anyway, but Begich has pretty much finished this one.
Arizona: Lean R -> Likely R
Apparently appointing a new Senator can win you an election. Who knew?
Connecticut: Lean D -> Likely D
I was definitely being too harsh on Lamont. Looking pretty likely he'll win by a comfortable but not spectacular margin.
Illinois: Lean D -> Likely D
Pritzker is still an appalling candidate, but it seems he's finally getting above the low 40s in polls. I imagine this'll probably be a pretty easy R gain in 2022 regardless of who's in the White House.
Maryland: Lean R -> Likely R
See Connecticut but reverse the parties. Pretty pathetic Dems haven't made this one competitive.
South Dakota: Likely R -> Lean R
Out of a gut feeling more than anything else. Pretty weird Sutton could win while Heitkamp loses (although I don't think it's all that likely)

[DaWN]

CHANGE
Iowa: Lean R -> Tossup
I'm still bulilsh on Reynolds but I was definitely being overly generous to her
Maine: Tossup -> Lean D
Mills has led by decent amounts in pretty much all recent polling - she definitely has an advantage even if it isn't a big one
Nevada: Tossup -> Lean D
Mainly because I'm starting to weed out unnecessary tossups, but also because I'm beginning to doubt that Laxalt will overperform by Heller by that much like I thought before.
South Dakota: Lean R -> Tossup
This one is obviously competitive. I think who wins depends on how much of a Dem year this ends up being.

[DaWN]

CHANGE
Alaska: Likely R -> Lean R
Looks like Mr Begich may have a better chance than I previously gave him. Still think he loses but it'll be at least closer.
Georgia: Lean R -> Tossup
Out of caution. There'll probably be a runoff and I think Abrams will struggle in that (hence the previous rating) but I think there's enough uncertainty to warrant this move.
South Carolina: Likely R -> Safe R
Not much comment needed. There was some upset potential here but that has disappeared now this late in the game.

I forgot WY on my last map. Usually I'd add it back in but I can't really be bothered if I'm honest. Was Safe R, now Safe R.

Barring any late shocks, these will be my final ratings going into Tuesday.