IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[Gass3268]

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/347778-illinois-governor-shakes-up-staff-after-controversial-white-male

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How many times is Rauner going to shake up his staff before Nov 2018?

What a failure of a Governor.

[Nyvin]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

[_]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

While I strongly support Biss in the primary (who fits that description pretty well), I don't think we need an A-lister to beat Rauner tbh.  It'd be nice and I worry about the Dems taking it for granted with Pritzker, but I still think he'd beat Rauner in the end barring some sort of new scandal (always possible).

[_]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

While I strongly support Biss in the primary (who fits that description pretty well), I don't think we need an A-lister to beat Rauner tbh.  It'd be nice and I worry about the Dems taking it for granted with Pritzker, but I still think he'd beat Rauner in the end barring some sort of new scandal (always possible).

You don't need an A-Lister, just someone besides Pritzker or Kennedy.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

While I strongly support Biss in the primary (who fits that description pretty well), I don't think we need an A-lister to beat Rauner tbh.  It'd be nice and I worry about the Dems taking it for granted with Pritzker, but I still think he'd beat Rauner in the end barring some sort of new scandal (always possible).

You don't need an A-Lister, just someone besides Pritzker or Kennedy.

Pritzker can get the job done just fine.  I agree that Kennedy would lose though.

[_]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

While I strongly support Biss in the primary (who fits that description pretty well), I don't think we need an A-lister to beat Rauner tbh.  It'd be nice and I worry about the Dems taking it for granted with Pritzker, but I still think he'd beat Rauner in the end barring some sort of new scandal (always possible).

You don't need an A-Lister, just someone besides Pritzker or Kennedy.

Pritzker can get the job done just fine.  I agree that Kennedy would lose though.

You're saying someone like Jeb would do better than someone like Clinton, I highly doubt that, but alright.

[Gass3268]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

Really don't think it will mater with Trump as President. It's like Scott in FL or LePage in ME.

[_]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

Really don't think it will mater with Trump as President. It's like Scott in FL or LePage in ME.

Rick Scott has 52-37 approval according to MC, I agree on ME, and obviously I disagree on how you view IL, Trump alone can't flip IL when you run the most elitist, Chicagoesque, Corrupt person you can possibly find, and you have Michael Madigan on top of that.

[RINO Tom]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

Really don't think it will mater with Trump as President. It's like Scott in FL or LePage in ME.

It obviously remains to be seen, but I think it's highly likely Illinoisans decide their governor vote based on their frustration with state politics rather than national ones.  The question will be whether the GOP can effectively paint a (clearly accurate, IMO) picture of Rauner being the person we elected for change and the same ole legislature standing in his way in favor of business as usual (the same business as usual that has Illinois in turmoil).  If the GOP can effectively due that, Rauner will win re-election and they'll make gains in the state legislature, regardless of Trump.  I'm depressingly pessemistic that this can be done, but if Rauner loses it won't be just because of Trump.  It will be because Democrats were successful enough at painting RAUNER as the problem (which, LOL...).

[PragmaticPopulist]

Does anyone think Illinois Democrats will finally get some sense and elect someone else to be house speaker in 2019? Madigan is old, despised, and scandal-ridden. Someone else in the legislature is bound to challenge him.

[Gass3268]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

Really don't think it will mater with Trump as President. It's like Scott in FL or LePage in ME.

Rick Scott has 52-37 approval according to MC, I agree on ME, and obviously I disagree on how you view IL, Trump alone can't flip IL when you run the most elitist, Chicagoesque, Corrupt person you can possibly find, and you have Michael Madigan on top of that.

I meant the national environment and Obama's low approvals are the main reasons why Scott and LePage won in 2010 and 2014. Also Rauner is immensely unpopular and wasn't there a poll where most Illini blamed him for the budget issues? 

[_]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

Really don't think it will mater with Trump as President. It's like Scott in FL or LePage in ME.

Rick Scott has 52-37 approval according to MC, I agree on ME, and obviously I disagree on how you view IL, Trump alone can't flip IL when you run the most elitist, Chicagoesque, Corrupt person you can possibly find, and you have Michael Madigan on top of that.

I meant the national environment and Obama's low approvals are the main reasons why Scott and LePage won in 2010 and 2014. Also Rauner is immensely unpopular and wasn't there a poll where most Illini blamed him for the budget issues? 

I don't recall that poll, and I remember MC having him at 40-49 last time they polled, so not immensely unpopular.   https://morningconsult.com/governor-approval-ratings-july-2017/

Edit:  26% Approval is immensely unpopular imo.

[Virginiá]

Rick Scott has 52-37 approval according to MC, I agree on ME, and obviously I disagree on how you view IL, Trump alone can't flip IL when you run the most elitist, Chicagoesque, Corrupt person you can possibly find, and you have Michael Madigan on top of that.

Probably not alone, but anger at local issues will play a role. Rauner isn't viewed as innocent in regards to them, despite whether it's right or not. That's the annoying part about how our elections play out. People take out their anger on the person at the top (and their party), even when it wasn't their fault. Don't underestimate the effect the national environment can have.

As for JB, do the voters themselves perceive him as an elitist, Chicagoesque corrupt person? And more importantly, how elitist and corrupt do they perceive him when compared to Rauner? Let's not forget what state this is. If the voters perceive both to be bad candidates, it's easier for a Democrat in a deeply Democratic state to win that kind of election.

[Nyvin]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

Really don't think it will mater with Trump as President. It's like Scott in FL or LePage in ME.

Rick Scott has 52-37 approval according to MC, I agree on ME, and obviously I disagree on how you view IL, Trump alone can't flip IL when you run the most elitist, Chicagoesque, Corrupt person you can possibly find, and you have Michael Madigan on top of that.

I meant the national environment and Obama's low approvals are the main reasons why Scott and LePage won in 2010 and 2014. Also Rauner is immensely unpopular and wasn't there a poll where most Illini blamed him for the budget issues? 

I don't recall that poll, and I remember MC having him at 40-49 last time they polled, so not immensely unpopular.   https://morningconsult.com/governor-approval-ratings-july-2017/

Edit:  26% Approval is immensely unpopular imo.

You don't need 26% approval to flip a gov seat....

[_]

Rauner is probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in 2018.

And you truly have an amazing, uncorrupt, and competent opponent to run against him.

Really don't think it will mater with Trump as President. It's like Scott in FL or LePage in ME.

Rick Scott has 52-37 approval according to MC, I agree on ME, and obviously I disagree on how you view IL, Trump alone can't flip IL when you run the most elitist, Chicagoesque, Corrupt person you can possibly find, and you have Michael Madigan on top of that.

I meant the national environment and Obama's low approvals are the main reasons why Scott and LePage won in 2010 and 2014. Also Rauner is immensely unpopular and wasn't there a poll where most Illini blamed him for the budget issues? 

I don't recall that poll, and I remember MC having him at 40-49 last time they polled, so not immensely unpopular.   https://morningconsult.com/governor-approval-ratings-july-2017/

Edit:  26% Approval is immensely unpopular imo.

You don't need 26% approval to flip a gov seat....

Was referencing Madigan.

[Ebsy]

Unfortunately for Bruce Rauner, Madigan's name will not be on the ballot.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Does anyone think Illinois Democrats will finally get some sense and elect someone else to be house speaker in 2019? Madigan is old, despised, and scandal-ridden. Someone else in the legislature is bound to challenge him.

When Madigan dies they'll elected someone new. He's too powerful within his own party to be overthrown.

[UncleSam]

I mean giving Rauner a socialist bogeyman to run against is kind of the only way he could win this race lol

Doesn't matter though Biss won't win the primary

[BundouYMB]

It's downright bizarre how Biss is pretending to be a Bernie-ite or something given he's a braindead Madigan stooge who voted to gut the pension system. Very surreal.

[Donerail]

It's downright bizarre how Biss is pretending to be a Bernie-ite or something given he's a braindead Madigan stooge who voted to gut the pension system. Very surreal.

Who he's running against helps immensely in that regard

[MAINEiac4434]

Probably posted and just missed it, but in case it hasn't: Pawar has picked Cairo mayor Tyrone Coleman as his running mate.

[Donerail]

biased but I think Biss clearly won this round. he's competing with Pawar for the "Bernie lane" - Rosa burnishes Biss's progressive credentials, while Coleman has the opposite effect for Pawar

[Aliens]

Pritzker chose state rep Juliana Stratton as his running mate and Kennedy hasn't made his LG pick yet.

[MAINEiac4434]

What are the Illinoisans' takes on Stratton?