OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For downballot offices, I suspect Frank LaRose, Steve Austria, and Mike Duffey will run.

Why would Steve Austria be a contender for anything?  He's a has-been that never was, at best.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So Jay Williams, Tim Ryan, and Joe Schiavoni all three come from Youngstown? Interesting...

Yes, though Williams has said if Ryan gets in, he won't.

If Ryan gets in, I could easily see Schiavoni just running for his House seat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State Representative Kathleen Clyde seems to be the only Democrat angling for this position. She'd pushed voting rights-related legislation during her tenure, and as the Representative of Kent, has made inroads with various college groups.

Please, no. She's pretty bad. Also, where do y'all think Mandel will end up?

Clyde seems pretty good to me.  Hopefully Mandel will end up in an unemployment line where he belongs (he's all-but-declared his candidacy for Senate).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State Representative Kathleen Clyde seems to be the only Democrat angling for this position. She'd pushed voting rights-related legislation during her tenure, and as the Representative of Kent, has made inroads with various college groups.

Please, no. She's pretty bad. Also, where do y'all think Mandel will end up?

Clyde seems pretty good to me.  Hopefully Mandel will end up in an unemployment line where he belongs (he's all-but-declared his candidacy for Senate).

Can we have Tiberi, please? Or Huffman? Or anyone but Mandel?

How about we just keep Sherrod Brown since he's easily one of the best Senators in the country

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State Representative Kathleen Clyde seems to be the only Democrat angling for this position. She'd pushed voting rights-related legislation during her tenure, and as the Representative of Kent, has made inroads with various college groups.

Please, no. She's pretty bad. Also, where do y'all think Mandel will end up?

Clyde seems pretty good to me.  Hopefully Mandel will end up in an unemployment line where he belongs (he's all-but-declared his candidacy for Senate).

Can we have Tiberi, please? Or Huffman? Or anyone but Mandel?

How about we just keep Sherrod Brown since he's easily one of the best Senators in the country

Yep. Brown has far and away the best voting record of any swing state senator, among other things.

Brown is terrible. He's one of these.

A fruit bat

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Internal GOP politics heating up. Trump Supporter and Stark County GOP Vice-Chair Kate Timken is challenging RPO Chairman Matt Borges.

Borges seems pretty competent, hopefully he loses!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

ROTFL at anyone who thinks Mandel could beat Brown.  I'm not even remotely worried about this one if Mandel is the Republican nominee.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Michael Coleman is the dark horse here if he runs I think he could be the favored to win of Ohio does hit a recession

Coleman's a has-been, 2006 was his last best shot and he couldn't even win the nomination.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I wonder if it would make more sense for Sherrod Brown to run for Governor than the Senate? He wouldn't be swimming against a partisan tide (or it would be much less of one), the Republican Party won't decide on a candidate until quite late in the game, and if he does win he'll be able to prevent a repeat of the disastrous 2010s House map and probably give Democrats 3-4 House seats plus a bunch of new legislative seats, allowing them to rebuild the Ohio bench. That seems like a much more attractive proposition to me than staying in an unending Senate minority, though perhaps I'm biased since I really want to see Mandel elected and would therefore prefer Brown run to be Governor.

Sherrod Brown is probably a Senate lifer unless he loses re-election.  From what I've heard, he really likes the job.  Plus, the Republicans have a much stronger bench in the Governor's race than in the Senate race.

I can see two different scenarios for the Ohio Gubernatorial race

1. DeWine and Husted battle it out, and their attacks to eachother get so nasty that a third candidate (either Taylor or Renacci at this point) rises in the polls and gets the nomination.

2. DeWine and Husted battle it out, but are so dominant that it forces the lower tier candidates (again, Taylor and Renacci) to run for something else. I suspect this is where Mandel's primary challenge in the Senate arises.

Honestly, if Renacci doesn't see an opening, I doubt he runs for a lower statewide office. Also, Taylor seems to be the favored candidate of Kasich, even if DeWine and Husted are bigger names.

Taylor also seems to be more moderate than DeWine and Husted.

Taylor is really right-wing, but she's so incompetent that she barely said anything after that hilariously inaccurate "report" about healthcare her office put out (even the Dispatch ridiculed her for it).  Husted is the most moderate or at least he used to be (he is the type of guy Democrats can sometimes work with).  He's certainly the only one with real cross-over appeal.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Ohio GOP is having their election for new chairman today. The new chairman will need 34 votes of the 66 member committee. Shockingly, Trump surrogate and Summit County GOP Vice-Chair Jane Timken is leading Kasich apostle Matt Borges 33-32. One of the Committee members is out sick, and Timken and Borges are now in the midst of negotiations. This is hugely shocking.

EDIT: Timken won. This is a coup against Kasich. This will have ramifications on the '18 primary. Would predict Husted to be the likely winner, now.

Husted joined the Trump-wing?  I thought he was better than that

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

O'Neill continues to stir up speculation about running for Governor. It would be a real shame to lose the only Democrat on the State Supreme Court, if he did run. Interestingly, leaders of the Run Nina Run group are also supportive of O'Neill.

He's too old to run for re-election to the court in 2018, so he'd only be losing a year if he resigns early. I'm not sure how far he'll go, though. His victory in 2012 felt more like a ballot name fluke than anything about his actual campaign, which only spent about $4,000.

Yeah, his whole thing is that he doesn't really do fundraising ("No money from nobody").  Cupp also ran an attack ad against O'Neill that really backfired in mid-October.  Decent guy, but statewide material O'Neill is not   Nina Turner is the absolute worst though, she's basically a wannabe Alan Grayson without the fundraising skills (she considered accepting a spot as a Jill Stein's runningmate). 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

O'Neill continues to stir up speculation about running for Governor. It would be a real shame to lose the only Democrat on the State Supreme Court, if he did run. Interestingly, leaders of the Run Nina Run group are also supportive of O'Neill.

He's too old to run for re-election to the court in 2018, so he'd only be losing a year if he resigns early. I'm not sure how far he'll go, though. His victory in 2012 felt more like a ballot name fluke than anything about his actual campaign, which only spent about $4,000.

Yeah, his whole thing is that he doesn't really do fundraising ("No money from nobody").  Cupp also ran an attack ad against O'Neill that really backfired in mid-October.  Decent guy, but statewide material O'Neill is not  Nina Turner is the absolute worst though, she's basically a wannabe Alan Grayson without the fundraising skills (she considered accepting a spot as a Jill Stein's runningmate).  

Slightly off-topic, but, as an Ohioan, do you think that Nina Turner has any future in higher office? I could see her winning Price's seat in the 11th once the seat vacates for whatever reason, but obviously, as an out-of-stater, I'm not really at the vantage point to make a definitive statement about her chances.

Not really, she could've carved a niche as a whackivist-type, but she burned her bridges by resigning from her ODP post to go shamelessly beg for attention campaign for Sanders, refusing to endorse Hillary, taking so long to turn down Jill Stein's VP offer, etc.  Plus she was never terribly popular to begin with beyond a small, but loud collection of whacktivists.  If she runs in the 11th, she'd probably get crushed even in a clown-car field (thankfully).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's quit likely her only real shot, which shows how much damage she's done to herself, considering the razor thin Ohio democrat bench.

Razor-thin is an exaggeration, but yeah, at this point almost no one in Ohio likes Nina Turner . O/c she was always an awful candidate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Eh, I wouldn't say it's too much of an exaggeration with so few state officials in the dem bench (some of them retreads). When serious statewide contenders are city and county officials that's a thin bench. Until some of the old folks (Tavares, Skindell, Sykes, Edna Brown, Cera, Ashford etc..) go, or a wave comes it's going to be an uphill climb.

We've got Cordrey, Joe Schiavoni, Tim Ryan, Lou Gentile, Dave Leland, Kathleen Clyde, Armond Budish, Connie Pillich, John Cranley, to name just a few.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Frank LaRose and Mike Duffey might run for statewide office. I would like to see one of them end up as a Governor or Senator eventually.

My OHGOP friends are telling me that LaRose for SecState is almost a done deal.

I told you that might happen here:

I would guess:

Governor: Mike DeWine
Lieutenant Governor: Frank LaRose
Secretary of State: Mike Duffey

Mandel is term limited out. LaRose and Duffey could switch positions. LaRose IIRC has introduced two election reform bills, while Duffey doesn't seem to have much of a record on election bills.

And I told y'all it might happen in the OP.

All kidding aside, I'm not sure what makes LaRose such a lock other than his great personal wealth.

He's not a lock, I think it's more that it's early and he's clearly interested in SoS.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I've heard it second hand from a reliable source than Kucinich is going to announce a Gubernatorial run within the next week. Not sure I by it, since I can't find it substantiated anywhere in speculation, but ... it's fun, so I thought I'd throw it out there.

oh god the terror

Don't worry, he'll get killed in the primary.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Auditor Dave Yost made his AG race official today. Rumors are Rep. Renacci will declare for governor within a month

Yost is probably the least known of the row officers, and the worst campaigner. Pillich got a little lucky with Mandel, given how hated he was, but John Patrick Carney put up a good fight in '14. Even if we lose the Governor's race, I'm hopeful we can take back the AG-post.

Yost was the least known, but no one the democrats have ID'd as a possibility is better known or even as known, throw in Yost's big cash on hand number he declared with, it will be an uphill battle. Democrats have better shot at Auditor and Treasurer where name ID and money will be a much level playing field.

If I were to rank the Ohio races(as of today) in order of likelihood of switching parties (from most to least likely) I'd go:
Auditor
Treasurer
Secretary of State
Attorney General
US Senate
Governor

Yost is better known now, but he's still not well known, by any means. Money's the bigger problem, but Dettelbach should be able to play the fundraising network well--he and Obama played basketball together at Harvard. Also, Auditor will be a much harder race to win, even with its low name ID/monetary expectations given Faber is likely running. But maybe he'll challenge Yost. Still too early to say.

Meanwhile, The Plain Dealer has taken an interesting look at the ramifications of Taylor's betrayal, and this year's Cleveland mayoral election could get ugly with the SEUI making its first ever endorsement in the race. Also, while with Gabbard in the Middle East, Kucinich met with Assad.

Dettelbach may not even be the candidate (I think it will be schiavoni who is the better one)

All the rumors I'm hearing is that Faber is not running for auditor as money players are trying to clear the GOP field for Mingo, and Faber may be angling for the speaker slot. Faber is also much lesser known than even Yost and won't have the money. With the thin bench on the D side I think AG and Governor are uphill battles, but treasurer and auditor are wide open. SOS is a different animal, if Alicia Reese or Kathleen Clyde face off against LaRose both will probably lose, against Pelanda they both could win.

Hold on, they can't really be stupid enough to run Mingo statewide, can they?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

As it said in the Dispatch, his intention to run was, "the worst-kept secret in Ohio politics."

It would be really dumb for Mingo to primary him.

So you're saying Mingo will go for it?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Based on White House statements about the CFPB, Richard Cordray might be back in Ohio sooner rather than later.

I wonder if he will get the support, he's easily the best D candidate not named Ryan, will progressives back him with his pro gun record?

While that proved to be a problem in this past Senate primary, Cordray never cut an ad on his sportsmanlike appreciation of gun culture and NRA rating; which Strickland did in 2010. That said, he might face backlash in Franklin County due to his tangential alliance with the Scott campaign for Mayor of Columbus.

Cordrey backed Zach Scott?  Gross. 

That's disappointing, to say the least!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Based on White House statements about the CFPB, Richard Cordray might be back in Ohio sooner rather than later.

I wonder if he will get the support, he's easily the best D candidate not named Ryan, will progressives back him with his pro gun record?

While that proved to be a problem in this past Senate primary, Cordray never cut an ad on his sportsmanlike appreciation of gun culture and NRA rating; which Strickland did in 2010. That said, he might face backlash in Franklin County due to his tangential alliance with the Scott campaign for Mayor of Columbus.

Cordrey backed Zach Scott?  Gross. 

That's disappointing, to say the least!

Cordray didn't back Scott, but they share infrastructure (also with Jennifer Brunner). The internal politics of the FCDP are an utter mess.

Believe me, I know.  I had a front-row seat to this mess back when I worked for the ODP.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

What would you rate that?

I think LaRose would ultimately win, but it could become the kind of primary that does some GE damage to whoever wins.  Btw, I really don't see Reece running for SoS, I've heard no talk about that and it'd be a pretty bad career move since (unlike Clyde) she has no chance of wining statewide and most Democrats know it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

What would you rate that?

I think LaRose would ultimately win, but it could become the kind of primary that does some GE damage to whoever wins.  Btw, I really don't see Reece running for SoS, I've heard no talk about that and it'd be a pretty bad career move since (unlike Clyde) she has no chance of wining statewide and most Democrats know it.

Clyde is far from some power house, as for her not being mentioned, she's been rumored to run for years for higher office. As for it being a bad career move, she's got nowhere else to run.
And media outlets have mentioned her:
http://wvxu.org/post/ohio-red-blue-or-purple-2018-election-will-decide#stream/0

http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/2016/07/27/Ohio-delegation-considers-its-options-for-state-offices-Party-officials-look-to-future-of-its-campaigns.html

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/07/for_ohio_democrats_the_2018_gu.html

Clyde is electable statewide, Reece isn't; I never said the former was a power house.  Reece may have nowhere else to run this cycle, but she's fine long-term if she sits one cycle out.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How likely is Nina Turner to run?

Anything is possible. She'd get absolutely smoked

She would. Far too left for the state, and isn't exactly an appealing public speaker, nor could she appeal to Obama-Trump voters or Brown-Kasich voters. OH Dems would be punting if they nominated her.

I'd vote for Husted over Turner in a second (I already did it in 2014).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How likely is Nina Turner to run?

Anything is possible. She'd get absolutely smoked

She would. Far too left for the state, and isn't exactly an appealing public speaker, nor could she appeal to Obama-Trump voters or Brown-Kasich voters. OH Dems would be punting if they nominated her.

I'd voted for Husted over Turner in a second (I already did it in 2014).

I'm a big Husted fan.

I'm not, but I feel like he's at least someone who Democrats can work with (or if not, he certainly was as Secretary of State).  Fortunately, the Democratic nominee will probably be Schiavoni whom I'd vote for over any of the Republicans running (including Husted).