OH: More Money Stuff (August)
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1050 on: November 18, 2017, 11:30:01 AM »

I think it's safe to say that as a Democrat I'll be supporting either Cordray or Sutton...but unless Republicans just don't campaign, they're favored here. All four of their candidates have serious name recognition advantages...and if I were a Democrat, which I am, I'd be especially afraid of DeWine or Husted winning the Primary.

lol

No one other than Husted or DeWine can win the primary.

Doesn't Renacci have money and a very Trumpy profile?

He is independently wealthy, but he's not going anywhere. At best, he'll act as a spoiler and push DeWine over the edge against Husted.

DeWine has name ID in the 90% range and a 60% approval rating.

If Trump is still popular among Ohio Republicans, it's possible Renacci pulls off the upset. The only Republican who can't win (and currently is in the race) is Taylor, who is too closely aligned to the unpopular Kasich administration. She might be better off switching to the Senate race, and taking on Mandel.

Renacci really is DoA. No one knows who he is, and while independently wealthy, he won't actually spend his money. Just loan it to himself so he seems viable. Husted's got plenty of Trump cred, as is.

Also, I was just listening to the BBC. They're talking about O'Neil.

Re: Husted: Husted is one of the very few (the only?) Republican politicians who has managed thus far to:

- 1) Explicitly refuse to endorse Trump in 2016 while also presenting himself as someone who is at least generally open to working with the other side in good-faith, thus maintaining real credibility among independents and even make himself semi-acceptable to some Democrats

- 2) Believably distanced himself from Trump & his faction in the OH GOP post-2016 in a way that has provided him with strong support from the many anti-Trump Republicans planning to protest vote against most Republicans in 2018 in places like Franklin County, Lake County*, Hamilton County, certain parts of Montgomery County, etc.

- 3) Somehow do all of the above while still remaining relatively popular with the Trumpists

Re: O'Neill: The scuttlebutt I've heard is that O'Neill decided he didn't want to step aside for Cordray after all and – apparently forgetting which side's primary he was running in – decided his best shot at winning was to make a big play for Trump voters (b/c that's totally who Bill O'Neill's logical base would be /s).  Being Bill O'Neill, he naturally went about it in one of the most offensive and batsh!t insane ways imaginable yet was genuinely shocked that anyone was offended.  Again, this is just what I've heard so take it with a grain of salt, but it wouldn't surprise me and would also explain why he started freaking out about athletes taking a knee.

*Joyce really can't afford to be asleep at the wheel in 2018 even though Democrats are running a C-lister against him this cycle because of course they are Tongue 
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #1051 on: November 18, 2017, 12:36:28 PM »

Will there be significant ticket splitting in Ohio 2018?
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1052 on: November 18, 2017, 02:28:40 PM »

Well, O'Neill is going to go out whether he likes it or not. I don't see how he's ever going to get invited to a debate, and the number of groups willing to have him is going to be low.

I could see the backlash energizing O'Neill to stay in, but at the same time, it gives him an opportunity to bow out. Not gracefully, but bow out.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #1053 on: November 18, 2017, 04:25:22 PM »

O'Neill already said he was dropping out once Cordray entered. He probably just doesn't care anymore.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #1054 on: November 18, 2017, 08:23:52 PM »

I think it's safe to say that as a Democrat I'll be supporting either Cordray or Sutton...but unless Republicans just don't campaign, they're favored here. All four of their candidates have serious name recognition advantages...and if I were a Democrat, which I am, I'd be especially afraid of DeWine or Husted winning the Primary.

lol

No one other than Husted or DeWine can win the primary.

Doesn't Renacci have money and a very Trumpy profile?

He is independently wealthy, but he's not going anywhere. At best, he'll act as a spoiler and push DeWine over the edge against Husted.

DeWine has name ID in the 90% range and a 60% approval rating.

If Trump is still popular among Ohio Republicans, it's possible Renacci pulls off the upset. The only Republican who can't win (and currently is in the race) is Taylor, who is too closely aligned to the unpopular Kasich administration. She might be better off switching to the Senate race, and taking on Mandel.

Renacci really is DoA. No one knows who he is, and while independently wealthy, he won't actually spend his money. Just loan it to himself so he seems viable. Husted's got plenty of Trump cred, as is.

Also, I was just listening to the BBC. They're talking about O'Neil.

Re: Husted: Husted is one of the very few (the only?) Republican politicians who has managed thus far to:

- 1) Explicitly refuse to endorse Trump in 2016 while also presenting himself as someone who is at least generally open to working with the other side in good-faith, thus maintaining real credibility among independents and even make himself semi-acceptable to some Democrats

- 2) Believably distanced himself from Trump & his faction in the OH GOP post-2016 in a way that has provided him with strong support from the many anti-Trump Republicans planning to protest vote against most Republicans in 2018 in places like Franklin County, Lake County*, Hamilton County, certain parts of Montgomery County, etc.

- 3) Somehow do all of the above while still remaining relatively popular with the Trumpists

Re: O'Neill: The scuttlebutt I've heard is that O'Neill decided he didn't want to step aside for Cordray after all and – apparently forgetting which side's primary he was running in – decided his best shot at winning was to make a big play for Trump voters (b/c that's totally who Bill O'Neill's logical base would be /s).  Being Bill O'Neill, he naturally went about it in one of the most offensive and batsh!t insane ways imaginable yet was genuinely shocked that anyone was offended.  Again, this is just what I've heard so take it with a grain of salt, but it wouldn't surprise me and would also explain why he started freaking out about athletes taking a knee.

*Joyce really can't afford to be asleep at the wheel in 2018 even though Democrats are running a C-lister against him this cycle because of course they are Tongue 

Pretty much this. Husted's managed to be the most conservative person in the field to the Constitutionalists, the most moderate in the field to the Moderates, and Trump enough for the Trump Train.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1055 on: November 18, 2017, 09:47:19 PM »

Husted under fire for using tax dollars to put out campaign advertising -- Mandel's done the same thing in his Senate campaign.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #1056 on: November 18, 2017, 09:52:33 PM »


H u s t e d i s u n s t o p p a b l e
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Badger
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« Reply #1057 on: November 19, 2017, 03:37:18 AM »


I didn't see anything new in that story you linked. What am I missing? Huh
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1058 on: November 19, 2017, 03:40:11 AM »


I didn't see anything new in that story you linked. What am I missing? Huh

It was new when I posted it?

Or, at least, other stories were keeping the Goodman news to a minimum of vague sexual misconduct.
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ibagli
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« Reply #1059 on: November 19, 2017, 04:37:09 AM »

]Husted under fire for using tax dollars to put out campaign advertising -- Mandel's done the same thing in his Senate campaign.

I figured this would be about the absentee voting literature, where his name is visible from the space station.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1060 on: November 19, 2017, 11:21:38 AM »

]Husted under fire for using tax dollars to put out campaign advertising -- Mandel's done the same thing in his Senate campaign.

I figured this would be about the absentee voting literature, where his name is visible from the space station.

Heh. I'm not sure what Brunner and past Secretaries of State did, but Husted's used the powers of office pretty egregiously in the pursuit of building name ID.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1061 on: November 19, 2017, 11:45:12 AM »
« Edited: November 19, 2017, 11:47:51 AM by We Have A Pope »

]Husted under fire for using tax dollars to put out campaign advertising -- Mandel's done the same thing in his Senate campaign.

I figured this would be about the absentee voting literature, where his name is visible from the space station.

Heh. I'm not sure what Brunner and past Secretaries of State did, but Husted's used the powers of office pretty egregiously in the pursuit of building name ID.

I agree 100% although even I have to admit that I was pleasantly surprised by how well he handled the SB5 stuff and I do think that he'd be someone who Democrats could work with if he's elected Governor.  I don't think that's true of DeWine and it's certainly not true of Renacci and Taylor (the latter of whom can't even be trusted to work with members of her own party in good faith).  

Husted is someone who I worry about as a potential Presidential candidate down the road, especially given his talent for simultaneously appealing to just about every major Republican faction, independents, and being seen as non-threatening/relatively inoffensive to Democrats without coming across as an insincere panderer.  If Toomey is re-elected in 2022 (and that's a really big "if"), a Husted/Toomey ticket or a Husted/Sasse ticket could be really strong in 2024, especially if Trump loses re-election in 2020 (depending upon the political environment, of course).  I mention Sasse and Toomey because they both overlap a bit with Husted's brand of coming across as a friendly Smiley Smiley ReasonableGuy Smiley Smiley who "sounds like a moderate" despite being pretty right-wing (Sasse and Toomey are probably even more right-wing than Husted, but Sasse in particular always makes a point of not using the typical right-wing speaking style).  Alternatively, Husted could also be a strong VP pick (that might actually be more likely come to think of it), especially if Sherrod Brown is on the Democratic ticket).  
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1062 on: November 19, 2017, 08:31:43 PM »

Vox just ran an article about Clinton's lack of field. The relevance?

Quote
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Anyone who thinks Clinton didn't triage Ohio by August is kidding themselves. The good news here is Democrats can still win here with a proper investment.

]Husted under fire for using tax dollars to put out campaign advertising -- Mandel's done the same thing in his Senate campaign.

I figured this would be about the absentee voting literature, where his name is visible from the space station.

Heh. I'm not sure what Brunner and past Secretaries of State did, but Husted's used the powers of office pretty egregiously in the pursuit of building name ID.

I agree 100% although even I have to admit that I was pleasantly surprised by how well he handled the SB5 stuff and I do think that he'd be someone who Democrats could work with if he's elected Governor.  I don't think that's true of DeWine and it's certainly not true of Renacci and Taylor (the latter of whom can't even be trusted to work with members of her own party in good faith).  

Husted is someone who I worry about as a potential Presidential candidate down the road, especially given his talent for simultaneously appealing to just about every major Republican faction, independents, and being seen as non-threatening/relatively inoffensive to Democrats without coming across as an insincere panderer.  If Toomey is re-elected in 2022 (and that's a really big "if"), a Husted/Toomey ticket or a Husted/Sasse ticket could be really strong in 2024, especially if Trump loses re-election in 2020 (depending upon the political environment, of course).  I mention Sasse and Toomey because they both overlap a bit with Husted's brand of coming across as a friendly Smiley Smiley ReasonableGuy Smiley Smiley who "sounds like a moderate" despite being pretty right-wing (Sasse and Toomey are probably even more right-wing than Husted, but Sasse in particular always makes a point of not using the typical right-wing speaking style).  Alternatively, Husted could also be a strong VP pick (that might actually be more likely come to think of it), especially if Sherrod Brown is on the Democratic ticket).

I dunno. Husted's no Voinovich. And I think -- hope -- his image with Democrats has been tarnished by now. We'll see if his run at being all things to all Republicans can be maintained, but he really leaned into Trumpism with his announcement.

That said, while Democratic buckeyes on the forum seem to fear his nomination, I've not met any IRL who think he's going to do more than damage DeWine.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #1063 on: November 19, 2017, 10:59:55 PM »

Let's not act like Clinton lost because of poor ground game. The Trump campaign's was virtually nonexistent and disorganized.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1064 on: November 19, 2017, 11:43:52 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2017, 11:46:24 PM by Cucks Against Cordray »

Let's not act like Clinton lost because of poor ground game. The Trump campaign's was virtually nonexistent and disorganized.

Clinton may not have lost Ohio specifically on the ground game, but Clinton basically gave up on us by August. Had Clinton replicated Obama's 2012 effort, would she have won? No. Would she have done better? Yes. Would that have boosted the down-ticket? Yes.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #1065 on: November 20, 2017, 09:46:45 AM »


This is really a stretch, This is nothing like what mandel did. Their claim is husted's twitter is retweeting videos created by his office, videos I'd argue almost everyone in state office does in one way or another.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #1066 on: November 20, 2017, 09:49:49 AM »

Vox just ran an article about Clinton's lack of field. The relevance?

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Anyone who thinks Clinton didn't triage Ohio by August is kidding themselves. The good news here is Democrats can still win here with a proper investment.

]Husted under fire for using tax dollars to put out campaign advertising -- Mandel's done the same thing in his Senate campaign.

I figured this would be about the absentee voting literature, where his name is visible from the space station.

Heh. I'm not sure what Brunner and past Secretaries of State did, but Husted's used the powers of office pretty egregiously in the pursuit of building name ID.

I agree 100% although even I have to admit that I was pleasantly surprised by how well he handled the SB5 stuff and I do think that he'd be someone who Democrats could work with if he's elected Governor.  I don't think that's true of DeWine and it's certainly not true of Renacci and Taylor (the latter of whom can't even be trusted to work with members of her own party in good faith).  

Husted is someone who I worry about as a potential Presidential candidate down the road, especially given his talent for simultaneously appealing to just about every major Republican faction, independents, and being seen as non-threatening/relatively inoffensive to Democrats without coming across as an insincere panderer.  If Toomey is re-elected in 2022 (and that's a really big "if"), a Husted/Toomey ticket or a Husted/Sasse ticket could be really strong in 2024, especially if Trump loses re-election in 2020 (depending upon the political environment, of course).  I mention Sasse and Toomey because they both overlap a bit with Husted's brand of coming across as a friendly Smiley Smiley ReasonableGuy Smiley Smiley who "sounds like a moderate" despite being pretty right-wing (Sasse and Toomey are probably even more right-wing than Husted, but Sasse in particular always makes a point of not using the typical right-wing speaking style).  Alternatively, Husted could also be a strong VP pick (that might actually be more likely come to think of it), especially if Sherrod Brown is on the Democratic ticket).

I dunno. Husted's no Voinovich. And I think -- hope -- his image with Democrats has been tarnished by now. We'll see if his run at being all things to all Republicans can be maintained, but he really leaned into Trumpism with his announcement.

That said, while Democratic buckeyes on the forum seem to fear his nomination, I've not met any IRL who think he's going to do more than damage DeWine.

I don't know where you live, but Husted seems to be the pick among most republicans I talk to in my neck of the woods. I have a feeling outside of NEO and the immediate columbus area husted is stronger than Dewine.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1067 on: November 20, 2017, 10:42:34 AM »

Vox just ran an article about Clinton's lack of field. The relevance?

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Anyone who thinks Clinton didn't triage Ohio by August is kidding themselves. The good news here is Democrats can still win here with a proper investment.

]Husted under fire for using tax dollars to put out campaign advertising -- Mandel's done the same thing in his Senate campaign.

I figured this would be about the absentee voting literature, where his name is visible from the space station.

Heh. I'm not sure what Brunner and past Secretaries of State did, but Husted's used the powers of office pretty egregiously in the pursuit of building name ID.

I agree 100% although even I have to admit that I was pleasantly surprised by how well he handled the SB5 stuff and I do think that he'd be someone who Democrats could work with if he's elected Governor.  I don't think that's true of DeWine and it's certainly not true of Renacci and Taylor (the latter of whom can't even be trusted to work with members of her own party in good faith).  

Husted is someone who I worry about as a potential Presidential candidate down the road, especially given his talent for simultaneously appealing to just about every major Republican faction, independents, and being seen as non-threatening/relatively inoffensive to Democrats without coming across as an insincere panderer.  If Toomey is re-elected in 2022 (and that's a really big "if"), a Husted/Toomey ticket or a Husted/Sasse ticket could be really strong in 2024, especially if Trump loses re-election in 2020 (depending upon the political environment, of course).  I mention Sasse and Toomey because they both overlap a bit with Husted's brand of coming across as a friendly Smiley Smiley ReasonableGuy Smiley Smiley who "sounds like a moderate" despite being pretty right-wing (Sasse and Toomey are probably even more right-wing than Husted, but Sasse in particular always makes a point of not using the typical right-wing speaking style).  Alternatively, Husted could also be a strong VP pick (that might actually be more likely come to think of it), especially if Sherrod Brown is on the Democratic ticket).

I dunno. Husted's no Voinovich. And I think -- hope -- his image with Democrats has been tarnished by now. We'll see if his run at being all things to all Republicans can be maintained, but he really leaned into Trumpism with his announcement.

That said, while Democratic buckeyes on the forum seem to fear his nomination, I've not met any IRL who think he's going to do more than damage DeWine.

I don't know where you live, but Husted seems to be the pick among most republicans I talk to in my neck of the woods. I have a feeling outside of NEO and the immediate columbus area husted is stronger than Dewine.

Without going into too much detail, again, I'm central.

I'm also usually talking to other Dems, so their take on the Republican primary is to be taken with a grain of salt. Though they've been around the block.
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #1068 on: November 20, 2017, 10:44:38 AM »

Let's not act like Clinton lost because of poor ground game. The Trump campaign's was virtually nonexistent and disorganized.

If so, it was made up for by individual groups.

I went to a Clinton speech in Youngstown, and outside the entrance there were a whole bunch of Trump people with signs giving out free buttons. Clinton was over four hours late (didn't leave Pittsburgh until after the event was supposed to start), so I left early and went to chat with them. They were being polite and not really harassing people, and were actively trying to talk to people. We had a nice chat about immigrants not learning English and they gave me four Trump buttons, which I still have.

I know it's anecdotal, but if that's not ground game I don't know what is.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #1069 on: November 20, 2017, 12:52:32 PM »

Vox just ran an article about Clinton's lack of field. The relevance?

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Anyone who thinks Clinton didn't triage Ohio by August is kidding themselves. The good news here is Democrats can still win here with a proper investment.

]Husted under fire for using tax dollars to put out campaign advertising -- Mandel's done the same thing in his Senate campaign.

I figured this would be about the absentee voting literature, where his name is visible from the space station.

Heh. I'm not sure what Brunner and past Secretaries of State did, but Husted's used the powers of office pretty egregiously in the pursuit of building name ID.

I agree 100% although even I have to admit that I was pleasantly surprised by how well he handled the SB5 stuff and I do think that he'd be someone who Democrats could work with if he's elected Governor.  I don't think that's true of DeWine and it's certainly not true of Renacci and Taylor (the latter of whom can't even be trusted to work with members of her own party in good faith).  

Husted is someone who I worry about as a potential Presidential candidate down the road, especially given his talent for simultaneously appealing to just about every major Republican faction, independents, and being seen as non-threatening/relatively inoffensive to Democrats without coming across as an insincere panderer.  If Toomey is re-elected in 2022 (and that's a really big "if"), a Husted/Toomey ticket or a Husted/Sasse ticket could be really strong in 2024, especially if Trump loses re-election in 2020 (depending upon the political environment, of course).  I mention Sasse and Toomey because they both overlap a bit with Husted's brand of coming across as a friendly Smiley Smiley ReasonableGuy Smiley Smiley who "sounds like a moderate" despite being pretty right-wing (Sasse and Toomey are probably even more right-wing than Husted, but Sasse in particular always makes a point of not using the typical right-wing speaking style).  Alternatively, Husted could also be a strong VP pick (that might actually be more likely come to think of it), especially if Sherrod Brown is on the Democratic ticket).

I dunno. Husted's no Voinovich. And I think -- hope -- his image with Democrats has been tarnished by now. We'll see if his run at being all things to all Republicans can be maintained, but he really leaned into Trumpism with his announcement.

That said, while Democratic buckeyes on the forum seem to fear his nomination, I've not met any IRL who think he's going to do more than damage DeWine.

I don't know where you live, but Husted seems to be the pick among most republicans I talk to in my neck of the woods. I have a feeling outside of NEO and the immediate columbus area husted is stronger than Dewine.

Without going into too much detail, again, I'm central.

I'm also usually talking to other Dems, so their take on the Republican primary is to be taken with a grain of salt. Though they've been around the block.

part of this may be the fact that Dems would much prefer Dewine to Husted right now, and I dont blame them.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1070 on: November 20, 2017, 09:42:09 PM »

It could be. But, on paper, it's hard to argue with +90% name recognition, and +60% approval rating. Husted's fundraising prowess is extraordinary, but we'll see.

Not like there's been much polling yet. Though if DeWine does win, it should be narrowly.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #1071 on: November 20, 2017, 10:33:39 PM »

It could be. But, on paper, it's hard to argue with +90% name recognition, and +60% approval rating. Husted's fundraising prowess is extraordinary, but we'll see.

Not like there's been much polling yet. Though if DeWine does win, it should be narrowly.

Its too early to talk about name ID and approval, Dewines made a lot of bad votes in republicans minds, no one has reminded people of them in the past, lets not forget he BARELY won in 2010 in a big republican year.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1072 on: November 21, 2017, 12:10:21 AM »

It could be. But, on paper, it's hard to argue with +90% name recognition, and +60% approval rating. Husted's fundraising prowess is extraordinary, but we'll see.

Not like there's been much polling yet. Though if DeWine does win, it should be narrowly.

Its too early to talk about name ID and approval, Dewines made a lot of bad votes in republicans minds, no one has reminded people of them in the past, lets not forget he BARELY won in 2010 in a big republican year.

DeWine shouldn't be talking about his votes, anyway. He should be talking about his work as AG. But you have a point.

2010 was weird, and a better year for Democrats at the top of the ticket than people realize. Strickland only lost by 2%. That said, Cordray would have lost by much more than 1% if it there weren't a Constitutional and a Libertarian candidate in the AG's race.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #1073 on: November 21, 2017, 01:06:12 AM »

It could be. But, on paper, it's hard to argue with +90% name recognition, and +60% approval rating. Husted's fundraising prowess is extraordinary, but we'll see.

Not like there's been much polling yet. Though if DeWine does win, it should be narrowly.

Its too early to talk about name ID and approval, Dewines made a lot of bad votes in republicans minds, no one has reminded people of them in the past, lets not forget he BARELY won in 2010 in a big republican year.

DeWine shouldn't be talking about his votes, anyway. He should be talking about his work as AG. But you have a point.

2010 was weird, and a better year for Democrats at the top of the ticket than people realize. Strickland only lost by 2%. That said, Cordray would have lost by much more than 1% if it there weren't a Constitutional and a Libertarian candidate in the AG's race.

DeWine wont be talking about his votes, but the other 3 candidates will be.

There's a reason there were a constitutional and libertarian candidate, DeWine was considered an anti-gun liberal.

Cordray and Strickland were buoyed by NRA endorsements as well.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1074 on: November 21, 2017, 01:17:20 PM »

It could be. But, on paper, it's hard to argue with +90% name recognition, and +60% approval rating. Husted's fundraising prowess is extraordinary, but we'll see.

Not like there's been much polling yet. Though if DeWine does win, it should be narrowly.

Its too early to talk about name ID and approval, Dewines made a lot of bad votes in republicans minds, no one has reminded people of them in the past, lets not forget he BARELY won in 2010 in a big republican year.

DeWine shouldn't be talking about his votes, anyway. He should be talking about his work as AG. But you have a point.

2010 was weird, and a better year for Democrats at the top of the ticket than people realize. Strickland only lost by 2%. That said, Cordray would have lost by much more than 1% if it there weren't a Constitutional and a Libertarian candidate in the AG's race.

DeWine wont be talking about his votes, but the other 3 candidates will be.

There's a reason there were a constitutional and libertarian candidate, DeWine was considered an anti-gun liberal.

Cordray and Strickland were buoyed by NRA endorsements as well.

Ah yes, the before times. When the NRA wasn't yet a solely partisan organization.

You can't tell me you think Cordray wouldn't have lost by a much larger margin were is a head-to-head election, can you?
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