OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Rjjr77]

If it wasn't apparent before, Leland is all but definitely out as a candidate for Treasurer, since ODP Chairman Pepper basically recruited Richardson. While I still wish we were running someone with more experience, I've heard more good things about Richardson, and he evidently has very strong labor connections around the state.

Hes pretty much a lightweight and has that Cincy Loss hanging on his neck, but Treasurer is where you stick your weakest statewide

[BuckeyeNut]

If it wasn't apparent before, Leland is all but definitely out as a candidate for Treasurer, since ODP Chairman Pepper basically recruited Richardson. While I still wish we were running someone with more experience, I've heard more good things about Richardson, and he evidently has very strong labor connections around the state.

Hes pretty much a lightweight and has that Cincy Loss hanging on his neck, but Treasurer is where you stick your weakest statewide

For sure, for sure. But assuming Pillich doesn't get the nod from the Dems -- she won't -- he brings balance to the ticket as the only Black and only SW candidate. (Assuming we nominate Schiavoni or Sutton.)

Governor - NEOH
Lt. Gov. -
Atty Gen - NEOH
Sec. of State - NEOH
Auditor - Appalachian
Treasurer - Southwest

[Blair]

I haven't really followed this shadow primary in Ohio compared to the other races in Illinois, or Maryland but the impression I seem to have is that the Democratic field is relatively crap, and they're probably going to lose the Governors race.

Is this correct?

[BuckeyeNut]

I'd say they range from B+ to A-, grade wise. Cordray's continuous flirtation with entering has been bad for fundraising and establishing name ID, which will be crucial. The saving grace right now is that DeWine and Husted are going to go for each other's jugulars in the Republican primary. Right now, I'd say the race is Likely R. It could bump up to Safe R with Husted, depending on how things fair, or it could go to Tossup. The election is obviously a long way a way.

All that said, I'm generally more impressed with the downticket, with the exception of the aforementioned Treasurer candidate. Comparative A grade candidates running for Attorney General and Auditor, and a solid B+/A- for Secretary of State.

[Rjjr77]

I'd say they range from B+ to A-, grade wise. Cordray's continuous flirtation with entering has been bad for fundraising and establishing name ID, which will be crucial. The saving grace right now is that DeWine and Husted are going to go for each other's jugulars in the Republican primary. Right now, I'd say the race is Likely R. It could bump up to Safe R with Husted, depending on how things fair, or it could go to Tossup. The election is obviously a long way a way.

All that said, I'm generally more impressed with the downticket, with the exception of the aforementioned Treasurer candidate. Comparative A grade candidates running for Attorney General and Auditor, and a solid B+/A- for Secretary of State.

I'd rate the field much more pessimistically (although I am a pessimistic person)

Governor:
Rep- Husted A+, Dewine A-, Taylor B-, Renacci D+
Dem- Sutton B-, Schiavoni C+, Whaley C, Pillich C-

AG
Rep- Yost B
Dem- Dettlebach C+

SOS
Rep- Larose A, Pelanda C+
Dem- Clyde B-

Auditor
Rep- Faber B-
Dem- Space C+

Treasurer
Rep- Sprague B, Mingo C-
Dem- Richardson D-

[BuckeyeNut]

I'd say they range from B+ to A-, grade wise. Cordray's continuous flirtation with entering has been bad for fundraising and establishing name ID, which will be crucial. The saving grace right now is that DeWine and Husted are going to go for each other's jugulars in the Republican primary. Right now, I'd say the race is Likely R. It could bump up to Safe R with Husted, depending on how things fair, or it could go to Tossup. The election is obviously a long way a way.

All that said, I'm generally more impressed with the downticket, with the exception of the aforementioned Treasurer candidate. Comparative A grade candidates running for Attorney General and Auditor, and a solid B+/A- for Secretary of State.

I'd rate the field much more pessimistically (although I am a pessimistic person)

Governor:
Rep- Husted A+, Dewine A-, Taylor B-, Renacci D+
Dem- Sutton B-, Schiavoni C+, Whaley C, Pillich C-

AG
Rep- Yost B
Dem- Dettlebach C+

SOS
Rep- Larose A, Pelanda C+
Dem- Clyde B-

Auditor
Rep- Faber B-
Dem- Space C+

Treasurer
Rep- Sprague B, Mingo C-
Dem- Richardson D-

You've rated just about everyone very pessimistically, including your own(?) party's candidates.

And while I disagree with your assessment, even under your own metrics, B- v. C+ (Auditor) and B v. C+ (AG) should prove competitive.

[Rjjr77]

I'd say they range from B+ to A-, grade wise. Cordray's continuous flirtation with entering has been bad for fundraising and establishing name ID, which will be crucial. The saving grace right now is that DeWine and Husted are going to go for each other's jugulars in the Republican primary. Right now, I'd say the race is Likely R. It could bump up to Safe R with Husted, depending on how things fair, or it could go to Tossup. The election is obviously a long way a way.

All that said, I'm generally more impressed with the downticket, with the exception of the aforementioned Treasurer candidate. Comparative A grade candidates running for Attorney General and Auditor, and a solid B+/A- for Secretary of State.

I'd rate the field much more pessimistically (although I am a pessimistic person)

Governor:
Rep- Husted A+, Dewine A-, Taylor B-, Renacci D+
Dem- Sutton B-, Schiavoni C+, Whaley C, Pillich C-

AG
Rep- Yost B
Dem- Dettlebach C+

SOS
Rep- Larose A, Pelanda C+
Dem- Clyde B-

Auditor
Rep- Faber B-
Dem- Space C+

Treasurer
Rep- Sprague B, Mingo C-
Dem- Richardson D-

You've rated just about everyone very pessimistically, including your own(?) party's candidates.

And while I disagree with your assessment, even under your own metrics, B- v. C+ (Auditor) and B v. C+ (AG) should prove competitive.

I think its probably my years as a former political operative I see candidates flaws much more clearly.

I think races are absolutely competitive downballot, but I dont see an A candidate in the entire Dem slate, and only a few (Dewine due to name ID, and Husted and LaRose due to skill) in the republican side. I also think candidates grades are based on their race, if Mary Taylor for example were to drop down to Auditor she'd be an A+ candidate for that race. If Schiavoni were to drop to AG he'd be an A candidate for that race.

[BuckeyeNut]

That's fair enough, but I gotta stay positive. At the tail end of '14, you heard people say FitzGerald was going to lose -- which while obvious for a long time, was not something to be said. Similarly, I met coordinated campaign staff in August who went into voter persuasion completely writing Strickland off. Was he done at that point? All but certainly. Is that the attitude field staff should express? Eff no.

[Rjjr77]

That's fair enough, but I gotta stay positive. At the tail end of '14, you heard people say FitzGerald was going to lose -- which while obvious for a long time, was not something to be said. Similarly, I met coordinated campaign staff in August who went into voter persuasion completely writing Strickland off. Was he done at that point? All but certainly. Is that the attitude field staff should express? Eff no.

Thats tough, its hard to stay positive behind two campaigns that absolutely cratered. I'd say a lot of that is a weak and inexperienced bench, which is why I think Betty Sutton is the odds on favorite for the nomination among this group. Is she going to excite the democrat base, doubtful, is she going to be the most complete candidate democrats have run statewide not named brown since 2010? I think thats a strong yes. 2014 had to be tough in ohio as a democrat (as tough as 2006 was for many republicans across the nation) Fitzgerald, Pepper and Turner were running for the three top spots and were flawed weak candidates, the stronger candidates (Carney and Pillich) didnt seem ready for prime time

[BuckeyeNut]

That's fair enough, but I gotta stay positive. At the tail end of '14, you heard people say FitzGerald was going to lose -- which while obvious for a long time, was not something to be said. Similarly, I met coordinated campaign staff in August who went into voter persuasion completely writing Strickland off. Was he done at that point? All but certainly. Is that the attitude field staff should express? Eff no.

Thats tough, its hard to stay positive behind two campaigns that absolutely cratered. I'd say a lot of that is a weak and inexperienced bench, which is why I think Betty Sutton is the odds on favorite for the nomination among this group. Is she going to excite the democrat base, doubtful, is she going to be the most complete candidate democrats have run statewide not named brown since 2010? I think thats a strong yes. 2014 had to be tough in ohio as a democrat (as tough as 2006 was for many republicans across the nation) Fitzgerald, Pepper and Turner were running for the three top spots and were flawed weak candidates, the stronger candidates (Carney and Pillich) didnt seem ready for prime time

Yeah. Yeaaaaah.

Wish Brunner was running instead of Sutton, but oh well. Though, speaking of Sutton, another endorsement today: Vernon Sykes.

I'm hoping that if Leland does wind up on Sutton's ticket, Carney comes back. He remains a good candidate, IMO.

[Rjjr77]

That's fair enough, but I gotta stay positive. At the tail end of '14, you heard people say FitzGerald was going to lose -- which while obvious for a long time, was not something to be said. Similarly, I met coordinated campaign staff in August who went into voter persuasion completely writing Strickland off. Was he done at that point? All but certainly. Is that the attitude field staff should express? Eff no.

Thats tough, its hard to stay positive behind two campaigns that absolutely cratered. I'd say a lot of that is a weak and inexperienced bench, which is why I think Betty Sutton is the odds on favorite for the nomination among this group. Is she going to excite the democrat base, doubtful, is she going to be the most complete candidate democrats have run statewide not named brown since 2010? I think thats a strong yes. 2014 had to be tough in ohio as a democrat (as tough as 2006 was for many republicans across the nation) Fitzgerald, Pepper and Turner were running for the three top spots and were flawed weak candidates, the stronger candidates (Carney and Pillich) didnt seem ready for prime time

Yeah. Yeaaaaah.

Wish Brunner was running instead of Sutton, but oh well. Though, speaking of Sutton, another endorsement today: Vernon Sykes.

I'm hoping that if Leland does wind up on Sutton's ticket, Carney comes back. He remains a good candidate, IMO.

Vernon Sykes seals it, Vernon Sykes means absolutely Cordray isn't running, the guys a party creature with inroads to NE Ohio black communities.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say they range from B+ to A-, grade wise. Cordray's continuous flirtation with entering has been bad for fundraising and establishing name ID, which will be crucial. The saving grace right now is that DeWine and Husted are going to go for each other's jugulars in the Republican primary. Right now, I'd say the race is Likely R. It could bump up to Safe R with Husted, depending on how things fair, or it could go to Tossup. The election is obviously a long way a way.

All that said, I'm generally more impressed with the downticket, with the exception of the aforementioned Treasurer candidate. Comparative A grade candidates running for Attorney General and Auditor, and a solid B+/A- for Secretary of State.

I'd rate the field much more pessimistically (although I am a pessimistic person)

Governor:
Rep- Husted A+, Dewine A-, Taylor B-, Renacci D+
Dem- Sutton B-, Schiavoni C+, Whaley C, Pillich C-

AG
Rep- Yost B
Dem- Dettlebach C+

SOS
Rep- Larose A, Pelanda C+
Dem- Clyde B-

Auditor
Rep- Faber B-
Dem- Space C+

Treasurer
Rep- Sprague B, Mingo C-
Dem- Richardson D-

I'd say Governor:
Husted A+, DeWine A-/B+ (right on the border), Taylor C-, Renacci C-
Sutton C+, Schiavoni B, Whaley B-, Pillich C

SoS:
LaRose A, Palenda C
Clyde B

AG:
Yost B
Deittelbach A-

Treasurer:
Sprague B, Mingo C-
Richardson D-

Auditor:
Faber B
Space B

Right now, I think the Democrats win the AG and Auditor's races.  SoS is definitely possible, but I don't think Clyde will win unless 2018 is a real Democratic wave (which is very possible)

[BuckeyeNut]

Hey, who knows, maybe the Republicans will put up Palenda somehow. We never know. FWIW, I'm in much more agreement with your assessments, X. Though I might consider Palenda a C+ and both Space and Faber a B+.

Vernon Sykes seals it, Vernon Sykes means absolutely Cordray isn't running, the guys a party creature with inroads to NE Ohio black communities.

You know, I'd be inclined to agree if it weren't for the fact that Cordray is to appear in Columbus with Dettelbach on Friday with a speech titled, "The State of the CFPB and Moving Ahead." Still probably not getting in, but the door is just a hair open.

[Rjjr77]

I'd say they range from B+ to A-, grade wise. Cordray's continuous flirtation with entering has been bad for fundraising and establishing name ID, which will be crucial. The saving grace right now is that DeWine and Husted are going to go for each other's jugulars in the Republican primary. Right now, I'd say the race is Likely R. It could bump up to Safe R with Husted, depending on how things fair, or it could go to Tossup. The election is obviously a long way a way.

All that said, I'm generally more impressed with the downticket, with the exception of the aforementioned Treasurer candidate. Comparative A grade candidates running for Attorney General and Auditor, and a solid B+/A- for Secretary of State.

I'd rate the field much more pessimistically (although I am a pessimistic person)

Governor:
Rep- Husted A+, Dewine A-, Taylor B-, Renacci D+
Dem- Sutton B-, Schiavoni C+, Whaley C, Pillich C-

AG
Rep- Yost B
Dem- Dettlebach C+

SOS
Rep- Larose A, Pelanda C+
Dem- Clyde B-

Auditor
Rep- Faber B-
Dem- Space C+

Treasurer
Rep- Sprague B, Mingo C-
Dem- Richardson D-

I'd say Governor:
Husted A+, DeWine A-/B+ (right on the border), Taylor C-, Renacci C-
Sutton C+, Schiavoni B, Whaley B-, Pillich C

SoS:
LaRose A, Palenda C
Clyde B

AG:
Yost B
Deittelbach A-

Treasurer:
Sprague B, Mingo C-
Richardson D-

Auditor:
Faber B
Space B

Right now, I think the Democrats win the AG and Auditor's races.  SoS is definitely possible, but I don't think Clyde will win unless 2018 is a real Democratic wave (which is very possible)

These are decent ratings, I think they underrate built in state name ID though. Dettlebach may be a good get (still dont buy it, I'd double down he flames out bad) Mary Taylor is a lazy candidate and a terrible fundraiser and I still dont believe she'd ever be rated worse than Nan Whaley for any office simply because half the state knows who she is to start.

maybe its a bias of mine, but I dont think Clyde is a good candidate, she is the best candidate the democrats have run for SOS in 20 years not named Brunner though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say they range from B+ to A-, grade wise. Cordray's continuous flirtation with entering has been bad for fundraising and establishing name ID, which will be crucial. The saving grace right now is that DeWine and Husted are going to go for each other's jugulars in the Republican primary. Right now, I'd say the race is Likely R. It could bump up to Safe R with Husted, depending on how things fair, or it could go to Tossup. The election is obviously a long way a way.

All that said, I'm generally more impressed with the downticket, with the exception of the aforementioned Treasurer candidate. Comparative A grade candidates running for Attorney General and Auditor, and a solid B+/A- for Secretary of State.

I'd rate the field much more pessimistically (although I am a pessimistic person)

Governor:
Rep- Husted A+, Dewine A-, Taylor B-, Renacci D+
Dem- Sutton B-, Schiavoni C+, Whaley C, Pillich C-

AG
Rep- Yost B
Dem- Dettlebach C+

SOS
Rep- Larose A, Pelanda C+
Dem- Clyde B-

Auditor
Rep- Faber B-
Dem- Space C+

Treasurer
Rep- Sprague B, Mingo C-
Dem- Richardson D-

I'd say Governor:
Husted A+, DeWine A-/B+ (right on the border), Taylor C-, Renacci C-
Sutton C+, Schiavoni B, Whaley B-, Pillich C

SoS:
LaRose A, Palenda C
Clyde B

AG:
Yost B
Deittelbach A-

Treasurer:
Sprague B, Mingo C-
Richardson D-

Auditor:
Faber B
Space B

Right now, I think the Democrats win the AG and Auditor's races.  SoS is definitely possible, but I don't think Clyde will win unless 2018 is a real Democratic wave (which is very possible)

These are decent ratings, I think they underrate built in state name ID though. Dettlebach may be a good get (still dont buy it, I'd double down he flames out bad) Mary Taylor is a lazy candidate and a terrible fundraiser and I still dont believe she'd ever be rated worse than Nan Whaley for any office simply because half the state knows who she is to start.

maybe its a bias of mine, but I dont think Clyde is a good candidate, she is the best candidate the democrats have run for SOS in 20 years not named Brunner though.

Part of why I'm placing less emphasis on name ID than usual is I think it matters less for row offices in wave years.  In Taylor's case, I may be biased, but she's always struck me as being just a complete disaster of a candidate for Governor and I think she was pretty incompetent at almost everything she did as LG.  Plus, the way she tried to exploit her kids struggles with opiate addiction for political gain was so transparent that I think it actually damaged her brand a bit. 

[ShadowRocket]

The CFPB announced a new payday lending rule the other day: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/business/payday-loans-cfpb.html

I think he may finally get a clear yes or no from Cordray in the coming weeks as it had been speculated that he was waiting on signing off on this new rule before possibly leaving the CFPB to run for governor.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The CFPB announced a new payday lending rule the other day: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/business/payday-loans-cfpb.html

I think he may finally get a clear yes or no from Cordray in the coming weeks as it had been speculated that he was waiting on signing off on this new rule before possibly leaving the CFPB to run for governor.

Guys, he's not running. 

[Rjjr77]

The CFPB announced a new payday lending rule the other day: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/business/payday-loans-cfpb.html

I think he may finally get a clear yes or no from Cordray in the coming weeks as it had been speculated that he was waiting on signing off on this new rule before possibly leaving the CFPB to run for governor.

Guys, he's not running. 

^This
It is way too late to hop into a marquee race in Ohio.

[Kingpoleon]

I'd like to see Kenny Yuko or Mike Duffey run for Treasurer.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'd like to see Kenny Yuko or Mike Duffey run for Treasurer.

Mike Duffey is human garbage, and I can't wait to take his seat next year. I only wish he wasn't term limited so he could feel the pain of loss.

[Rjjr77]

I'd like to see Kenny Yuko or Mike Duffey run for Treasurer.

Kenny Yuko might be the most irrelevant elected official, plus hes pushing 70

[BuckeyeNut]

The Republican candidates for Governor took the debate stage Sunday night, with moderator Frank Luntz -- remember him? He's done some interesting polling of the race -- and the one thing all candidates seemed to agree upon: Kasich's not conservative enough.

At the end of the debate, Luntz pleaded with the candidates to keep it civil. Since then, a Renacci campaign team member posted this to Facebook.



Renacci has next to no-shot, but his feud with Husted is getting ugly, and Husted has been firing back. If Democrats are lucky, Renacci might push DeWine over the top, or inspire some hardline conservatives to stay home because, in his own words, Husted is a "liberal."

[Badger]

The Republican candidates for Governor took the debate stage Sunday night, with moderator Frank Luntz -- remember him? He's done some interesting polling of the race -- and the one thing all candidates seemed to agree upon: Kasich's not conservative enough.

At the end of the debate, Luntz pleaded with the candidates to keep it civil. Since then, a Renacci campaign team member posted this to Facebook.



Renacci has next to no-shot, but his feud with Husted is getting ugly, and Husted has been firing back. If Democrats are lucky, Renacci might push DeWine over the top, or inspire some hardline conservatives to stay home because, in his own words, Husted is a "liberal."

Kasich is one of the last few sane elected officials in my party anymore. And he's a bit conservative for my taste for that matter. My party is going to hell

[Seattle]

Time to switch to the red side...?

Didn't you have a D avatar for the 2012 election season?

[rpryor03]

Mike DeWine!