OH: More Money Stuff (August)
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  OH: More Money Stuff (August)
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1800 on: July 20, 2018, 12:10:09 PM »

Zaybay: I think we are on the cusp of a good night, right now. And we really need a good night, since we won't break the supermajority otherwise. And Cordray can't do a whole lot as Governor if Democrats remain in the superminority since even though we might expect some more bipartisan work across the aisle with reduced Republican margins, it will mostly be moderates who are purged. And actually the two seats Democrats are all but certain to pick up feature pretty moderate Republicans already.

Ohioguy: My first round of predicts I was being a little more liberal, and now I'm being a bit more conservative. Sappington is putting in incredible work, but Jay Edwards is receiving a lot of institutional support. With Helle, he just hasn't been the rock star I thought he would be. It also looks like we've also all but conceded the 55th in Lorain County, which is super disappointing.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1801 on: July 23, 2018, 08:27:52 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2018, 09:59:15 PM by THE BuckeyeNut »

However bad the House is, the Senate is worse.

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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #1802 on: July 24, 2018, 01:19:16 PM »

I'm more optimistic about the Ohio Senate than you and I didn't even think I was that optimistic! What happened in SD-3 is ridiculous though. Franklin County Dems need to get it together.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1803 on: July 24, 2018, 02:13:53 PM »

I'm more optimistic about the Ohio Senate than you and I didn't even think I was that optimistic! What happened in SD-3 is ridiculous though. Franklin County Dems need to get it together.

Really not on FCDP, for once. This is the second time in as many cycles that Husted has invalidated an A-list recruit for the most winnable state legislative district in either chamber over relatively minor errors he has excused in other districts.

Husted is not our friend, and for that matter, neither is Frank LaRose.
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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #1804 on: July 25, 2018, 01:49:49 AM »

I'm more optimistic about the Ohio Senate than you and I didn't even think I was that optimistic! What happened in SD-3 is ridiculous though. Franklin County Dems need to get it together.

Really not on FCDP, for once. This is the second time in as many cycles that Husted has invalidated an A-list recruit for the most winnable state legislative district in either chamber over relatively minor errors he has excused in other districts.

Husted is not our friend, and for that matter, neither is Frank LaRose.

I didn't know, I thought FCDP had actually messed up. Not surprising from Husted though. I just always assume the worst from them and Cuyahoga Dems (more CCDP than FCDP though.) Of the "big three," it seems like Hamilton County is the only county party doing a really good job. Hopefully Hamilton County keeps that up; safe blue areas often have dysfunctional Dem parties and Hamilton County might become safe blue in the not so distant future.
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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #1805 on: July 25, 2018, 01:52:27 AM »

Still curious why you think those Butler County seats are even a little bit competitive, btw. I don't.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1806 on: July 25, 2018, 08:26:08 AM »

I'm more optimistic about the Ohio Senate than you and I didn't even think I was that optimistic! What happened in SD-3 is ridiculous though. Franklin County Dems need to get it together.

Really not on FCDP, for once. This is the second time in as many cycles that Husted has invalidated an A-list recruit for the most winnable state legislative district in either chamber over relatively minor errors he has excused in other districts.

Husted is not our friend, and for that matter, neither is Frank LaRose.

I didn't know, I thought FCDP had actually messed up. Not surprising from Husted though. I just always assume the worst from them and Cuyahoga Dems (more CCDP than FCDP though.) Of the "big three," it seems like Hamilton County is the only county party doing a really good job. Hopefully Hamilton County keeps that up; safe blue areas often have dysfunctional Dem parties and Hamilton County might become safe blue in the not so distant future.

FCDP is leagues better than CCDP and is generally fairly competent, but HCDP is definitely more competently run looking in from the outside. That said, HCDP has two things going for it that neither FCDP nor CCDP have going for them.

1: HCDP benefits from having David Pepper Chairman in charge of ODP. Over the past decade, it's been clear the balance of Democrats political power in Ohio -- as in the rest of the country -- has been shifting south and west from the historic base in the northeast. Pepper in charge has accelerated this shift by funneling resources to the southwest, mostly into Hamilton County, but also Warren, Butler, and even Clinton County through the Mainstreet Program.

2: Franklin County and Cuyahoga County are Safe D counties. In some ways, this makes it harder for the parties to do their job, especially as the machines break down and the focus becomes not winning the general but winning the primary and consolidating power, which can cause nasty factionalism to emerge that sometimes spillover and dampen electoral prospects. (ex: O'Connor only jumping into OH-12 because Zach Scott was running.)

Hamilton County isn't there yet.

--

I'm not so bullish on Butler County, Likely R is still pretty damn strong for the Republicans. There's really just one seat that looks like it's truly competitive, and that's HD 53. Why I rank it only Lean R? Strong Democrat recruit who has consistently outraised the Republican incumbent, very strong primary showing compared to past years, and an absolutely insane incumbent who is likely to turn off the well-educated voters in the Oxford area, which constitutes a strong plurality of the district's population.
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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #1807 on: July 25, 2018, 01:27:24 PM »

I'm more optimistic about the Ohio Senate than you and I didn't even think I was that optimistic! What happened in SD-3 is ridiculous though. Franklin County Dems need to get it together.

Really not on FCDP, for once. This is the second time in as many cycles that Husted has invalidated an A-list recruit for the most winnable state legislative district in either chamber over relatively minor errors he has excused in other districts.

Husted is not our friend, and for that matter, neither is Frank LaRose.

I didn't know, I thought FCDP had actually messed up. Not surprising from Husted though. I just always assume the worst from them and Cuyahoga Dems (more CCDP than FCDP though.) Of the "big three," it seems like Hamilton County is the only county party doing a really good job. Hopefully Hamilton County keeps that up; safe blue areas often have dysfunctional Dem parties and Hamilton County might become safe blue in the not so distant future.

FCDP is leagues better than CCDP and is generally fairly competent, but HCDP is definitely more competently run looking in from the outside. That said, HCDP has two things going for it that neither FCDP nor CCDP have going for them.

1: HCDP benefits from having David Pepper Chairman in charge of ODP. Over the past decade, it's been clear the balance of Democrats political power in Ohio -- as in the rest of the country -- has been shifting south and west from the historic base in the northeast. Pepper in charge has accelerated this shift by funneling resources to the southwest, mostly into Hamilton County, but also Warren, Butler, and even Clinton County through the Mainstreet Program.

2: Franklin County and Cuyahoga County are Safe D counties. In some ways, this makes it harder for the parties to do their job, especially as the machines break down and the focus becomes not winning the general but winning the primary and consolidating power, which can cause nasty factionalism to emerge that sometimes spillover and dampen electoral prospects. (ex: O'Connor only jumping into OH-12 because Zach Scott was running.)

Hamilton County isn't there yet.

--

I'm not so bullish on Butler County, Likely R is still pretty damn strong for the Republicans. There's really just one seat that looks like it's truly competitive, and that's HD 53. Why I rank it only Lean R? Strong Democrat recruit who has consistently outraised the Republican incumbent, very strong primary showing compared to past years, and an absolutely insane incumbent who is likely to turn off the well-educated voters in the Oxford area, which constitutes a strong plurality of the district's population.

FCDP is miles above CCDP, and I agree with you analysis. FCDP seems competent, I'm just really spoiled down here, our Dem party is honestly amazing. I do think we'll get some of the problems Franklin has as we become bluer; I already sense beginning people ready to start infighting and purity testing (these people are a tiny minority who's completely ignored right now but that's unlikely to be true in ten years.)

HD-53 actually swung towards Trump (as did Butler County as a whole), so I disagree that educated voters in that district will be turned off by insanity (except for Democrats living in Oxford, and there's not any more of them now than there was in all the other elections we've lost there.) Educated voters in central Ohio swung more Democratic, but this did not happen in southwest Ohio outside of Hamilton County. Well off, college educated people in Butler, Warren, etc. are like "Tax cuts and racism? Hot diggety dog!" From what I know of Butler County, Candace Keller is giving them exactly what they want.

I also question whether Rebecca Howard is a strong candidate when I see her website. I might reach out to her and offer to rewrite it. I hate Keller so much, and Howard is clearly a great person who's pure of heart. I want her to have a chance. I also think being a lesbian hurts her in this district. However, I can see your argument here when I look at the fundraising disparity. Good grief! Still, it's likely R at best (I still say solid R; all the money in the world doesn't matter if these are your voters.)

I can also at least see the argument for HD-52 being likely R; Wyenandt is a unusually strong candidate imo. I see no argument for HD-51 though; that one would've been a struggle even if Drunky McDriver survived his primary, but he didn't.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1808 on: July 25, 2018, 07:37:09 PM »

I don't disagree that the GOP is prone to support nutjobs, but Keller has gotten in hot water several times already and she's only a freshman legislator. She's not yet entrenched by any means. I also don't think the fact that Howard is a lesbian is that detrimental -- Warren County elected a lesbian to Lebanon City Council last year. Nerds like us are a good deal about candidates' websites but I don't think the average voter does, especially not for the state legislature. That said, if you want to help Howard out, that'd be very cool! Not enough people on Atlas are actually involved and volunteering, which is a shame.

HD 52 could be Lean R as well, but the DPI is so much lower than even in HD 53.  As for HD 51, I'd check the latest fundraising numbers. Plus, it's actually the most winnable on paper, if only slightly.

HD 51 DPI - 36.21%
HD 52 DPI - 25.70%
HD 53 DPI - 35.30%
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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #1809 on: July 25, 2018, 08:39:12 PM »

I don't disagree that the GOP is prone to support nutjobs, but Keller has gotten in hot water several times already and she's only a freshman legislator. She's not yet entrenched by any means. I also don't think the fact that Howard is a lesbian is that detrimental -- Warren County elected a lesbian to Lebanon City Council last year. Nerds like us are a good deal about candidates' websites but I don't think the average voter does, especially not for the state legislature. That said, if you want to help Howard out, that'd be very cool! Not enough people on Atlas are actually involved and volunteering, which is a shame.

HD 52 could be Lean R as well, but the DPI is so much lower than even in HD 53.  As for HD 51, I'd check the latest fundraising numbers. Plus, it's actually the most winnable on paper, if only slightly.

HD 51 DPI - 36.21%
HD 52 DPI - 25.70%
HD 53 DPI - 35.30%


I see that Carruthers didn't raise anything. However, she's independently wealthy and can self fund no problem; I assume that's what the $72,000 of "other income" is. And Susan Vaughn raised $665 last quarter, so it's not like Carruthers is being crushed.

Ultimately, I might be more willing to buy your arguments here if you had less conservative ratings overall. As it is, I'm skeptical. This thread has been a reminder to me that I should look over the most recent fundraising numbers though; not sure if I ever got around to that. I checked out of politics for a few months.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1810 on: July 25, 2018, 08:42:35 PM »

I don't disagree that the GOP is prone to support nutjobs, but Keller has gotten in hot water several times already and she's only a freshman legislator. She's not yet entrenched by any means. I also don't think the fact that Howard is a lesbian is that detrimental -- Warren County elected a lesbian to Lebanon City Council last year. Nerds like us are a good deal about candidates' websites but I don't think the average voter does, especially not for the state legislature. That said, if you want to help Howard out, that'd be very cool! Not enough people on Atlas are actually involved and volunteering, which is a shame.

HD 52 could be Lean R as well, but the DPI is so much lower than even in HD 53.  As for HD 51, I'd check the latest fundraising numbers. Plus, it's actually the most winnable on paper, if only slightly.

HD 51 DPI - 36.21%
HD 52 DPI - 25.70%
HD 53 DPI - 35.30%


I see that Carruthers didn't raise anything. However, she's independently wealthy and can self fund no problem; I assume that's what the $72,000 of "other income" is. And Susan Vaughn raised $665 last quarter, so it's not like Carruthers is being crushed.

Ultimately, I might be more willing to buy your arguments here if you had less conservative ratings overall. As it is, I'm skeptical. This thread has been a reminder to me that I should look over the most recent fundraising numbers though; not sure if I ever got around to that. I checked out of politics for a few months.

Oh LMAO. I messed up my spreadsheet and put Carruthers and Vaughan's numbers in the opposite columns. HD 51 should have shifted from Very Likely R to Safe R, not Likey R.
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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #1811 on: July 25, 2018, 08:45:51 PM »

I was wondering lol.

I also feel I should clarify that I don't think being a lesbian kills Howard or anything. It's just one thing that hurts her in a district where she's already at a disadvantage.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1812 on: July 26, 2018, 12:15:03 AM »

Perhaps. FTR, the city of Oxford and Oxford Township combined gave Hillary Clinton 63.92% of the two-party vote, and the city and township combined equals roughly 15% of the vote in the district, and I am sure someone like Howard, who seems to be a well-known community figure, can drive that number up a good bit higher. It also looks like the few Safe D precincts within Middletown are within the 53rd along with some more fertile ground in the city. Clinton getting roughly 41% overall in the HD 53 portion of Middletown, which overall equals roughly 25% of the district.

So it looks like there's solid room for growth in just under 40% of the district. The issue is the remaining 60% in between Oxford and Middletown. There's also Monroe, which accounts for around 10% of the district, and where Clinton got 33% of the vote. I am sure Howard will do better than Clinton in Oxford, Middletown, and to a lesser degree, Monroe, but there are a lot of 75% Trump-25% Clinton precincts in between, and doing 5% better out there doesn't bring it home for Howard even with a 10% positive swing in the more densely populated areas.

I think a bad showing for Howard right now is around 36%, and a good showing is around 45%. I'll admit, I'm not sure how she gets the last 5% ... unless a Libertarian's filed since they've regained their ballot access.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1813 on: August 04, 2018, 11:46:25 AM »

Really good fundraising for the down ticket statewide Democrats, who all had to file earlier this week.

Attorney General
Frmr US Atty Steve Dettelbach raised $751k, has $3.4 mil on hand
Ohio Auditor David Yost raised $237k, has $3 mil on hand

Secretary of State
State Rep Kathleen Clyde raised $338k, has $1.5 mil on hand
State Sen Frank LaRose raised $462k, has $1.4 mil on hand

Auditor
Frmr US Rep Zack Space raised $239k, has $844k on hand
Frmr State Sen Pres Keith Faber raised $157k, has $1 mil on hand

Treasurer
UC Trustee Rob Richardson raised $468k, has $1 mil on hand
State Rep Robert Sprague raised $109k, has $362k on hand

And of course, the Gubernatorial candidates filed as well.

Cordray: $2.7 mil raised, $5.3 mil COH
DeWine: $2.3 mil raised, $9.6 mil COH



Right now I consider all the statewide offices tossup, except in the race cor Auditor, which is Lean D.
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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #1814 on: August 04, 2018, 12:32:43 PM »

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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1815 on: August 05, 2018, 09:20:13 AM »

Good content, but he’s just so boring. I’ve given up on ever seeing him with some fire.
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #1816 on: August 05, 2018, 10:32:21 AM »



I do like Cordray but I always thought people exaggerated when they said that he was boring. I now can see that he really is that boring.
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Sherrod Brown Shill
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« Reply #1817 on: August 05, 2018, 10:46:37 AM »
« Edited: August 05, 2018, 10:50:06 AM by Sherrod Brown Shill »



I do like Cordray but I always thought people exaggerated when they said that he was boring. I now can see that he really is that boring.

Have any of you ever personally see Cordray speak? IMO he is much better in person.
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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #1818 on: August 05, 2018, 12:32:09 PM »

Good content, but he’s just so boring. I’ve given up on ever seeing him with some fire.

Luckily he is up against Mike DeWine, so at least there's a level playing field.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1819 on: August 05, 2018, 01:15:07 PM »



I do like Cordray but I always thought people exaggerated when they said that he was boring. I now can see that he really is that boring.

Have any of you ever personally see Cordray speak? IMO he is much better in person.

Nooooooooooooooo he isn't.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1820 on: August 05, 2018, 05:55:14 PM »



I do like Cordray but I always thought people exaggerated when they said that he was boring. I now can see that he really is that boring.

As a populace we need to get passed these shallow and superficial expectations for our politicians. Vote for whomever you think will do a better job in elected office, that's ultimately what matters...or what should matter.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1821 on: August 05, 2018, 05:56:51 PM »



I do like Cordray but I always thought people exaggerated when they said that he was boring. I now can see that he really is that boring.

As a populace we need to get passed these shallow and superficial expectations for our politicians. Vote for whomever you think will do a better job in elected office, that's ultimately what matters...or what should matter.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1822 on: August 05, 2018, 09:08:23 PM »
« Edited: August 05, 2018, 10:47:30 PM by THE BuckeyeNut »



I do like Cordray but I always thought people exaggerated when they said that he was boring. I now can see that he really is that boring.

As a populace we need to get passed these shallow and superficial expectations for our politicians. Vote for whomever you think will do a better job in elected office, that's ultimately what matters...or what should matter.

And as a politician, Cordray needs to fire up his base to win. He's not there.

It does admittedly help that DeWine is also quite boring.
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OneJ
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« Reply #1823 on: August 05, 2018, 10:23:04 PM »

Boring worked just fine for Roy Cooper and Ralph Northam.

Plus, if the recent WI polls are indicative of anything then it’s Evers’ race to lose.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1824 on: August 06, 2018, 11:19:43 AM »

Interesting tidbit: Hillary Clinton made a max donation to Clyde’s Campaign for SOS. And that’s a pretty penny. Roughly $12.7k!
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