2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[smoltchanov]

Depends. If Malloy runs - Connecticut can flip. If Scott Avedisian will finally run for Governor, not Warwick mayor - Rhode Island becomes very competitive.And so on in may other cases... And i would put Democratic chances in present day Georgia and Arizona higher then  in present day Iowa and Ohio...

[smoltchanov]

I'm not sure about Kansas. There was a massive swing against Brownback in 2014 during a republican wave year, and it's not like things have gotten any better.

Depends on candidate. "Second incarnation of Brownback" - can lose, otherwise state will stay Republican.

[smoltchanov]

^ You forgot Tennessee, Texas, Oregon and Vermont.

[smoltchanov]

^ Obviously - very cautious ratings. But for now i use almost identical ones (may be - only Illinois, with all Rauner's problems, is Lean D in my book, but even here Pritzker doesn't impress me at all). IMHO - real ratings may be made only AFTER primaries, and preferrably - no more then a month before election (i frequently mention an example of 2014, where a month (or, may be, month and a half) before rather disastrous election, Democrats on DKE and other sites were rather bullish about results).

[smoltchanov]

2 westroopnerd. Yours could be my map too. With exceptions of Connecticut and Minnesota, which i would hold as tossup untill present mess will be sorted...

[smoltchanov]

VT can go into runoff if Scott fails to get 50, it's not Safe R

No runoffs in Vermont. Legislature chooses in such case. And always chosees plurality winner.