OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[BuckeyeNut]

Updated prediction map for post-primary. Currently, only one D-held seat isn't completely safe, and it's the one in Ashtabula County.



In my estimation, candidate recruitment was goofed in the 55th (Lean R seat in Lorain County); 92nd (Likely R seat just south of Franklin County); all three of the R held seats in Cuyahoga County (6th, 7th, and 16th); as well as the 5th (Columbiana County); and the 23rd (the one Likely R seat in Franklin County).

Largely agreed. What's wrong with Phil Robinson though? I don't understand the Columbus area so I don't know what they like.

Side note, I like your new signature and generally feel the same way.

Absolutely pitiful fundraising. He didn't even raise $2,000 in Q1 of 2018. He's also tried and failed before -- he couldn't even break 40% in OH-06 in 2016. Harris in the 23rd also raised under $2,000, but his Republican opponent also raised pretty bad money and Harris almost got as many raw votes in the primary as his opponent. Less than 700 votes difference.

And thanks!

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

(I'm Aware I'm a week late to the party)

It may be an internal but Jesus H Christ: https://www.scribd.com/document/378736368/OH-Gov-PPP-for-Ohio-Democratic-Party-April-2018-May-2018

Please, PLEASE Let this be real.  DeWine is freaking doomed if this is anywhere near correct, especially on Trump Voters.  If Cordray is flipping the Trump Voters in NE OH and Appalachia, as well as holding Hillary Rs in the Cincinatti and Columbus Suburbs, it'll be a rout.

Yikes at that swing in Trump approval though. 44-52 below to 48-47 above water :/

[BuckeyeNut]

I don’t buy for a second Trump was ever 44-52 in Ohio. Trump being +1 is pretty decent, and I’m honestly  surprised he isnt higher.

[libertpaulian]

I don’t buy for a second Trump was ever 44-52 in Ohio. Trump being +1 is pretty decent, and I’m honestly  surprised he isnt higher.

Trump is popular in Ohio?!

[BuckeyeNut]

I don’t buy for a second Trump was ever 44-52 in Ohio. Trump being +1 is pretty decent, and I’m honestly  surprised he isnt higher.

Trump is popular in Ohio?!

Not popular in any of the big cities, obviously, but he's probably only a little less popular than he is in Indiana.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ryan Smith, former Speaker Rosenberger's heir apparent, leads the votes to become the next Speaker of the House, but can't break the necessary 50 votes due to Republican infighting. A special, and seemingly unconstitutional, meeting of the General Assembly has been called for tomorrow to elect a new Speaker, but both anti-Smith Republicans and Democrats are likely to protest.

[Politician]

(I'm Aware I'm a week late to the party)

It may be an internal but Jesus H Christ: https://www.scribd.com/document/378736368/OH-Gov-PPP-for-Ohio-Democratic-Party-April-2018-May-2018

Please, PLEASE Let this be real.  DeWine is freaking doomed if this is anywhere near correct, especially on Trump Voters.  If Cordray is flipping the Trump Voters in NE OH and Appalachia, as well as holding Hillary Rs in the Cincinatti and Columbus Suburbs, it'll be a rout.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Ryan Smith, former Speaker Rosenberger's heir apparent, leads the votes to become the next Speaker of the House, but can't break the necessary 50 votes due to Republican infighting. A special, and seemingly unconstitutional, meeting of the General Assembly has been called for tomorrow to elect a new Speaker, but both anti-Smith Republicans and Democrats are likely to protest.

Have there been any rumors of Democrats crossing the aisle to play kingmaker with one of the more reasonable republicans? Or is there A) no such option B ) no such interest on one side or another or C) both?

Thinking of New Hampshire as an example of this occurring in the past.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ryan Smith, former Speaker Rosenberger's heir apparent, leads the votes to become the next Speaker of the House, but can't break the necessary 50 votes due to Republican infighting. A special, and seemingly unconstitutional, meeting of the General Assembly has been called for tomorrow to elect a new Speaker, but both anti-Smith Republicans and Democrats are likely to protest.

Have there been any rumors of Democrats crossing the aisle to play kingmaker with one of the more reasonable republicans? Or is there A) no such option B ) no such interest on one side or another or C) both?

Thinking of New Hampshire as an example of this occurring in the past.

Bill Patmon, who frequently votes with Republicans, claims he's been approached by Team Smith, and says he might vote for him, but the rest of the caucus is refusing to throw their support to any of the Republican candidates for Speaker.

[Ohioguy29]

So the FBI raided Cliff Rosenberger's house (and storage unit.)

[BuckeyeNut]

So the FBI raided Cliff Rosenberger's house (and storage unit.)

And what should be a busy pre-summer recess session has been completely dead... though the GOP still found time to pass an atrocious Stand Your Ground bill out of Committee.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So the FBI raided Cliff Rosenberger's house (and storage unit.)

It's the Deep State!

[junior chįmp]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[KingSweden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Suggests a generic D lead of about +3 then

[BuckeyeNut]

Not bad. Not bad at all. Would love to see how Dettelbach, Richardson, and Space are doing.

[Ohioguy29]

Daniel Gordon has withdrawn from the HD-3 race due to health reasons.

[BuckeyeNut]

Daniel Gordon has withdrawn from the HD-3 race due to health reasons.

Health? Isn’t he like 25?

Maybe that’s why he wasn’t really doing very well. Despite his theoretically strong candidacy, he was not breaking ground. (Though that’s also the danger of running a ward councilman—even if BG dominates Wood County and OH-03, a ward councilman has limited appeal.)

I hope OHDC recruits a viable candidate here. It’s a shame Joel Kuhlman is running for judge, but he’d be good here. He had been the lone Democrat on the Wood County Commision and still got 47% of the vote as other county wide Democrats were getting crushed.

[Ohioguy29]

Daniel Gordon has withdrawn from the HD-3 race due to health reasons.

Health? Isn’t he like 25?

Maybe that’s why he wasn’t really doing very well. Despite his theoretically strong candidacy, he was not breaking ground. (Though that’s also the danger of running a ward councilman—even if BG dominates Wood County and OH-03, a ward councilman has limited appeal.)

I hope OHDC recruits a viable candidate here. It’s a shame Joel Kuhlman is running for judge, but he’d be good here. He had been the lone Democrat on the Wood County Commision and still got 47% of the vote as other county wide Democrats were getting crushed.

Yeah, I had wondered why his fundraising was so terrible. I don't know details of his illness, but this is the facebook post he made. I was so excited we had a non-Kelly Wicks candidate too...

[BuckeyeNut]

You dont really need to raise a lot as a Ward Councilman who represents a bunch of college kids... The Mainstreet Program has been good at getting people elected locally, but a lot of the farm team that’s coming together would be better served making the jump to at-large council seats/mayorships before rhnning for State Representative—so long as they then also recruit fresh faces to take their spot. And it reallly isn’t just Gordon, for another example, see Jeremy Blake down in Newark.

[BuckeyeNut]

In a deal struck by Speaker Pro Temp. Kirk Schuring, GOP Chairwoman Jane Timken, and Once & Future Speaker Larry Householder, the House will be voting on a rule change this Wednesday to ensure Schuring can remain acting Speaker through the end of session. Rep. Ryan Smith, who has been jockeying for the job as former Speaker Cliff Rosenberger's heir apparent, is not on board with this plan, and it remains to be seen if his supporters will come around to it, which would be necessary for a rule change to be enacted. ~47 of the 66 Republicans in the House support Smith, but it takes a clean 50 vote majority to be elected Speaker.

[Ohioguy29]

That's a very reasonable solution, and Ryan Smith is a big baby for not getting on board with it.

[BuckeyeNut]

That's a very reasonable solution, and Ryan Smith is a big baby for not getting on board with it.

It is reasonable, but I wouldn't get on board if I were him. His only shot at becoming Speaker next session is if he goes into the new session as Speaker already. His term-limited supporters in safe seats are largely getting replaced by Householder candidates, and most of the competitive races feature Smith candidates who could go down.

[BuckeyeNut]

New PPP polling shows the race for Treasurer tied with Richardson and Sprague both at 40%. This is the second PPP poll in as many weeks of a downticket statewide race in Ohio. The first had Kathleen Clyde leading Frank LaRose 43% to 40% in the Secretary of State race.

Looking forward to the races for Auditor and Attorney General, which I still think are surer bets. Clyde has definitely proven herself a heavyweight, though. She’s punching very hard against LaRose, who is personally popular with many Northeast Ohio Democrats.

[BuckeyeNut]

Bernadine Kennedy Kent has decided to join with Republicans and vote Smith for Speaker. Still no word from Patmon or Barnes.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Bernadine Kennedy Kent has decided to join with Republicans and vote Smith for Speaker. Still no word from Patmon or Barnes.

Does anyone have an informal whip count on Householder? Saw that Smith claimed he had the votes but uh... didn't back it up.