Austrian Presidential runoff re-vote (Dec. 4) - Your Predictions

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

51.8% Alexander Van der Bellen (Green)
48.2% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

Turnout: 65.4% (it will drop significantly from the 73% in the May runoff)

[peterthlee]

I’ve been predicting all around and I’m jeered by the US Election results this year.
This will be my WILD GUESS.

Nationwide (AT): Van der Bellen 53-47
-----------------------------------------
Burgenland (BL): Safe FPO-Solid, Hofer 58-42
Carinthia (KT): Safe FPO-Strong, Hofer 56-44
Styria (SR): Likely FPO, Hofer 53-47
Salzburg (SB): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 50.5-49.5
Lower Austria (NH): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 51-49
Upper Austria (OH): Likely I, Van der Bellen 54-46
Tyrol (TR): Safe I-Strong, Van der Bellen 57-43
Vorarlberg (VB): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 62-38
Vienna (WN): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 67-33

[Lord Halifax]

Norbert Hofer 50.3%
Alexander Van der Bellen 49.7%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Austria is having a presidential election? Wow, I never even heard.

[peterthlee]

Austria has always had direct presidential elections. However, the previous ones were gerrymandered by the governing coalition of SPO and OVP. This election is placed under spotlight because neither SPO nor OVP advanced to the runoff. In addition, in political practice, the president holds nominal power and the chancellor runs the country from day to day. Norbert Gerwald Hofer would like to stick to the constitution (implementing a semi-presidential system).

[Max Stirner]

hofer 55

[jaichind]

Hofer 51-49

[peterthlee]

http://tsjh301.blogspot.hk/2016/11/austrianpresidentialelection2016.html
(from a Taiwanese website)
Probability: Hofer 55.8-44.2
PV: Hofer 50.72-49.28
(similar to jaichind)

[Xing]

Hofer 51.7%
Van der Bellen 48.3%

[DavidB.]

Hofer 50.9%
Van der Bellen 49.1%

[Tender Branson]

Why are y'all predicting a Hofer win ?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Why are y'all predicting a Hofer win ?

#trumpeffect or whatever i guess. ^^

seems more likely atm too, imho.....some people are voting for the fourth time this year and the "wutbuerger" could be more motivated than cross-over VDB voters.

[SNJ1985]

Hofer 51-49

[Beezer]

Something will cause the vote to be postponed.

[Tender Branson]

Something will cause the vote to be postponed.

Nope. Not anymore.

But someone can still challenge the result again ...

For example because the number of eligible voters was updated for Dec. 4 - even though the Constitutional Court ruled that there needs to be a 1:1 re-vote. Which means the same voters as in the original runoff, and not including citizens who have reached voting age in the meantime ...

[Zanas]

Hofer 54
Van der Bellen 46

[kyc0705]

Hofer wins, 51-49.

[Tender Branson]

Another prediction:

We'll likely see fewer postal ballot requests this time compared with the May runoff.

The May runoff set a new record for requested postal ballots (about 900.000), but the "glue-gate" will likely lead many people to go back to precinct voting.

My estimate would be 650.000 ballots this time. We should know next Saturday (Dec. 3) how many people requested one.

[PresidentSamTilden]

Hofer +3

[Helsinkian]

Hofer +2

[Axel Foley]

Hofer 52-48

[/]

Hofer 53-47

[kyc0705]

Why are y'all predicting a Hofer win ?

I'm not going to keep underestimating the potency of 2016's right-wing populism streak.

[Axel Foley]

It's the year of populism and underdogs. Still hope to be wrong.

[Ljube]

Hofer +2