OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Rjjr77]

Auditor Dave Yost made his AG race official today. Rumors are Rep. Renacci will declare for governor within a month

Yost is probably the least known of the row officers, and the worst campaigner. Pillich got a little lucky with Mandel, given how hated he was, but John Patrick Carney put up a good fight in '14. Even if we lose the Governor's race, I'm hopeful we can take back the AG-post.

Yost was the least known, but no one the democrats have ID'd as a possibility is better known or even as known, throw in Yost's big cash on hand number he declared with, it will be an uphill battle. Democrats have better shot at Auditor and Treasurer where name ID and money will be a much level playing field.

If I were to rank the Ohio races(as of today) in order of likelihood of switching parties (from most to least likely) I'd go:
Auditor
Treasurer
Secretary of State
Attorney General
US Senate
Governor

Yost is better known now, but he's still not well known, by any means. Money's the bigger problem, but Dettelbach should be able to play the fundraising network well--he and Obama played basketball together at Harvard. Also, Auditor will be a much harder race to win, even with its low name ID/monetary expectations given Faber is likely running. But maybe he'll challenge Yost. Still too early to say.

Meanwhile, The Plain Dealer has taken an interesting look at the ramifications of Taylor's betrayal, and this year's Cleveland mayoral election could get ugly with the SEUI making its first ever endorsement in the race. Also, while with Gabbard in the Middle East, Kucinich met with Assad.

Dettelbach may not even be the candidate (I think it will be schiavoni who is the better one)

All the rumors I'm hearing is that Faber is not running for auditor as money players are trying to clear the GOP field for Mingo, and Faber may be angling for the speaker slot. Faber is also much lesser known than even Yost and won't have the money. With the thin bench on the D side I think AG and Governor are uphill battles, but treasurer and auditor are wide open. SOS is a different animal, if Alicia Reese or Kathleen Clyde face off against LaRose both will probably lose, against Pelanda they both could win.

Most everything is speculative at this point, but being the first one in will be a boon. It's hard to read Ryan, but at this point, I doubt he'll actually jump in. His action in challenging Pelosi shows some fire has been lit under him, but he's always on the fence about running for higher office. At this juncture, early as it is, I find it likely he's gunning for high House leadership in the future, and Schiavoni will actually wind up running for Governor.

Mingo could make a run for Auditor, I suppose, but he's only one of the two county-wide Republicans down in Franklin County, and the OHGOP might be reluctant to give that up. That said, Speaker Rosenberger will be term-limited out of the State House in '19 (at the tender age of 38, no less), so Faber certainly has the option.

If Schiavoni is the gubernatorial candidate that's a lost opportunity for the dems. He's got a real shot as a statewide, but running against any of the republicans will make life very difficult for him, and that'd be possibly crippling a rising star.

I think Mingo is wanting to move up, I don't think the OHGOP cares that much about any Franklin county race that isn't prosecutor.

[Hindsight was 2020]

After seeing him on real time I think Tim Ryan should of replaced Nancy. He would make a great dem nom

[Rjjr77]

After seeing him on real time I think Tim Ryan should of replaced Nancy. He would make a great dem nom

He's rumored for higher office every year, and never runs

[BuckeyeNut]

Schiavoni, in an interview with the Youngstown Vindcator clarified the only statewide position he wants is Governor, although he also said he would run for Ryan's seat if he ran.

Further indication, I think, that Schiavoni announced so early. It puts pressure on Ryan to get off the pot.

[Rjjr77]

Schiavoni, in an interview with the Youngstown Vindcator clarified the only statewide position he wants is Governor, although he also said he would run for Ryan's seat if he ran.

Further indication, I think, that Schiavoni announced so early. It puts pressure on Ryan to get off the pot.

That's an interesting strategy, he'll probably have a tough fight for governor. He'd walk through that house seat with how d it is.

[BuckeyeNut]

A new poll shows AG Mike DeWine leading in a 4-way primary against Lt. Gov Taylor, SOS Husted, and Rep. Renacci.

DeWine 47%; Husted 18%; Taylor 10%; Renacci 4%. 22% undecided. In a two-way, DeWine leads Husted 55%-45%.

As for name recognition, DeWine has 95% name recognition, while 33% of respondents didn't know Husted, 57% didn't know Taylor, and 71% didn't know Renacci. They also tested some non-Gubernatorial contenders. 81% of respondents didn't know former Senate President Faber, 86% didn't know Speaker Rosenberger, and 54% don't know Yost, either.

[Rjjr77]

A new poll shows AG Mike DeWine leading in a 4-way primary against Lt. Gov Taylor, SOS Husted, and Rep. Renacci.

DeWine 47%; Husted 18%; Taylor 10%; Renacci 4%. 22% undecided. In a two-way, DeWine leads Husted 55%-45%.

As for name recognition, DeWine has 95% name recognition, why 33% of respondents didn't know Husted, 57% didn't know Taylor, and 71% didn't know Renacci. They also tested some non-Gubernatorial contenders. 81% of respondents didn't know former Senate President Faber is, 86% didn't know Speaker Rosenberger, and 54% don't know Yost, either.

Big boost for Husted, the favorables will drop for Dewine as the campaign starts, to see Husted with 66% name id is big. Taylor's name id is disappointing

[Rjjr77]

Faber announces he is running for Auditor

[BuckeyeNut]

As it said in the Dispatch, his intention to run was, "the worst-kept secret in Ohio politics."

It would be really dumb for Mingo to primary him.

[Rjjr77]

As it said in the Dispatch, his intention to run was, "the worst-kept secret in Ohio politics."

It would be really dumb for Mingo to primary him.

There was a lot of talk about him not running for auditor and angling for speaker, he's not particularly well liked. As for Mingo primarying him... Is it dumb? Will Faber be able to raise any money without the senate presidency?

[Littlefinger]

How would Cordray do in a Guberntorial Race? Trump and his minions will most likely try to get rid of or severely weaken the CFPB. Would Ryan be stronger than him or would they be roughly equal?

[justfollowingtheelections]

After seeing him on real time I think Tim Ryan should of replaced Nancy. He would make a great dem nom

Yeah he's definitely to the left of Nancy.  Democrats screwed up once again.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

As it said in the Dispatch, his intention to run was, "the worst-kept secret in Ohio politics."

It would be really dumb for Mingo to primary him.

So you're saying Mingo will go for it?

[Kingpoleon]

After seeing him on real time I think Tim Ryan should of replaced Nancy. He would make a great dem nom

Yeah he's definitely to the left of Nancy.  Democrats screwed up once again.

He's to the right of Nancy Pelosi on most issues. He is undoubtedly more competent and likeable than her, though.

[BuckeyeNut]

As it said in the Dispatch, his intention to run was, "the worst-kept secret in Ohio politics."

It would be really dumb for Mingo to primary him.

There was a lot of talk about him not running for auditor and angling for speaker, he's not particularly well liked. As for Mingo primarying him... Is it dumb? Will Faber be able to raise any money without the senate presidency?

Faber certainly has more statewide contacts from his time as Senate President, so, probably.

Speaking of money, both DeWine and Husted have $2.5 million in the bank, as of the latest filing. Interestingly, Husted had a mere $900 more than DeWine, even though DeWine voluntarily reported half a million dollars raised in January. Taylor, meanwhile, has a little under $1 million in the bank.

Democratic fundraising for potential gubernatorial candidates is comparatively pitiful. Schiavoni has ~$40,000 in the bank, while Connie Pillich is sitting on $425,000; only half of which was raised this year.

As for the down-ballot candidates, Yost has $1 million in the bank, while Dettelbach has $250,000; all of which it seems he raised since November. Faber has $600,000 in the bank.

[Chief Justice Keef]

After seeing him on real time I think Tim Ryan should of replaced Nancy. He would make a great dem nom

Yeah he's definitely to the left of Nancy.  Democrats screwed up once again.

He's to the right of Nancy Pelosi on most issues. He is undoubtedly more competent and likeable than her, though.

I think he was in favor of that single-payer healthcare bill Conyers introduces every session of Congress.

[Rjjr77]

How would Cordray do in a Guberntorial Race? Trump and his minions will most likely try to get rid of or severely weaken the CFPB. Would Ryan be stronger than him or would they be roughly equal?

I think Ryan is stronger, he doesn't have statewide losses on his record. Cordray is very good on guns for a D and that will help him in a general. Cordray has also been out of the eye for a while and many have probably forgotten him. Plus there's some stories going around that he's deleted emails at CFPB

[Rjjr77]

As it said in the Dispatch, his intention to run was, "the worst-kept secret in Ohio politics."

It would be really dumb for Mingo to primary him.

There was a lot of talk about him not running for auditor and angling for speaker, he's not particularly well liked. As for Mingo primarying him... Is it dumb? Will Faber be able to raise any money without the senate presidency?

Faber certainly has more statewide contacts from his time as Senate President, so, probably.

Speaking of money, both DeWine and Husted have $2.5 million in the bank, as of the latest filing. Interestingly, Husted had a mere $900 more than DeWine, even though DeWine voluntarily reported half a million dollars raised in January. Taylor, meanwhile, has a little under $1 million in the bank.

Democratic fundraising for potential gubernatorial candidates is comparatively pitiful. Schiavoni has ~$40,000 in the bank, while Connie Pillich is sitting on $425,000; only half of which was raised this year.

As for the down-ballot candidates, Yost has $1 million in the bank, while Dettelbach has $250,000; all of which it seems he raised since November. Faber has $600,000 in the bank.

Husted beating Dewine by 500,000 dollars last quarter is definitely news. Dewine reported January numbers because to make himself closer

[Sumner 1868]

Why are there so many low-energy Republicans in this state?

[BuckeyeNut]

Because they've traditionally fit the Kasich model?

ION: While she has to seek re-election this year, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley has expressed serious interest in running for Governor.

[KingSweden]

Because they've traditionally fit the Kasich model?

ION: While she has to seek re-election this year, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley has expressed serious interest in running for Governor.

Why not just run against Mike What'shisname in Congress?

[BuckeyeNut]

Montgomery County actually went for Trump in 2016, the first time the county has gone Republican since Reagan. While the district is theoretically one of the most competitive by PVI (though that needs re-calculating), Mike Turner is an incredibly popular incumbent. Unless he does something drastic, it's not a particularly good pick-up opportunity until his retirement.

Additionally, while Whaley has been talked up as potential Congressional candidate in the past, she seems more interested in serving as an executive.

[PMHub]

Yeah the only way to pick up that seat is if Turner decides to run for a higher office

[Rjjr77]

Because they've traditionally fit the Kasich model?

ION: While she has to seek re-election this year, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley has expressed serious interest in running for Governor.

Interesting, don't think she's a great candidate for governor though

[KingSweden]

Montgomery County actually went for Trump in 2016, the first time the county has gone Republican since Reagan. While the district is theoretically one of the most competitive by PVI (though that needs re-calculating), Mike Turner is an incredibly popular incumbent. Unless he does something drastic, it's not a particularly good pick-up opportunity until his retirement.

Additionally, while Whaley has been talked up as potential Congressional candidate in the past, she seems more interested in serving as an executive.

Got it. Thanks!