Are Iowa and Ohio now red states?

[ElectionsGuy]

For people who say Virginia is a blue state, I think they should recognize the obvious opposite.

[Lachi]

I do think that Iowa is lost for the Democrats currently, but if they play their cards right, they can take back Ohio.

[LLR]

Iowa: Very slightly red, but still very much in play with different nominees
Ohio: Hella purple
Virginia: Hella purple

[RINO Tom]

Iowa: Very slightly red, but still very much in play with different nominees
Ohio: Hella purple
Virginia: Hella purple

This.

[MT Treasurer]

VA and IA are obviously not swing states anymore, though I must say Clinton was an absolutely terrible fit for Iowa. OH leans Republican, but is probably winnable for Democrats in a wave year.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Uncertain. Trump fit the state well, and Clinton was distrusted and hated much more then usual(which seems to matter more in the midwest). Though Iowa was showing trouble for dems before trump(Obama's approval dropping significantly starting in 2013-14ish)...

[RINO Tom]

Virginia might be the closest to gone, as its "affluent," populated suburbs aren't like other ones around the country - they include lots of Democratic transplants from Maryland and a HUGE number of government employees ... not exactly the suburbanites that Republicans appeal to.

Iowa isn't even close to gone for Democrats.  I live in Iowa, and it's just simply a swingy state.  I think people are really underestimating how much this election was a rebuking of Hillary Clinton, and Iowa got on board.  An unpopular Trump will absolutely lose Iowa to a populist and charismatic Democrat in 2020, and it wouldn't be that close.

Ohio is a swing state.  Period.  The working class areas will probably decide the election, as they are the most prone to swings.  A Trump who fights free trade deals will absolutely win them again (unless things are just really bad) in 2020, a Trump who reverts back to his historical views of supporting free trade (unlikely, but he's already flip-flopped on enough to make it plausible) probably loses them, and Ohio goes blue.

[vileplume]

Iowa is at the very least Leans Republican as it always used to be. It was only the farm crisis of the 80s that turned it into a Democratic state anyway so I think normal order has finally resumed. I would also wager that in Iowa the age gap is much smaller than in the country as a whole with older voters being significantly more Democratic than you would expect (legacy of the farm crisis) with younger voters being significantly more Republican.

[Xing]

Perhaps light red states, though let's not forget that Obama won Iowa by nearly 10% in 2008.

[ElectionsGuy]

Perhaps light red states, though let's not forget that Obama won Iowa by nearly 10% in 2008.

He won by 7 overall. Clinton will win by 1-2 and Iowa went to Trump by 10.

[Orser67]

Eh, I'd like to see one more presidential election before I call them red states. It's possible that Trump was a particularly good fit for the Midwest, and Clinton a particularly bad fit.

[Ljube]

VA and IA are obviously not swing states anymore, though I must say Clinton was an absolutely terrible fit for Iowa. OH leans Republican, but is probably winnable for Democrats in a wave year.

[Cashew]

Clinton was a terrible fit for those states, however assuming the democratic party stays in its current direction those states are gone for good. Maybe Ohio is winnable in a wave election.

[Figueira]

Winning back Iowa would require reversing the white rural problem, while winning back Ohio would require reversing the Rust Belt problem. I think the latter is a more likely path for the Democrats to pursue.

[Xing]

Perhaps light red states, though let's not forget that Obama won Iowa by nearly 10% in 2008.

He won by 7 overall. Clinton will win by 1-2 and Iowa went to Trump by 10.

Yes, but my point was that Iowa is very elastic.

[pppolitics]

Do you mean two states that Obama won as recently as 4 years ago?

Republicans haven't won Virginia in 12 years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is Dems preliminary path to the WH in 2020 but we don't know what 2018 might bring and Ernst and Tillis Senators are vulnerable in 2020

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's not get too carried away on Ohio. It's been a swing state since it became a state. Sure it is a landslide every so often, but it always tends to snap back to a close contest. If Sherrod Brown loses convincingly, then maybe we can talk.

Iowa is definitely Tilt R now. Not going further than that until I see the results for the 2018 gubernatorial race.

Virginia is basically where New Mexico is politically - the right republican can still win it - Gillespie would have won that senate race had anyone been aware that it was competitive - but D's hold a comfortable "fundamentals" advantage.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Iowa is trending red but the dems may have a shot in the midterms. Ohio on the other hand can be won if the democrats move to the left on trade. Imo Sherrod Brown will win in 2018. He has the same views on trade trump does and doesn't have the baggage Hillary had. Dems will lose Ohio and Iowa governor though, unless Ohio dems can get Marcy Kaptur to run.

[Sumner 1868]

The swing in Ohio (11.03%) was only a little more Republican than the 1996-2000 swing (9.87%), though Iowa's swing (15.22%) was much bigger than its 2000 swing (10.03%). Yet consider Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan swung heavily Democratic in 2008 but voted Trump this year.

[Devils30]

Bernie OR Biden would have won Iowa.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The swing in Ohio (11.03%) was only a little more Republican than the 1996-2000 swing (9.87%), though Iowa's swing (15.22%) was much bigger than its 2000 swing (10.03%). Yet consider Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan swung heavily Democratic in 2008 but voted Trump this year.

here's the difference: the 1996-2000 elections swung(according to wikipedia) from +8.5% Dem to +.5% Dem(an 8% GOP swing), while the 2012-2016 elections(according to wikipedia) swung from +4 dem to +2 dem(a 2% GOP swing).  

So in reality according to this data:

Ohio in 2000 swing= 9.87-8= 1.87 point GOP swing
Ohio in 2016 swing= 11.03- 2 = 9.03 point GOP swing

Iowa in 2000 swing = 10.03-8 = 2.3 point GOP swing
Iowa in 2016 swing = 15.22- 2 = 13.2 point GOP swing


So Ohio and Iowa barely swung in 2000 while they swung heavily in 2016. 2000 basically comes down to Bush was a better candiate then Dole, while 2016 looks more like an actual shift.

[AGA]

I would say that both can be considered light red right now. We should not assume that they are solidly Republican states after just one election. We should wait for more election with new nominees. However, I still expect them to trend Republican in the future.

Iowa is in the Minnesota-Louisiana column of states, which are trending Republican with the possible exception of Louisiana.  It seems that each state become politically more like the one south of it over time. Bill Clinton won every state there 20 years ago, and Doanld Trump came close to flipping Minnesota this year.

[White Trash]

No. And Virginia isn't a blue state either.

[Figueira]

Let's not get too carried away on Ohio. It's been a swing state since it became a state. Sure it is a landslide every so often, but it always tends to snap back to a close contest. If Sherrod Brown loses convincingly, then maybe we can talk.

Iowa is definitely Tilt R now. Not going further than that until I see the results for the 2018 gubernatorial race.

Virginia is basically where New Mexico is politically - the right republican can still win it - Gillespie would have won that senate race had anyone been aware that it was competitive - but D's hold a comfortable "fundamentals" advantage.

I wouldn't read too much into midterm results, especially gubernatorial elections. They can tell you something, though.