Post your preliminary prediction and see how close it was in 2020.
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  Post your preliminary prediction and see how close it was in 2020.
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Author Topic: Post your preliminary prediction and see how close it was in 2020.  (Read 3558 times)
AGA
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« on: November 20, 2016, 06:10:13 PM »

Whoever predicts the election most accurately from four years away will receive accolades.

If the Trump presidency is very unpopular, this could happen.


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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2016, 08:12:10 PM »

Cotton/Scott (R) 48% / 269 EV
Gillibrand/Baldwin (D) 49% / 269 EV
Others 3%
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2016, 11:18:11 PM »


Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 325 EV 49.4%
Elizabeth Warren/Sherrod Brown-Democratic: 213 EV 48.1%

I don't know but incumbents usually win, plus the Democrats may shift too far to the left. So here's my take.
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2016, 12:27:00 AM »



Trump / Pence 363
Harris / Heinrich 175
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2016, 12:31:40 AM »



Trump goes down, freiwal returns.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2016, 12:32:40 AM »

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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2016, 12:52:52 AM »


Switch Texas and Iowa to the Democrats column and this might be believable.
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emcee0
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2016, 12:58:24 AM »

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Crumpets
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2016, 01:09:20 AM »
« Edited: November 21, 2016, 01:14:11 AM by Crumpets »

I'll go double or nothing and post a map for the Democratic primaries too:



Kamala Harris
Elizabeth Warren
Al Franken
Bill DeBlasio

The scenario: At the time of the Iowa primaries, the field has narrowed to Harris, Warren, Franken, DeBlasio, and Brown. Franken wins Iowa, Warren New Hampshire and Harris South Carolina with a strong second-place showing from DeBlasio. Brown drops out early, and DeBlasio goes on to only win a couple of states, dropping out before New York due to bad polling. The rest of the primaries is a three-way race between Harris, whose base is minority voters, Warren, who takes on the Obama-to-Bernie coalition, and Franken who is strongest among whites, men, and generally the type of voters Democrats are having issues attracting.

There is no majority in the delegate vote, but Harris has a clear plurality at the end of the primaries. To avoid convention chaos, they announce a deal whereby Franken is made Harris's running mate and Warren gets to be top pick for any Supreme Court vacancies.

The general election:



Harris/Franken 294
Trump/Pence 244

Trump has an approval rating around 40% in 2020. Nonetheless, he still polls ahead of Harris for most of the campaign. Around September, however, the general malaise of the country catches up to him, and Harris runs a solid campaign with practically no noticeable scandals. Trump solidifies the GOP hold on Iowa and Ohio, but Harris manages to win back Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania for the win. North Carolina and Florida are both squeakers and aren't called for days after the election, with Florida eventually going to Trump and North Carolina to Harris. Despite Democratic hopes to continue expanding the map, Arizona and Georgia both stay around the same numbers as in 2016. Texas moves ever closer to voting Dem, but Trump still wins by about 4-5 points.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2016, 02:33:33 AM »


Which Democrats would be able to win SC and MT, though?

I am guessing the ticket is Al Franken/John Bel Edwards or Steve Bullock.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2016, 03:41:36 AM »

since predicting a battleground map right now is way difficult, i'mma go with this route instead


trump — 537 e.v.s* and 99.57%p.v.
*one faithless elector from utah is summarily convicted of treason shortly after the electoral votes are counted
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Ljube
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« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2016, 05:43:19 AM »




Trump - 369
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2016, 08:00:34 AM »

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SWE
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« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2016, 03:58:14 PM »

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Higgs
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« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2016, 04:37:50 PM »

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Orser67
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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2016, 04:49:15 PM »

I think Trump's presidency is more likely than not to be unpopular, and I think Dems will be able to unify in opposition to Trump and take all the 2016 battleground states except Iowa.



Kamala Harris/Tim Ryan 53
Trump/Pence 45
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2016, 04:55:23 PM »

Either:



President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) - 336 electoral votes, 48.9% of the popular vote
Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) - 202 electoral votes, 46.1% of the popular vote

Or



Former Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)/Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV) - 307 electoral votes, 51.1% of the popular vote
President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) - 231 electoral votes, 45.3% of the popular vote
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2016, 11:18:48 AM »

If he does relatively poorly during his first time:



If he does relatively well, I don't see him doing much better than in 2016:

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Person Man
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« Reply #18 on: November 22, 2016, 11:59:05 AM »

He will probably win.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/kNRgd
Trump 50 Generic D 48

If we are screwed and he gets blamed

http://www.270towin.com/maps/jm2xo
Trump 44 Generic D 52
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Figueira
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« Reply #19 on: November 22, 2016, 12:25:54 PM »

Eh, I'll start out with this prediction:

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Spark
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2016, 01:16:53 PM »

If the Democrats get their act together and Trump has a rough presidency: (I fear this match-up IMO)



Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) -  422 EVs, (52.6%)
President Donald J. Trump (R-NY) / Vice-President Michael R. Pence (R-IN) - 116 EVs, (43.0%)

If not and Trump delivers on his promises:



President Donald J. Trump (R-NY) / Vice-President Michael R. Pence - 315 EVs, (52.2%)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) / Senator Al Franken (D-MN) - 223 EVs, (45.7%)

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Ljube
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« Reply #21 on: November 22, 2016, 01:49:44 PM »

Interesting.

Hardly anyone is predicting Trump winning CT, RI and DE.

I wonder why. Trump is a perfect fit for those three states.
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Figueira
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« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2016, 01:52:18 PM »

Interesting.

Hardly anyone is predicting Trump winning CT, RI and DE.

I wonder why. Trump is a perfect fit for those three states.


How on Earth is Trump a "perfect fit" for Connecticut?

Anyway, those states are just way too partisan to consider voting for a Republican. I mean, sure, in a 40-state landslide those states might flip, but that isn't happening.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #23 on: November 22, 2016, 02:00:26 PM »

Interesting.

Hardly anyone is predicting Trump winning CT, RI and DE.

I wonder why. Trump is a perfect fit for those three states.


How on Earth is Trump a "perfect fit" for Connecticut?

Anyway, those states are just way too partisan to consider voting for a Republican. I mean, sure, in a 40-state landslide those states might flip, but that isn't happening.


Yeah, way too partisan like PA and MI?
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Figueira
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« Reply #24 on: November 22, 2016, 02:05:13 PM »

Interesting.

Hardly anyone is predicting Trump winning CT, RI and DE.

I wonder why. Trump is a perfect fit for those three states.


How on Earth is Trump a "perfect fit" for Connecticut?

Anyway, those states are just way too partisan to consider voting for a Republican. I mean, sure, in a 40-state landslide those states might flip, but that isn't happening.


Yeah, way too partisan like PA and MI?


Pennsylvania and Michigan have historically been a lot closer than Delaware, Rhode Island, and Connecticut.
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