TX - Perry leads Strayhorn in Republican primary poll

[Sam Spade]

Top of the line numbers (with article below):

Perry 55%, Strayhorn 29%

(last poll they did in December showed Perry 56%, Strayhorn 30%)

Survey was among 905 Texans who said that they voted in at least one of the last two Republican primaries from June 27 to July 1.  (Texas has no party registration and a fairly open primary system)  Margin of error was 3.3%.

Montgomery & Associates, who conducted this poll, says it conducted the survey independently, although in partisan political contests the firm works for Democratic candidates.

http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2005/07/11/daily12.html?from_rss=1
Poll: GOP voters back Perry over Strayhorn

GOP primary voters in Texas favor Gov. Rick Perry over challenger State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn by a 2-to-1 margin, according to a poll released Tuesday by an independent research firm in Austin.

In the poll by Montgomery & Associates Inc., respondents were asked how they would vote in a gubernatorial primary featuring Perry and Strayhorn. Nearly 55 percent said they would vote for Perry, compared with 29 percent for Strayhorn.

Perry and Strayhorn are set to square off in next year's Republican gubernatorial primary.

"This race is clearly Governor Perry's to lose," says Jeff Montgomery, president of Montgomery & Associates.

In a similar Montgomery & Associates poll in December, Perry led Strayhorn 56 percent to 30 percent.

[King]

Damn.

[Sam Spade]

Damn.

About what I would predict for this point in the race.  Perry will be the favorite.  He will have the support of the party bigwigs as well as the dominant socially conservative wing of the Republican Party.

Strayhorn needs to have the Democrats either nominate some obvious loser candidates (Chris Bell, Martin Frost) or nominate no one (which is also a realistic possibilitiy) in order to win here I would think.  This would allow Democrats to perceive the governor's race as being all about the Republican primary and cause them to switch parties in that primary in order to vote for the more liberal Strayhorn.

Both candidates have their weaknesses from a purely political point of view.

Perry often appears smarmy, out-of-touch and doesn't connect greatly with the average voter.

Strayhorn is sort of like a moderate Republican's version of Tom Coburn.  She has no problem with saying what's on her mind about whatever's going on at the statewide level, but often suffers from that Oklahoma politican's most common trait:  "foot-in-mouth disease".

[M]

If Frost is an "obvious loser", than the Dems are truly through. Frost and Ken Bentsen are probably the best overall politicans they have, and Cuellar and Chet Edwards the best positioned policy-wise. Bell is a joke, though.

Strayhorn might break 70% if nominated- but that's a huge if. Still- 30% in a state and party thatvalue political discipline and decorum is  not bad. It means that Perry is in rough shape if after his recent see-through right-wing posturing, he still only has 55 support among party loyalists. Plus, we have open primaries... especially in Travis County, look for Strayhorn Dems and independents.

All things considered, this IS Perry's to lose- but he could very well do it. Betcha disappointed Strayhornies would vote for Kinky... the Austin ones, anyway. At this point, I'm starting to get a little disappointed Kay Bailey didn't come in (although I've been against it when it was in question).

[Storebought]

I took one look at Strayhorn and thought, "Maw Richards II." I'm pretty certain most TX voters have thought the same thing.

It is all pretty inconsequential; Dewhurst and Tom Craddick run this state anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

I took one look at Strayhorn and thought, "Maw Richards II." I'm pretty certain most TX voters have thought the same thing.

I think the same thing but she would be the Republican Richards and that's fine with me.