OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Rjjr77]

Nina would have difficulty winning the 11th when Marcia fudge steps down. Mayor of Cleveland in a perfect storm maybe but nothing outside of her smalle region of influence.

[Rjjr77]

It's quite likely her only real shot, which shows how much damage she's done to herself, considering the razor thin Ohio democrat bench.

[Rjjr77]

Eh, I wouldn't say it's too much of an exaggeration with so few state officials in the dem bench (some of them retreads). When serious statewide contenders are city and county officials that's a thin bench. Until some of the old folks (Tavares, Skindell, Sykes, Edna Brown, Cera, Ashford etc..) go, or a wave comes it's going to be an uphill climb.

[Rjjr77]

Eh, I wouldn't say it's too much of an exaggeration with so few state officials in the dem bench (some of them retreads). When serious statewide contenders are city and county officials that's a thin bench. Until some of the old folks (Tavares, Skindell, Sykes, Edna Brown, Cera, Ashford etc..) go, or a wave comes it's going to be an uphill climb.

We've got Cordrey, Joe Schiavoni, Tim Ryan, Lou Gentile, Dave Leland, Kathleen Clyde, Armond Budish, Connie Pillich, John Cranley, to name just a few.

There are people, no doubt, but gentile just lost a state senate race, Cordray and Pillich have statewide losses. Schiavoni and Clyde are promising, but not well known outside of their districts (I think schiavoni has potential) Leland is also pretty lightly known elections wise for his age. Cranley and Budish are city and county officials, with Cranley's two congressional losses (one in a wave year). You fail to mention Bocceri who I'm confident the dems will run statewide in 18. I've also hear Alicia Reese's name being bandied about. There are people but it's a short bench.

[Rjjr77]

Turns out Mary Taylor made a secret endorsement of Timken in the final days before the chairman vote. What a snake in the grass. Kasich must be pissed.

Not that surprising, I think she's from Akron area and that chair endorsed Timken. Also mike Dewine had been looking like the Kasich/Borges candidate

[Rjjr77]

Yeah, there's no real "Kasich Candidate" anymore. Kasich and Husted have always been at odds, DeWine and Kasich haven't been that friendly, and now Kasich and Taylor are at odds. Pat Tiberi is maybe Kasich's only ally right now.

Dewine is clearly the Kasich candidate, and probably always has been. Follow the staffers, all the Kasich people are working for Dewine campaign.

[Rjjr77]

Is there any definitive statement or reason that would explain why Kasich himself isn't going to run for Senate?

Kasich can't win a GOP primary in Ohio at this point, and state funds don't carry over to federal funds so he'd have to declare tomorrow.

[Rjjr77]

Auditor Dave Yost made his AG race official today. Rumors are Rep. Renacci will declare for governor within a month

[Rjjr77]

Renacci vs. Kucinich would be the damnedest thing.

It would be interesting, Renacci is going to have a hard time with name ID in the primary, Dewine is still the odds on favorite but Renacci probably ends Taylor's chances. Husted still a very strong candidate as well.

Kucinich will have the name but the party will do everything in their power to promote a different democrat

[Rjjr77]

Auditor Dave Yost made his AG race official today. Rumors are Rep. Renacci will declare for governor within a month

Yost is probably the least known of the row officers, and the worst campaigner. Pillich got a little lucky with Mandel, given how hated he was, but John Patrick Carney put up a good fight in '14. Even if we lose the Governor's race, I'm hopeful we can take back the AG-post.
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Yost was the least known, but no one the democrats have ID'd as a possibility is better known or even as known, throw in Yost's big cash on hand number he declared with, it will be an uphill battle. Democrats have better shot at Auditor and Treasurer where name ID and money will be a much level playing field.

If I were to rank the Ohio races(as of today) in order of likelihood of switching parties (from most to least likely) I'd go:
Auditor
Treasurer
Secretary of State
Attorney General
US Senate
Governor

[Rjjr77]

Auditor Dave Yost made his AG race official today. Rumors are Rep. Renacci will declare for governor within a month

Yost is probably the least known of the row officers, and the worst campaigner. Pillich got a little lucky with Mandel, given how hated he was, but John Patrick Carney put up a good fight in '14. Even if we lose the Governor's race, I'm hopeful we can take back the AG-post.

Yost was the least known, but no one the democrats have ID'd as a possibility is better known or even as known, throw in Yost's big cash on hand number he declared with, it will be an uphill battle. Democrats have better shot at Auditor and Treasurer where name ID and money will be a much level playing field.

If I were to rank the Ohio races(as of today) in order of likelihood of switching parties (from most to least likely) I'd go:
Auditor
Treasurer
Secretary of State
Attorney General
US Senate
Governor

Yost is better known now, but he's still not well known, by any means. Money's the bigger problem, but Dettelbach should be able to play the fundraising network well--he and Obama played basketball together at Harvard. Also, Auditor will be a much harder race to win, even with its low name ID/monetary expectations given Faber is likely running. But maybe he'll challenge Yost. Still too early to say.

Meanwhile, The Plain Dealer has taken an interesting look at the ramifications of Taylor's betrayal, and this year's Cleveland mayoral election could get ugly with the SEUI making its first ever endorsement in the race. Also, while with Gabbard in the Middle East, Kucinich met with Assad.

Dettelbach may not even be the candidate (I think it will be schiavoni who is the better one)

All the rumors I'm hearing is that Faber is not running for auditor as money players are trying to clear the GOP field for Mingo, and Faber may be angling for the speaker slot. Faber is also much lesser known than even Yost and won't have the money. With the thin bench on the D side I think AG and Governor are uphill battles, but treasurer and auditor are wide open. SOS is a different animal, if Alicia Reese or Kathleen Clyde face off against LaRose both will probably lose, against Pelanda they both could win.

[Rjjr77]

Auditor Dave Yost made his AG race official today. Rumors are Rep. Renacci will declare for governor within a month

Yost is probably the least known of the row officers, and the worst campaigner. Pillich got a little lucky with Mandel, given how hated he was, but John Patrick Carney put up a good fight in '14. Even if we lose the Governor's race, I'm hopeful we can take back the AG-post.

Yost was the least known, but no one the democrats have ID'd as a possibility is better known or even as known, throw in Yost's big cash on hand number he declared with, it will be an uphill battle. Democrats have better shot at Auditor and Treasurer where name ID and money will be a much level playing field.

If I were to rank the Ohio races(as of today) in order of likelihood of switching parties (from most to least likely) I'd go:
Auditor
Treasurer
Secretary of State
Attorney General
US Senate
Governor

Yost is better known now, but he's still not well known, by any means. Money's the bigger problem, but Dettelbach should be able to play the fundraising network well--he and Obama played basketball together at Harvard. Also, Auditor will be a much harder race to win, even with its low name ID/monetary expectations given Faber is likely running. But maybe he'll challenge Yost. Still too early to say.

Meanwhile, The Plain Dealer has taken an interesting look at the ramifications of Taylor's betrayal, and this year's Cleveland mayoral election could get ugly with the SEUI making its first ever endorsement in the race. Also, while with Gabbard in the Middle East, Kucinich met with Assad.

Dettelbach may not even be the candidate (I think it will be schiavoni who is the better one)

All the rumors I'm hearing is that Faber is not running for auditor as money players are trying to clear the GOP field for Mingo, and Faber may be angling for the speaker slot. Faber is also much lesser known than even Yost and won't have the money. With the thin bench on the D side I think AG and Governor are uphill battles, but treasurer and auditor are wide open. SOS is a different animal, if Alicia Reese or Kathleen Clyde face off against LaRose both will probably lose, against Pelanda they both could win.

Most everything is speculative at this point, but being the first one in will be a boon. It's hard to read Ryan, but at this point, I doubt he'll actually jump in. His action in challenging Pelosi shows some fire has been lit under him, but he's always on the fence about running for higher office. At this juncture, early as it is, I find it likely he's gunning for high House leadership in the future, and Schiavoni will actually wind up running for Governor.

Mingo could make a run for Auditor, I suppose, but he's only one of the two county-wide Republicans down in Franklin County, and the OHGOP might be reluctant to give that up. That said, Speaker Rosenberger will be term-limited out of the State House in '19 (at the tender age of 38, no less), so Faber certainly has the option.

If Schiavoni is the gubernatorial candidate that's a lost opportunity for the dems. He's got a real shot as a statewide, but running against any of the republicans will make life very difficult for him, and that'd be possibly crippling a rising star.

I think Mingo is wanting to move up, I don't think the OHGOP cares that much about any Franklin county race that isn't prosecutor.

[Rjjr77]

After seeing him on real time I think Tim Ryan should of replaced Nancy. He would make a great dem nom

He's rumored for higher office every year, and never runs

[Rjjr77]

Schiavoni, in an interview with the Youngstown Vindcator clarified the only statewide position he wants is Governor, although he also said he would run for Ryan's seat if he ran.

Further indication, I think, that Schiavoni announced so early. It puts pressure on Ryan to get off the pot.

That's an interesting strategy, he'll probably have a tough fight for governor. He'd walk through that house seat with how d it is.

[Rjjr77]

A new poll shows AG Mike DeWine leading in a 4-way primary against Lt. Gov Taylor, SOS Husted, and Rep. Renacci.

DeWine 47%; Husted 18%; Taylor 10%; Renacci 4%. 22% undecided. In a two-way, DeWine leads Husted 55%-45%.

As for name recognition, DeWine has 95% name recognition, why 33% of respondents didn't know Husted, 57% didn't know Taylor, and 71% didn't know Renacci. They also tested some non-Gubernatorial contenders. 81% of respondents didn't know former Senate President Faber is, 86% didn't know Speaker Rosenberger, and 54% don't know Yost, either.

Big boost for Husted, the favorables will drop for Dewine as the campaign starts, to see Husted with 66% name id is big. Taylor's name id is disappointing

[Rjjr77]

Faber announces he is running for Auditor

[Rjjr77]

As it said in the Dispatch, his intention to run was, "the worst-kept secret in Ohio politics."

It would be really dumb for Mingo to primary him.

There was a lot of talk about him not running for auditor and angling for speaker, he's not particularly well liked. As for Mingo primarying him... Is it dumb? Will Faber be able to raise any money without the senate presidency?

[Rjjr77]

How would Cordray do in a Guberntorial Race? Trump and his minions will most likely try to get rid of or severely weaken the CFPB. Would Ryan be stronger than him or would they be roughly equal?

I think Ryan is stronger, he doesn't have statewide losses on his record. Cordray is very good on guns for a D and that will help him in a general. Cordray has also been out of the eye for a while and many have probably forgotten him. Plus there's some stories going around that he's deleted emails at CFPB

[Rjjr77]

As it said in the Dispatch, his intention to run was, "the worst-kept secret in Ohio politics."

It would be really dumb for Mingo to primary him.

There was a lot of talk about him not running for auditor and angling for speaker, he's not particularly well liked. As for Mingo primarying him... Is it dumb? Will Faber be able to raise any money without the senate presidency?

Faber certainly has more statewide contacts from his time as Senate President, so, probably.

Speaking of money, both DeWine and Husted have $2.5 million in the bank, as of the latest filing. Interestingly, Husted had a mere $900 more than DeWine, even though DeWine voluntarily reported half a million dollars raised in January. Taylor, meanwhile, has a little under $1 million in the bank.

Democratic fundraising for potential gubernatorial candidates is comparatively pitiful. Schiavoni has ~$40,000 in the bank, while Connie Pillich is sitting on $425,000; only half of which was raised this year.

As for the down-ballot candidates, Yost has $1 million in the bank, while Dettelbach has $250,000; all of which it seems he raised since November. Faber has $600,000 in the bank.

Husted beating Dewine by 500,000 dollars last quarter is definitely news. Dewine reported January numbers because to make himself closer

[Rjjr77]

Because they've traditionally fit the Kasich model?

ION: While she has to seek re-election this year, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley has expressed serious interest in running for Governor.

Interesting, don't think she's a great candidate for governor though

[Rjjr77]

Based on White House statements about the CFPB, Richard Cordray might be back in Ohio sooner rather than later.

I wonder if he will get the support, he's easily the best D candidate not named Ryan, will progressives back him with his pro gun record?

[Rjjr77]

Either Cordray or Ryan would be good, although I prefer Ryan because Cordray will be pretty rusty having not have run for office since 2010. We have seen from Feingold, Strickland, Jeb etc. the perils of running rusty pols.

One could make an argument that Tim Ryan hasn't had to run for office in even longer with his district

[Rjjr77]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

I expect it will. The D side could get very ugly as well with Alicia Reese and Kathleen Clyde

[Rjjr77]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

I expect it will. The D side could get very ugly as well with Alicia Reese and Kathleen Clyde

I'm still somewhat skeptical Reece will actually jump in.

I'm a bit skeptical too, but she's got no where else to go

[Rjjr77]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

I expect it will. The D side could get very ugly as well with Alicia Reese and Kathleen Clyde

I'm still somewhat skeptical Reece will actually jump in.

I'm a bit skeptical too, but she's got no where else to go.

State Senate might be an option, and she could always return to Cincinnati City Politics. Previously, Reece did serve as Vice Mayor

Cecil Thomas is on his first term. Reece isn't going to step down for the mess that is Cincy local politics. She could go back anyway since local elections would be during '19. If she's ever going to run now is her time and Clyde is not a powerhouse.