IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[Ye We Can]

Since Drury is no longer in the race, I have decided to support Rauner's re-election.

Still do?

Rauner Signs Bill Allowing State Health Insurance, Medicaid To Cover Abortions

I support this, but man is Rauner taking a gamble with GOP support here. Good for him.

He's betting that Madigan will get the GOP Base out and this will help him with moderates.  I think it'll work tbh, but I'm obviously biased.

This will work for suburbanites who care more about their pocketbook than about culture war issues. Question is, will better numbers among those voters offset any decline among those in Rauner's base who care about the culture war issues. In other words, will this gain him more "I'm socially liberal, but keep my taxes low" DuPage, Lake and Kane voters than he sheds from the single-issue abortion voters he may lose?

The single issue Republican voters hate IL Dems more than they'll vote against Rauner at this point. Those muh fiscal conservative but social liberal votes are what pushed him over the line; he needs to shore them up more so.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Since Drury is no longer in the race, I have decided to support Rauner's re-election.

Still do?

Rauner Signs Bill Allowing State Health Insurance, Medicaid To Cover Abortions

I support this, but man is Rauner taking a gamble with GOP support here. Good for him.

He's betting that Madigan will get the GOP Base out and this will help him with moderates.  I think it'll work tbh, but I'm obviously biased.

This will work for suburbanites who care more about their pocketbook than about culture war issues. Question is, will better numbers among those voters offset any decline among those in Rauner's base who care about the culture war issues. In other words, will this gain him more "I'm socially liberal, but keep my taxes low" DuPage, Lake and Kane voters than he sheds from the single-issue abortion voters he may lose?

The single issue Republican voters hate IL Dems more than they'll vote against Rauner at this point. Those muh fiscal conservative but social liberal votes are what pushed him over the line; he needs to shore them up more so.

Definitely. But what I'm asking is will Rauner's flip-flop (or whatever you want to call this decision) result in those single issue voters abstaining from voting altogether? And of those who do, will the fiscal conservative / social lib demo increase offset the turnout decline? This'll be a fun one to watch.

I just wish I didn't have to see all of the awful commercials.

[_]

Since Drury is no longer in the race, I have decided to support Rauner's re-election.

Still do?

Rauner Signs Bill Allowing State Health Insurance, Medicaid To Cover Abortions

I support this, but man is Rauner taking a gamble with GOP support here. Good for him.

He's betting that Madigan will get the GOP Base out and this will help him with moderates.  I think it'll work tbh, but I'm obviously biased.

This will work for suburbanites who care more about their pocketbook than about culture war issues. Question is, will better numbers among those voters offset any decline among those in Rauner's base who care about the culture war issues. In other words, will this gain him more "I'm socially liberal, but keep my taxes low" DuPage, Lake and Kane voters than he sheds from the single-issue abortion voters he may lose?

The single issue Republican voters hate IL Dems more than they'll vote against Rauner at this point. Those muh fiscal conservative but social liberal votes are what pushed him over the line; he needs to shore them up more so.

Definitely. But what I'm asking is will Rauner's flip-flop (or whatever you want to call this decision) result in those single issue voters abstaining from voting altogether? And of those who do, will the fiscal conservative / social lib demo increase offset the turnout decline? This'll be a fun one to watch.

I just wish I didn't have to see all of the awful commercials.

Great Campaigns are always accompanied by sh**t ads.

[Nyvin]

Some Republicans in southern Illinois might not like the pro-abortion stance actually.   He's taking a gamble.

[muon2]

I'd watch for both a primary challenge and a separate conservative independent candidate at this point. The GOP base is furious and some key leaders and policy influencers even beyond the right-to-life groups have turned their back. For example, the south suburban Cook GOP cancelled the Gov from their picnic today. The libertarian Illinois Policy Institute has been Rauner's biggest backer from the start of his campaign through the budget fights, but their CEO posted this on Facebook:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Green Line]

Rauner lied to Cardinal Cupich.  The people of Illinois are done with him.

[TJ in Oregon]

If only there was a way to boot Rauner from office and still be able to prevent a Democratic gerrymander in 2022. Granted if I lived south of the border I would have voted for Pat Quinn to begin with.

[Ye We Can]

Was just polled today.  They asked about Rauner and Pritzker/Kennedy, and they also asked about a bunch of other R's:

Jeanne Ives
Kyle McCarter
Dan Proft
...Bill Brady?

[Green Line]

Was just polled today.  They asked about Rauner and Pritzker/Kennedy, and they also asked about a bunch of other R's:

Jeanne Ives
Kyle McCarter
Dan Proft
...Bill Brady?

Proft and Brady would be bad.  I like Ives but not gonna happen. 

Brian Urlacher!

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Was just polled today.  They asked about Rauner and Pritzker/Kennedy, and they also asked about a bunch of other R's:

Jeanne Ives
Kyle McCarter
Dan Proft
...Bill Brady?

Ives is seriously considering primarying Rauner?

[Virginiá]

Off-topic, but it would be very kind of Ives to open up her seat for 2018. HD-42 swung from 53 - 45% Romney to 51 - 41% Clinton. It would probably be pretty hard to pick that seat up with her as an incumbent, but an open seat would be doable. On that note, there seems to be a lot of opportunities for IL Democrats to reclaim a supermajority. The state GOP would do well to convince her to stick to more practical goals for this cycle.

[Green Line]

Off-topic, but it would be very kind of Ives to open up her seat for 2018. HD-42 swung from 53 - 45% Romney to 51 - 41% Clinton. It would probably be pretty hard to pick that seat up with her as an incumbent, but an open seat would be doable. On that note, there seems to be a lot of opportunities for IL Democrats to reclaim a supermajority. The state GOP would do well to convince her to stick to more practical goals for this cycle.

It would be just shy of Safe R.  This is Wheaton.

[Virginiá]

It would be just shy of Safe R.  This is Wheaton.

Maybe. That district wasn't even that safe by 2012 presidential results, and now it's almost a C+10 district. If she runs for that seat again it would be a different story, but there is a substantial difference between challenging an incumbent and running for an open seat, particularly in bad midterms for the White House party. Presidential results are also good, but not perfect predictors for how those races turn out. Again, much more accurate if its open.

This is part of what makes 2018 so exciting. Lots of interesting swings happened in 2016, and now we can see if they will hold, starting this November for Virginia/New Jersey. In Illinois, Clinton won 76 House districts and 42 Senate districts, and if you count districts Obama-Trump districts, it is 83 state House seats. That's a whole lot of opportunities for IL Democrats to take back a super-majority and continue screwing up the state without respite

[_]

It would be just shy of Safe R.  This is Wheaton.

Maybe. That district wasn't even that safe by 2012 presidential results, and now it's almost a C+10 district. If she runs for that seat again it would be a different story, but there is a substantial difference between challenging an incumbent and running for an open seat, particularly in bad midterms for the White House party. Presidential results are also good, but not perfect predictors for how those races turn out. Again, much more accurate if its open.

This is part of what makes 2018 so exciting. Lots of interesting swings happened in 2016, and now we can see if they will hold, starting this November for Virginia/New Jersey. In Illinois, Clinton won 76 House districts and 42 Senate districts, and if you count districts Obama-Trump districts, it is 83 state House seats. That's a whole lot of opportunities for IL Democrats to take back a super-majority and continue screwing up the state without respite

No

[ill ind]

  Il-42 isn't going to go Democratic.  No incumbent could make it an interesting race, but that's about it.  Trump was an awful fit for the district ( wealthier and higher educated than average and not a bastion of white working class voters) which explains those results more so that a shift to the Dems.  Same with the DCCC targeting Il-6 in congress.  Same bad fit for Trump and not necessarily a shift to the D's.  As a resident of Il-42 it certainly would be interesting to see what kind of race an open seat would produce.  My gut is that Ives stays put however.

[Green Line]

Toni Taxwinkle's pop tax is about to be repealed.  She destroyed her political career trying to squeeze a few more bucks out of the poor residents of Cook County.  Could't have happened to a more deserving person.  SAD!

[Aliens]

Here's how the Cook County Board currently stands on the pop tax - a few of the commissioners who originally voted for the tax now support repeal. They're planning to vote on Tuesday.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Cheri Bustos is backing Pritzker.

[kyc0705]

Toni Taxwinkle

I thought this was a new nickname for Tomi Lahren.

[Green Line]

The regressive POP tax was repealed today by a veto proof majority.  With it, the clouds finally broke over Chicagoland, the sun shined, and we drank our sugary drinks in harmony.  The people of Cook County finally woke up, for the first time, and the politicians listened.

Next, we vote Taxwinkle out of office.

[muon2]

The regressive POP tax was repealed today by a veto proof majority.  With it, the clouds finally broke over Chicagoland, the sun shined, and we drank our sugary drinks in harmony.  The people of Cook County finally woke up, for the first time, and the politicians listened.

Next, we vote Taxwinkle out of office.

Then again she was voted in largely because of the unpopular tax policy of her predecessor, Todd Stroger. Cook is a very large, expensive county to operate and offers more programs than other counties in the state. The problem is finding someone who can fundamentally change the way the county operates, since the voters in Cook have rejected leaders who would make deep cuts in those programs. Without that kind of change, the next county board president will be looking for another tax to cover the deficits.

[Donerail]

Pawar is out. Dems will now choose between three white guys from the north shore to take on the white guy from winnetka

[Blair]

Pawar is out. Dems will now choose between three white guys from the north shore to take on the white guy from winnetka

How come he didn't take off in this race? I'd heard him being talked about by a lot of people on the progressive left for a while.

It's certainly a pretty hilarious choice; and funny to think that out three remaining candidates Pritzker is the only one who hasn't shot himself in the foot (yet)

[MAINEiac4434]

Pawar is out. Dems will now choose between three white guys from the north shore to take on the white guy from winnetka

Will he endorse anyone (Biss)?

[KingSweden]

I bet Pawar runs for Mayor in '19. Improvement over Rahm, at least, and probably more palatable to those not on the hard left than Garcia