OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[BuckeyeNut]

Bernadine Kennedy Kent has decided to join with Republicans and vote Smith for Speaker. Still no word from Patmon or Barnes.

Does anyone have an informal whip count on Householder? Saw that Smith claimed he had the votes but uh... didn't back it up.

Last I saw, Smith claimed to have 46 votes—but that was before he lost Schuring. So, if he lost no one else in the deal tbat was made, Smith is sitting where he was and Patmon and Barnes crossing over would only get him to 48. He needs 50 to be elected outright, though with multiple rounds of voting...

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Another 1984 Society poll: https://www.scribd.com/document/380751341/1984-Society-June-Poll?secret_password=xWlrLp93hLS5nASNjqpO#from_embed

Gov:
DeWine - 40
Cordray - 33.5
Sen:
Brown - 47.9
Renacci - 33.6, Yikes!

[Gass3268]

Another 1984 Society poll: https://www.scribd.com/document/380751341/1984-Society-June-Poll?secret_password=xWlrLp93hLS5nASNjqpO#from_embed

Gov:
DeWine - 40
Cordray - 33.5
Sen:
Brown - 47.9
Renacci - 33.6, Yikes!

Also some solid results for Democrats down ballot.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The last poll by that same pollster had DeWine up 21 points...

[BuckeyeNut]

I said it when they first started polling, and I’ll say it again: I think Fallon is junk. There’s no way that 1: Yost has a stronger lead on Dettelbach than DeWine has on Cordray, and 2: 42% of Ohio Democrats think the state is headed in the right direction. That said, the general trend is good and I’ll throw them in my aggregator. Which now has Brown +10% and the Governor’s race tied.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Junk poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The same poll had Brown up by 14 , it isn't junk

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The same poll had Brown up by 14 , it isn't junk

Yes it is

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's probably not the most scientific poll,  we will see if it coincides with other polls. QU doesn't poll to the end,  anyways

[BuckeyeNut]

The same poll had Brown up by 14 , it isn't junk

Yes it is

[BuckeyeNut]

The Speaker sh!tshow will end tonight, for better or worse.

As of posting, House members just finished the 7th round of voting. At the end of the 7th round:

• Former Speaker Rosenberger's heir apparent, R. Smith had 44 votes
• Democratic Minority Leader, F. Thompson had 28 votes
• Once and Future Speaker's willing pawn, A. Thompson had 10 votes
• Surprise, Term-Limited Compromise Candidate, J. Hughes had 9 votes

The votes haven't really changed much if at all since the first round. 8 Republicans are absent and 2 Democrats are voting for Smith. Nominally, it takes 50 votes to become Speaker, since there are only 91 of the 99 members present, it would just take 46 votes to be elected Speaker. On the 11th round of voting, whoever has a plurality of votes will become the next Speaker.

There is, technically, a non-zero chance Strahorn becomes Speaker, though it is still very small.

[BuckeyeNut]

And so the vote comes to an end in the 11th round, where little changed. Final tally:

• Former Speaker Rosenberger's heir apparent, R. Smith had 44 votes
• Democratic Minority Leader, F. Thompson had 27 votes
• Once and Future Speaker's willing pawn, A. Thompson had 13 votes
• Surprise, Term-Limited Compromise Candidate, J. Hughes had 7 votes

[BuckeyeNut]

Well, the sh!t starts coming and it don’t stop coming: Democrat Caucus members have voted to remove Representative Bernadine Kennedy Kent (C-bus) out of the caucus after she forged the signatures of 15 members of the Ohio Legislative Black Caucus on a letter criticizing Minority Leader Fred Strahorn (Dayton) for suppressing “serious reports of threatening behavior.”

This is the first time a caucus member has ever been voted out. Representatives Patmon and Barnes, conservative Democrats of Cleveland, were both asked to leave the caucus a while back under different  leadership, but have a standing invitation to return. Kennedy Kent, meanwhile, might be sued for some type of fraud by members of the OLBC.

For background, Kennedy Kent, like other maverick Democrats and Minroity Leader Strahorn, is Black and represents a minority-majority district. She beat out the Joyce Beatty-backed Dontavius Jarrels in the 2016 primary for the then-open seat, and faced serious opposition in this year’s primary from the first Somali-American graduate of The Ohio State University Law School, despite being endorsed by the Franklin County Democratic Party.

[Dr. Arch]

I don’t buy for a second Trump was ever 44-52 in Ohio. Trump being +1 is pretty decent, and I’m honestly  surprised he isnt higher.

Trump is popular in Ohio?!

Not popular in any of the big cities, obviously, but he's probably only a little less popular than he is in Indiana.

Quick question, since you seem to have a decent feel for the state's political climate. What's up with Ohio and Trump?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t buy for a second Trump was ever 44-52 in Ohio. Trump being +1 is pretty decent, and I’m honestly  surprised he isnt higher.

Trump is popular in Ohio?!

Not popular in any of the big cities, obviously, but he's probably only a little less popular than he is in Indiana.

Quick question, since you seem to have a decent feel for the state's political climate. What's up with Ohio and Trump?

Brown is solidifying his votes, while it will take time for Richard Cordray to win over voters that otherwise might vote for DeWine for Governor. OH 12 will be a bellweather in Aug, 2018, on this race, which Leans GOP.

[BuckeyeNut]

I don’t buy for a second Trump was ever 44-52 in Ohio. Trump being +1 is pretty decent, and I’m honestly  surprised he isnt higher.

Trump is popular in Ohio?!

Not popular in any of the big cities, obviously, but he's probably only a little less popular than he is in Indiana.

Quick question, since you seem to have a decent feel for the state's political climate. What's up with Ohio and Trump?

How do you mean? We're a big state, so it's hard to generalize.

[Dr. Arch]

I don’t buy for a second Trump was ever 44-52 in Ohio. Trump being +1 is pretty decent, and I’m honestly  surprised he isnt higher.

Trump is popular in Ohio?!

Not popular in any of the big cities, obviously, but he's probably only a little less popular than he is in Indiana.

Quick question, since you seem to have a decent feel for the state's political climate. What's up with Ohio and Trump?

How do you mean? We're a big state, so it's hard to generalize.

The big swings in 2016 and his relatively acceptable approval in the state even amidst all of this madness are particularly interesting in a state that's been considered purple for the longest time.

[Ohioguy29]

Two new polls. An Enquirer/Suffolk poll shows Cordray leading DeWine 43 to 36 with likely voters (the 16% of undecideds in that poll are heavily Republican though.) Quinnipiac poll shows Cordray leading 42-40 (within the MOE.) Crystal Ball has changed their rating of the race from Lean R to Tossup.

Q poll also shows that 57% of Ohio Democrats approve of John Kasich, making 57% of Ohio Democrats big morons who will fall for any snake oil salesman who says nice sounding anti-Trump words on the TV.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Two new polls. An Enquirer/Suffolk poll shows Cordray leading DeWine 43 to 36 with likely voters (the 16% of undecideds in that poll are heavily Republican though.) Quinnipiac poll shows Cordray leading 42-40 (within the MOE.) Crystal Ball has changed their rating of the race from Lean R to Tossup.

Q poll also shows that 57% of Ohio Democrats approve of John Kasich, making 57% of Ohio Democrats ing morons who will fall for any snake oil salesman who says nice sounding anti-Trump words on the TV.

Holy hell! I honestly didn't expect Cordray to be up in any non internal polls this far out! Sabado moved OH-Gov to tossup and OH-Sen to Likely D. YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES.

[BuckeyeNut]

Good numbers in for the Democrats today, especially on the Downticket

Governor

D: Fmr CFPB Chair Cordray raised $2.727m, has $2.603m COH
R: Attorney General DeWine raised $3.070m, has $7.204m COH

Attorney General

D: Frmr US Atty Dettelbach raised $695k, has $2.672m COH
R: Auditor Yost raised $245k, has $2.811m COH

Secretary of State

D: State Rep. Clyde raised $378k, has $1.175m COH
R: State Sen. LaRose raised $215k, has $900k COH

Treasurer

D: Citizen Richardson raised $212k, has $609k COH
R: State Rep. Sprague raised $366k, has $252k COH

Auditor

D: Frmr US Rep. Space raised $271k, has $605k COH
R: Frmr Sen. Pres. Faber raised $61k, has $785k COH

--

What stands out is Richardson's relatively low haul, though he's crushing Sprague with Cash on Hand. Similarly, Faber put up an objectively terrible showing, though he still has a lead over Space with Cash on Hand, though that lead is quickly disappearing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeWine managed to take another winnable race to a competetive race again, just like in 2006, when he faced off against Sherrod Brown.  DeWine, who won AG handily, has high vulnerablity ratings.

[KingSweden]

I feel very good about downticket Ohio Democrats. Just need Cordray to pull it out for the sweep!

[ON Progressive]

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That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

[BuckeyeNut]

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That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

So Faber’s term in the State Senate, and his tenure as President, ended in 2016. He’s been in the State House since then, very conmon for Ohio legislators do a switcheroo. Point being, at the end of each year, Columbus Monthly puts out a superlatives list for legislators, and Faber always cleaned up with the worst ones. In the 2016 edition, with Faber headed to the House, Columbus Monthly noted he would have a lot of trouble getting his calls returned after ending his run as Senate President.

And they were right.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

So Faber’s term in the State Senate, and his tenure as President, ended in 2016. He’s been in the State House since then, very conmon for Ohio legislators do a switcheroo. Point being, at the end of each year, Columbus Monthly puts out a superlatives list for legislators, and Faber always cleaned up with the worst ones. In the 2016 edition, with Faber headed to the House, Columbus Monthly noted he would have a lot of trouble getting his calls returned after ending his run as Senate President.

And they were right.

Yeah, Faber sucks