OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Ohioguy29]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

Is Democratic control of the Ohio House even remotely in the cards?

It is possible. I count 15 winnable House seats and another 10 Very-Unlikely-But-Not-Impossible-Seats. A 15 seat flip takes us from 33 D, 66 R to 48 D, 51 R. A very unlikely but not impossible 25 seat flip would be 58 D, 41 R.

Which seats have you identified as winnable and unlikely-but-not-impossible? I have my own ideas, I'd like to see how your compare.

[Ohioguy29]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

Is Democratic control of the Ohio House even remotely in the cards?

It is possible. I count 15 winnable House seats and another 10 Very-Unlikely-But-Not-Impossible-Seats. A 15 seat flip takes us from 33 D, 66 R to 48 D, 51 R. A very unlikely but not impossible 25 seat flip would be 58 D, 41 R.

Which seats have you identified as winnable and unlikely-but-not-impossible? I have my own ideas, I'd like to see how your compare.

Uh, let's see...

OH-41
OH-42
OH-48
OH-61
OH-67
OH-71
OH-73
OH-90
OH-96

That's 9. I must have miscounted earlier or forgotten one...

And what are the 15 winnable ones? Also we already have OH-96; that's Jack Cera's seat. Perhaps you're thinking of OH-95, the one Dan Milleson is running for.

[Ohioguy29]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

Is Democratic control of the Ohio House even remotely in the cards?

It is possible. I count 15 winnable House seats and another 10 Very-Unlikely-But-Not-Impossible-Seats. A 15 seat flip takes us from 33 D, 66 R to 48 D, 51 R. A very unlikely but not impossible 25 seat flip would be 58 D, 41 R.

Which seats have you identified as winnable and unlikely-but-not-impossible? I have my own ideas, I'd like to see how your compare.

Uh, let's see...

OH-41
OH-42
OH-48
OH-61
OH-67
OH-71
OH-73
OH-90
OH-96

That's 9. I must have miscounted earlier or forgotten one...

And what are the 15 winnable ones? Also we already have OH-96; that's Jack Cera's seat. Perhaps you're thinking of OH-95, the one Dan Milleson is running for.

I actually meant the 98th. But my math was using an older set of rankings that I updated recently and then forgot about.

I think there are 24 winnable Lean D to (presently) Likely R seats, and then 9 Very Likely R seats on top of that. The Very Likely R seats are more likely to become Safe R than Likely R, but I don't think they can be entirely ruled out. Those 24 seats Likely R to Lean D seats are:

OH-03
OH-05
OH-06
OH-07
OH-19
OH-21
OH-23
OH-24
OH-27
OH-28
OH-36
OH-37
OH-38
OH-50
OH-16
OH-40
OH-43
OH-55
OH-79
OH-88
OH-89
OH-92

And the previously mentioned OH-95.

So I guess in a truly massive wave, we could go from 33 D, 66 R to 64 D, 35 R. But I'd be speechless if that happened. What're your thoughts?

Good list, you're looking at a lot of the same districts I'm looking at. I agree that 95 belongs here and not the other list. You accidentally left out 94 (Sappington vs. Edwards.) I also question why you put 90 on the "longshot" list while at the same time including districts like 50 on this one. But altogether you clearly know your stuff. You even have noticed some of the "quite red, but with an exceptional candidate" districts like 71.

[Ohioguy29]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

Is Democratic control of the Ohio House even remotely in the cards?

It is possible. I count 15 winnable House seats and another 10 Very-Unlikely-But-Not-Impossible-Seats. A 15 seat flip takes us from 33 D, 66 R to 48 D, 51 R. A very unlikely but not impossible 25 seat flip would be 58 D, 41 R.

Which seats have you identified as winnable and unlikely-but-not-impossible? I have my own ideas, I'd like to see how your compare.

Uh, let's see...

OH-41
OH-42
OH-48
OH-61
OH-67
OH-71
OH-73
OH-90
OH-96

That's 9. I must have miscounted earlier or forgotten one...

And what are the 15 winnable ones? Also we already have OH-96; that's Jack Cera's seat. Perhaps you're thinking of OH-95, the one Dan Milleson is running for.

I actually meant the 98th. But my math was using an older set of rankings that I updated recently and then forgot about.

I think there are 24 winnable Lean D to (presently) Likely R seats, and then 9 Very Likely R seats on top of that. The Very Likely R seats are more likely to become Safe R than Likely R, but I don't think they can be entirely ruled out. Those 24 seats Likely R to Lean D seats are:

OH-03
OH-05
OH-06
OH-07
OH-19
OH-21
OH-23
OH-24
OH-27
OH-28
OH-36
OH-37
OH-38
OH-50
OH-16
OH-40
OH-43
OH-55
OH-79
OH-88
OH-89
OH-92

And the previously mentioned OH-95.

So I guess in a truly massive wave, we could go from 33 D, 66 R to 64 D, 35 R. But I'd be speechless if that happened. What're your thoughts?

Good list, you're looking at a lot of the same districts I'm looking at. I agree that 95 belongs here and not the other list. You accidentally left out 94 (Sappington vs. Edwards.) I also question why you put 90 on the "longshot" list while at the same time including districts like 50 on this one. But altogether you clearly know your stuff. You even have noticed some of the "quite red, but with an exceptional candidate" districts like 71.

Derp. I did forget the 94th. That is definitely on my list.

My rankings accounted for several variables: whether the seat was open, Democratic Performance Index, the last time it went for a Democrat during the Presidential election, and candidate viability.

71 is interesting. We should get an idea of what OHDC is targetting soon. I hope they don't go all in Romney-Clinton in the various suburbs. There are still some great opportunities with good candidates in Obama-Trump districts.

Not that 71 went for either Obama or Clinton, but I think they have a good candidate running, and I'm assuming Cordray gets the nod. Cordray's strength in the Franklin County ring counties at the top of the ticket, plus the midterm environment, plus their strong #resistance movement could be the perfect storm for Jeremy Blake.

It's not like I have deeply specific ideas on the likelihood of most flips. I mostly go for a binary flippable/unflippable look at things.

I really hope they don't go for suburbs either. We can't win on Romney-Clinton alone, especially not in Ohio! And considering how open to Democrats a lot of Trump country is, it would be stupid to not focus on those seats. I also, on a personal level, don't want a party that's centered around bougie suburbanites.

I'm watching Jeremy Blake's campaign with great interest. What do you think of district 2? Definitely unlikely, but it's also in central Ohio and Lane Winters intrigues me regardless of his chances.

[Ohioguy29]

(Snipping the backlog so the quote-chain doesn't get too long.)

I have a fairly developed system that goes from Very Likely R to Lean D. 2 Lean D, 4 Tossups, 8 Lean R, 10 Likely R, and 9 Very Likely R.

Like you, I don't want a suburban strategy, we're definitely going for those Clinton-Romney seats. By my metric, 16 of the 33 winnable seats are wholly or partially in Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, and Summit Counties alone: 2 of 9 Very Likely R, 5 of 10 Likely R, 5 of 8 Lean R and all 4 Tossups. (Interestingly, the two Lean D seats are both rural.) The real question is: how will OHDC allocate resources? As I said earlier, hopefully, we'll know soon.

I sadly think OH-02 is Safe R. If it was open this year, I think it could go into the (Very) Likely R category. Sherrod was able to carry his old stomping grounds back in '06, but I don't think he'll be doing that again this year. Winters seems like a decent candidate, though. Assuming he fails, he could be a good future candidate for more local office. We really need to start cutting into these all Republican County Commissions.

Let me rephrase, I don't want us to focus almost entirely on suburban seats. It would be insane to ignore the Romney-Clinton seats in the suburbs though (not that all suburban districts moved towards Clinton, as I'm sure you know, especially in northeast Ohio.)

What are your two lean D seats? I'm not surprised they're rural; there's plenty of blue/purple/ancestral Dem rural areas in Ohio.

We definitely do need to win more seats in local government. In Hamilton County it looks like there's a good chance of getting rid of Chris Monzel, which is important considering the Todd Portune retirement rumors.

[Ohioguy29]

(Snipping the backlog so the quote-chain doesn't get too long.)

I have a fairly developed system that goes from Very Likely R to Lean D. 2 Lean D, 4 Tossups, 8 Lean R, 10 Likely R, and 9 Very Likely R.

Like you, I don't want a suburban strategy, we're definitely going for those Clinton-Romney seats. By my metric, 16 of the 33 winnable seats are wholly or partially in Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, and Summit Counties alone: 2 of 9 Very Likely R, 5 of 10 Likely R, 5 of 8 Lean R and all 4 Tossups. (Interestingly, the two Lean D seats are both rural.) The real question is: how will OHDC allocate resources? As I said earlier, hopefully, we'll know soon.

I sadly think OH-02 is Safe R. If it was open this year, I think it could go into the (Very) Likely R category. Sherrod was able to carry his old stomping grounds back in '06, but I don't think he'll be doing that again this year. Winters seems like a decent candidate, though. Assuming he fails, he could be a good future candidate for more local office. We really need to start cutting into these all Republican County Commissions.

Let me rephrase, I don't want us to focus almost entirely on suburban seats. It would be insane to ignore the Romney-Clinton seats in the suburbs though (not that all suburban districts moved towards Clinton, as I'm sure you know, especially in northeast Ohio.)

What are your two lean D seats? I'm not surprised they're rural; there's plenty of blue/purple/ancestral Dem rural areas in Ohio.

We definitely do need to win more seats in local government. In Hamilton County it looks like there's a good chance of getting rid of Chris Monzel, which is important considering the Todd Portune retirement rumors.

OH-94 and OH-89. Feel more confident about the 89th than the 94th for now. I look forward to the next fundraising report that should come in May. Could seriously alter my rankings.

Pillich seems likey to take on Commissioner if and when Portune leaves, IMO.

Those are what I have as my two most likely flips too, with 89 being the most likely. Joe Helle is an impressive candidate; I was impressed even before he got twitter famous by confronting Husted.

I wish Pillich had run in 28 this year. That's a district that looks like it should be easy to win on paper, but people really like Dever. And Jessica Miranda lost to him by 18 points in 2016. Still one of our better targets, but not as good as it would be with Pillich.

[Ohioguy29]

I honestly wasn't too hot on Helle for a while since he seemed unnecessarily conservative, but I'm hearing good things from people who know better. And yeah. Pillich would have been great to return to the State House, but I can't fault her for running for Governor.

--

ION: Statewide candidates had to make personal ethics disclosures today. Nothing particularly juice I could find. Everyone seems to owe someone at least $1,000.

There is a pun in there somewhere but I am not clever enough to think of it.

He is really is hot as Helle: (was going to link to a pic here but I don't have enough posts to do that yet.) I'd also like to note that he's just as fond as terrible puns as I am. His campaign slogan is "give 'em Helle," and he also likes to say "Arndt sure about Steve?" (his opponent is Steve Arndt.) This is why I like him.

[Ohioguy29]

I honestly wasn't too hot on Helle for a while since he seemed unnecessarily conservative, but I'm hearing good things from people who know better. And yeah. Pillich would have been great to return to the State House, but I can't fault her for running for Governor.

He never struck me as particularly conservative, he just has that "regular white guy" vibe. Then again, I am not all that liberal myself, so this was never a concern of mine.

I don't fault Pillich for running for governor, but she dropped out right after the filing deadline. She could've dropped out just a week or two earlier and been able to run for something else. Oh well.

[Ohioguy29]

Update: Speaker Rosenberger is resigning immediately rather than at the end of the month as originally planned.

[Ohioguy29]

DeWine is trying to slap Taylor with a C&D over an ad she’s running where she claims DeWine voted with Hillary and Obama in the Senate and that he supports drivers licenses for illegal immigrants.

This seems like it'll just backfire on him and bring more attention to his voting record in the Senate. But ok, Mike, carry on!

[Ohioguy29]

Excerpt from Ohio Matter podcast on Cliff Rosenberger resignation:

"In the legislative races, where you think this would have the biggest impact, the Democrats I talked to are saying, "look we had a plan going in for how to win, and we're not gonna...it's too late to change our plan now." "I wouldn't be surprised if this is not a huge factor in a lot of these legislative races...I don't see the Democrats, at least on the legislative level, using this as much."

Why? Seriously, how stupid can you be?

[Ohioguy29]

This sounds juicy. If only there was video.

[Ohioguy29]

Kucinichmentum.

Just doesn't work as well as Joementum.

[Ohioguy29]

Moms Demand Action has given Cordray the "gun sense candidate" distinction. Don't really understand why, if I'm being honest, but hopefully that helps him in the primary.

[Ohioguy29]

On its surface that would appear to be a pretty good map for a Democrat. Tough to analyze on its face where cordray went wrong, even acknowledging that it was a razor tight race. Completely bombed in the Southwest outside Cincy and Dayton perhaps?

That's typical in Southwest, especially back then (Hamilton County is bluer than it used to be.) Southwest is the most Republican region of Ohio.

[Ohioguy29]

Update on the Rick Perales scandal. These texts indicate that he was planning to meet up with her in person, which contradicts his claim that the affair was texting only. Then again, they may have not followed through on the plans, so he could be telling the truth.

[Ohioguy29]

So the New York Times did an article on the race, with the Washington Post doing a more generic one of the gubernatorial races. The Washington Post article was uh... really surprising with a specific quote from the article I'm going to share:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wowwwwww. This is the kinda thing that could sway a lot of young progressives away from him (not all kinds, just some kinds.) If I knew any Kucinich supporters down here this could be a useful quote. But I don't know any; if he wins it won't be thanks to us.

[Ohioguy29]

In Cincinnati, even relatives of Parkland survivors prefer Cordray to Kucinich. Her argument is basically that Kucinich can't win and that you're delusional if you think we're getting an AWB in Ohio. Which is accurate. She says Kucinich is "promising something he can't deliver" and that "people will die while we wait for that ban." Ouch! She also says "I live in the real world" on multiple occasions.

[Ohioguy29]

In Cincinnati, even relatives of Parkland survivors prefer Cordray to Kucinich. Her argument is basically that Kucinich can't win and that you're delusional if you think we're getting an AWB in Ohio. Which is accurate. She says Kucinich is "promising something he can't deliver" and that "people will die while we wait for that ban." Ouch! She also says "I live in the real world" on multiple occasions.

I appreciate that pragmatism, in the Democratic Party, isn't dead after all.

I find that Democrats in this area are among the most pragmatic I've ever seen and we're very skeptical of grand promises. Idealism died here a long time ago if it ever even existed in the first place. Kucinich is also just broadly hated here, even among Bernie supporters, who aren't that common in the first place (even college students complain that Bernie is "literally a socialist" or that he was full of crap when he was promising free college.) Kucinich's brand of politics is an incredibly poor fit here.

[Ohioguy29]

If anyone is interested, these are my post-Q1 financial filing predictions for the Ohio House and Ohio Senate.

Two Senate seats are more Democratic than my initial predictions, and 3 are more Republican. Eight House seats are more Democratic than my initial predictions, and 22 are more Republican. Of the 25 seats that became Republican, eight were optimistic "Very Likely Republican" seats becoming Safe.

I'm gonna wait until after primaries and a second quarter of fundraising to make my own predictions. I'm factoring money into it less than you do, but it's not irrelevant and maaaaan did some candidates have disappointing fundraising figures. Aziz Ahmad, Adam VanHo, Dan Gordon, what the hell happened?

Speaking of money, I'm much less optimistic about HD-88 than you are. It's a winnable district on paper and Rachel Crooks has raised a ton of money, but all the money in the world can't help you if you're an awful fit for the district.

[Ohioguy29]

In Cincinnati, even relatives of Parkland survivors prefer Cordray to Kucinich. Her argument is basically that Kucinich can't win and that you're delusional if you think we're getting an AWB in Ohio. Which is accurate. She says Kucinich is "promising something he can't deliver" and that "people will die while we wait for that ban." Ouch! She also says "I live in the real world" on multiple occasions.

I appreciate that pragmatism, in the Democratic Party, isn't dead after all.

I find that Democrats in this area are among the most pragmatic I've ever seen and we're very skeptical of grand promises. Idealism died here a long time ago if it ever even existed in the first place. Kucinich is also just broadly hated here, even among Bernie supporters, who aren't that common in the first place (even college students complain that Bernie is "literally a socialist" or that he was full of crap when he was promising free college.) Kucinich's brand of politics is an incredibly poor fit here.

This is single most accurate sentence I've ever read about Ohio btw.

Oh, that's really only in reference to the Cincinnati area. I don't think you can generalize all of Ohio politics that way. Northeast Ohio definitely seems less bitter and jaded.

[Ohioguy29]

For the record I'm not a Kuchinich supporter, but I think it would be absolutely hilarious if he won. I'd be the happiest boy on Atlas.

I'm in the same boat. He's a little too kooky, but the meltdowns from some of the red avatars here would be hilarious.

“For the record, I’m not a Stein voter, but I think it would be absolutely hilarious if she cost Democrats the election.  I’d be the happiest boy on Atlas.  Trump’s a little kooky, but the meltdowns from some of the red avatars here would be hilarious.” - Basically the logic of many on the left who sat out 2016.  

Treating bad outcomes which will cause many people to get hurt as cause for celebration simply because it might upset someone you don’t like or b/c “LOL wouldn’t it be crazy if that happened” is a pretty elitist mindset and such attitudes are generally a luxury only afforded to those who will never have to worry about where their next meal is coming from and tend to suggest a remarkable lack of empathy for those hurt by the results of certain electoral outcomes.  Elections aren’t some game that exists only as an excuse to upset people you disagree with; they have significant consequences and when bad people win it can put them in a position to destroy the lives of some of the most vulnerable members of society.  I would have hoped that would be self-evident to folks who dedicate as much time as you guys do to True Left virtue signaling, but I guess not.

[Ohioguy29]

 I generally feel about Ohio the way IceSpear feels about the people of West Virginia.

You are perfectly free to stay out of the state for the rest of your life. I think we'd all be happier for it. But if you don't want to come, please don't poke your head into this thread and actively advocate for Ohioans to suffer because of your prejudices.

I am loving all these righteous smackdowns. There are states I'm not too fond of because of their politics or whatever, but I there isn't a single state where I'd want the people there to suffer. I just can't understand that complete lack of empathy.

[Ohioguy29]

Interesting early absentee vote info from The Columbus Dispatch:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Looks like Appalachia is coming home.

Yes! Good sign for the general election and for the general health of the Democratic party. The party is better with Appalachians in it.

[Ohioguy29]

I think we pick up SOS before Treasurer. Clyde and Richardson are both strong, and while Sprague is weaker than LaRose, the fact of the matter is Richardson will have extra hurdles as a candidate of color. Does Richardson boost turnout in Cincinnati? Yes. Hamilton County in general? Yes. Maybe even in Warren County? Possibly. But looking at trends, he simply won't do as well in Trumbull and Mahoning, and even if, say, Zack Space and Sherrod Brown win back Monroe and Belmont, maybe even Jefferson, it's unlikely Richardson does.

As a resident of the Cincinnati area, I don't see Richardson boosting turnout in Warren County. He's not well known outside of Cincinnati, and Warren County is very white and very racist.