OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[BuckeyeNut]

Jack Cera's opponent dropped out of the race due to "family issues," so now he is running unopposed. It's too late for Republicans to replace their guy on the ballot or mount a write in campaign for someone. Safe D->Safer D

Eeeeeh. Cera wasn't really safe. The fundamentals in the 96th are that bad.

This is good news.

[Sestak]

What, just "family issues"? No other info as to what happened?

[Ohioguy29]

What, just "family issues"? No other info as to what happened?

He had an affair. Nothing particularly juicy.

[bagelman]

Man, Cordray and DeWine are both super lame

https://twitter.com/JMBorchardt/status/1036973897843990528

Other highlights:

• Cordray has smoked weed. DANK governor confirmed.
• DeWine says he hasn't read the Bible all the way through. For SHAME #christians4cordray
• Remember that article about how the candidates are "two different kinds of boring" and the writer says that DeWine is "like a grandpa on the porch going on about how much he enjoys pie?" DeWine mentions pie MULTIPLE times in this interview, like what the hell man.
• Cordray says if there's a movie about his life, he'll be played by Jack McBrayer.
  

sounds like Cordray has a good taste in music. rap music sucks.

problem is, he's too honest about it. should've came up with a "safe" answer like snoop dogg.

[libertpaulian]

Nah, I think a better contrast of their personalities would be that Cordray comes off as the "adorkable" type, whereas DeWine comes off as the cranky uncle that you have to deal with every Thanksgiving.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Columbus Dispatch is for Cordray.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In total, the Dispatch has endorsed the Democrats running for Governor, Auditor, and Senator. They’ve endorsed the Republicans running for Attorney General and Secretary of State. No word yet on Treasurer, but I’d hazard a guess they’ll break Republican to retain a 50-50 split.

If Democrats pick up Governor and Auditor, we will control redistricting even without Kathleen Clyde.

[Ohioguy29]

Nah, I think a better contrast of their personalities would be that Cordray comes off as the "adorkable" type, whereas DeWine comes off as the cranky uncle that you have to deal with every Thanksgiving.

Also accurate. Really there's a lot of ways to describe the nuances of boring.

[BuckeyeNut]

So where are people on Issue 1? After a lot of internal back and forth, I've decided I'll be supporting it. I ended up voting against the Drug Control legislation last Fall.

[Ohioguy29]

Just got done watching the third debate! This one was worth the watch, unlike the second one (which was a total snoozefest, at least what I watched of it.) Link here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Re7-qaQevmg

[Ohioguy29]

So where are people on Issue 1? After a lot of internal back and forth, I've decided I'll be supporting it. I ended up voting against the Drug Control legislation last Fall.

I'm planning on a yes vote. I was initially a non-hesitant yes, but then people I actually respect (aka not Mike DeWine) have mentioned the impact it could have on drug courts and that concerns me. In general I've thought about it more and I wish that there was some provision in there that would force people to seek treatment or at least strongly encourage it (there is the latter, but only for inmates.) I'm not a social libertarian, especially not on drug issues. But throwing people in jail didn't work in the '80s and it's not working now. I think this will be an improvement.

Side note, the fact that the Zuck supports this makes me want to reflexively vote no.

[Tekken_Guy]

Several potential for state gains in the Senate.

My targets would be 3, 5, 13, 19, and 29. Dems will be on the defensive in 33.

[Ohioguy29]

Those are the same districts I think are the best targets. However, while 3 looks great on paper, the candidate there is a disaster. We could still win just because of fundamentals though.

[BuckeyeNut]

5, 13, and 19 are our only realistic hopes. Our candidate in the 3rd is absolute trash. I guess the 29th could flip in a VERY good year, but 2018 would need to go better than 2008. If someone other than John Boccieri was tunning in the 33rd, I mught be more concerned, but he is a superb candidate—and also the likely 2022 nominee for Governor, should Cordray lose.

[BuckeyeNut]

Sort of related to the above, The Dispatch has released its list of the 22 legislative seats to watch this cycle, and I agree by and large. (I do think the Athens-based 94th is more competitive than they do, and I don’t feel great about our candidate in the suburban 6th.)

[Ohioguy29]

"Between September 2012 and August 2013, Attorney General Mike DeWine’s office twice declined to go after the drug manufacturers that flooded the market with addictive prescription opioids. Instead, DeWine waited to take legal action against these drug companies until May 2017—less than one month before declaring his bid for governor."

http://plunderbund.com/2018/10/15/documents-reveal-mike-dewine-declined-to-take-on-drug-companies-fueling-opioid-epidemic/

I expect we'll be seeing attack ads about this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Between September 2012 and August 2013, Attorney General Mike DeWine’s office twice declined to go after the drug manufacturers that flooded the market with addictive prescription opioids. Instead, DeWine waited to take legal action against these drug companies until May 2017—less than one month before declaring his bid for governor."

http://plunderbund.com/2018/10/15/documents-reveal-mike-dewine-declined-to-take-on-drug-companies-fueling-opioid-epidemic/

I expect we'll be seeing attack ads about this.

Cordray better hit him hard, yeah.

[BuckeyeNut]

Zack Space is now up on TV, meaning the only candidate who aren't are Keith Faber, Rob Richardson, and Robert Sprague.

[libertpaulian]

Has Aftab fallen off the face of the Earth?

[Ohioguy29]

Has Aftab fallen off the face of the Earth?

This belongs in the congressional elections forum. For the record, things are pretty uneventful down here, although Trump and Chabot did a rally on Friday and Aftab did one with John Lewis yesterday.

[Ohioguy29]

Like this ad from Cordray

https://twitter.com/RM_Patterson/status/1051855114632335360

[Tekken_Guy]

Sort of related to the above, The Dispatch has released its list of the 22 legislative seats to watch this cycle, and I agree by and large. (I do think the Athens-based 94th is more competitive than they do, and I don’t feel great about our candidate in the suburban 6th.)

I was thinking of a few other suburban districts for the house.

3: Bowling Green district that Trump won by only single digits. Gavarone will probably win here but Gordon could be an underdog.
7: Another suburban Cleveland district. It’s more Trump friendly than the 6th for sure. Aziz Ahmad could do well if Cordray prevails in the governor’s race.
16: This was Trump’s worst R-held Cleveland district. The biggest issue here is that the Dem has a weird name.
23: A less likely target than the other Columbus seats.


Many of those seats are in deep Trump territory. Reineke is super safe, his opponent’s unique background is the only thing keeping it on the map.

[BuckeyeNut]

I’d honestly expect HD-95, which went to trump HARD to flip before the 3rd, 7th, 16th, or 23rd. Tommy Greene really should have given in another run in the 16th, but he’s moved on to better things. Oh well. District 41 is another race flying under the radar.

—

A poll commisioned has DeWine +1 and Brown +12 in two new polls with MANY undecideds.

[Ohioguy29]

I’d honestly expect HD-95, which went to trump HARD to flip before the 3rd, 7th, 16th, or 23rd.

I second this. In the 3rd, Gordon dropped out due to health issues and Some Guy(tm) replaced him. I'm glad he stepped up but he doesn't have time to throw together much of a campaign. And I'm not seeing much in the 7th, 16th, or 23rd that gives me hope.

[BuckeyeNut]

I’d honestly expect HD-95, which went to trump HARD to flip before the 3rd, 7th, 16th, or 23rd.

I second this. In the 3rd, Gordon dropped out due to health issues and Some Guy(tm) replaced him. I'm glad he stepped up but he doesn't have time to throw together much of a campaign. And I'm not seeing much in the 7th, 16th, or 23rd that gives me hope.

Some Guy (tm), who, for whatever reason, OHROC actually feels the need to go up with negative TV against. Internal polling must be BAD for Republicans in Wood County.

[BuckeyeNut]

Our Revolution is canvassing for Rob Richardson and Issue 1 over Hustle.

Source: they texted me earlier today.