OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Badger]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

Not really. Ryan could easily wind up in the mold of Kaptur, that is to say, a House lifer. He got into a safe Congressional seat at the age of 29, what's his actual incentive to seek statewide office? He will, eventually, be Chairman of the Appropriations Committee if he sticks around, or he could wind up as Speaker.

I think speakership is pretty likely. The Progressives are getting much stronger than before, and when the Democrats retake the House there may be a lot of pressure on the Representatives to choose a Speaker paltable to their base. Ryan would be a leading candidate. I do think though, that even a failed run for Governor, if he campaigns decently, could keep him popular and increase his name ID. That would be a net positive.

If he runs for governor he's not getting that seat back. There are two popular Ds salavating for him to step aside

Just curious, who?

[Badger]

Just wondering, what in particular makes Mingo a bad candidate?

Placeholder for whenever I have time to make megapost about all his scandals and skeletons and general awfulness as a candidate.  And speaking as a resident of a fairly Republican part of Franklin County, he really wouldn't over-perform generic R at all here, especially not with African-Americans.  Leland would kick Mingo's a**, to be blunt.  Of course, that's what happens when you run an A-list candidate who happens to be a fundraising powerhouse when motivated against a weak B-list Republican.  The margin may not be a blowout, to be sure, but Leland's got this if he runs unless a much stronger Republican than Mingo gets in the race.

REALLY interested in this follow-up when you have time.

With Mingo's military background, plus being an African-American Republican office holding from a large Democratic county, I'd always assumed he's a potential future star. Not that I know much else about him.

[Badger]

I actually think way too many people give credit to gerrymandering, it's a factor, but it's rarely as egregious as everyone claims it is (Illinois congressional is, and Ohio's is bad, but it's also what congressional Ds wanted at the time to dump Kucinich). I honestly feel the democrats complete inaction on recruiting good candidates has been their downfall for some time, let's not forget they had the house not that long ago. And it's an epidemic that has trended statewide, David Pepper, Mary O'shaugnessy, Kevin Boyce, Nina Turner, Ed Fitzgerald, have all been pretty awful recruits for statewide races.

I'll put it this way, the ODP has under Chris redfern and now David pepper been a dumpster fire due to terrible management from the top.

Undervaluing gerrymandering is grotesquely wrong in Ohio. Not should one EVER separate it from candidate recruitment. The opposition isn't going to recruit good candidates, let alone well financed ones, to run in a sacrificial lamb district. Not to mention wheedling down the number of opposition legislative seat holders weakens the opposition's bench overall.

[Badger]

I actually think way too many people give credit to gerrymandering, it's a factor, but it's rarely as egregious as everyone claims it is (Illinois congressional is, and Ohio's is bad, but it's also what congressional Ds wanted at the time to dump Kucinich). I honestly feel the democrats complete inaction on recruiting good candidates has been their downfall for some time, let's not forget they had the house not that long ago. And it's an epidemic that has trended statewide, David Pepper, Mary O'shaugnessy, Kevin Boyce, Nina Turner, Ed Fitzgerald, have all been pretty awful recruits for statewide races.

I'll put it this way, the ODP has under Chris redfern and now David pepper been a dumpster fire due to terrible management from the top.

Undervaluing gerrymandering is grotesquely wrong in Ohio. Not should one EVER separate it from candidate recruitment. The opposition isn't going to recruit good candidates, let alone well financed ones, to run in a sacrificial lamb district. Not to mention wheedling down the number of opposition legislative seat holders weakens the opposition's bench overall.

The problem with this statement is I believe everyone is over valuing gerrymandering, republicans are winning state house and state senate districts well out of where they should be.

House Districts with large D advantages like state house 5 and 89, as well as plenty of others which should be more competitive, like 3, 19, 55, 36, 37, 38, 94, 28, 29, 43, are not blowouts due to gerrymandering, these are close districts that democrats have not really competed in years

The 89th I'll give you as being competitive, but no way on the 5th. It's a single county (Columbiana) district that Obama lost twice by almost 8 points and even Sherrod Brown lost against Mandel. In the short term it's worth noting Trump carried it by over 40 points. At the local state house level it's R lean at least.

I think you are similarly overstating the competitiveness of some of the districts such as the 19th. More to the point, while there are no reasons Democrats can't be competitive in single county swing districts like the 3rd (Wood County), the "unique" mapping of districts such as the 19th or 55th make it at least tilt R in areas where, but for surgical drawing of boundary lines, Republicans generally would make little to know headway.

Plus, once one ensures control of the state legislature with such a map, don't ever underestimate the statewide fundraising advantage that gives the party in charge, which translates to wins in semi-competitive district. 

Sorry, but when the Republican Party writes a map that is baldly unfair and undemocratic statewide, I'm not going to give kudos and excuse it just for winning a few seats Democrats are still compitative in.

[Badger]

I actually think way too many people give credit to gerrymandering, it's a factor, but it's rarely as egregious as everyone claims it is (Illinois congressional is, and Ohio's is bad, but it's also what congressional Ds wanted at the time to dump Kucinich). I honestly feel the democrats complete inaction on recruiting good candidates has been their downfall for some time, let's not forget they had the house not that long ago. And it's an epidemic that has trended statewide, David Pepper, Mary O'shaugnessy, Kevin Boyce, Nina Turner, Ed Fitzgerald, have all been pretty awful recruits for statewide races.

I'll put it this way, the ODP has under Chris redfern and now David pepper been a dumpster fire due to terrible management from the top.

Undervaluing gerrymandering is grotesquely wrong in Ohio. Not should one EVER separate it from candidate recruitment. The opposition isn't going to recruit good candidates, let alone well financed ones, to run in a sacrificial lamb district. Not to mention wheedling down the number of opposition legislative seat holders weakens the opposition's bench overall.

The problem with this statement is I believe everyone is over valuing gerrymandering, republicans are winning state house and state senate districts well out of where they should be.

House Districts with large D advantages like state house 5 and 89, as well as plenty of others which should be more competitive, like 3, 19, 55, 36, 37, 38, 94, 28, 29, 43, are not blowouts due to gerrymandering, these are close districts that democrats have not really competed in years

The 89th I'll give you as being competitive, but no way on the 5th. It's a single county (Columbiana) district that Obama lost twice by almost 8 points and even Sherrod Brown lost against Mandel. In the short term it's worth noting Trump carried it by over 40 points. At the local state house level it's R lean at least.

I think you are similarly overstating the competitiveness of some of the districts such as the 19th. More to the point, while there are no reasons Democrats can't be competitive in single county swing districts like the 3rd (Wood County), the "unique" mapping of districts such as the 19th or 55th make it at least tilt R in areas where, but for surgical drawing of boundary lines, Republicans generally would make little to know headway.

Plus, once one ensures control of the state legislature with such a map, don't ever underestimate the statewide fundraising advantage that gives the party in charge, which translates to wins in semi-competitive district. 

Sorry, but when the Republican Party writes a map that is baldly unfair and undemocratic statewide, I'm not going to give kudos and excuse it just for winning a few seats Democrats are still compitative in.

Ah how short is your memory. Columbiana county may have gone against Obama, but it elected D state rep in 2006, 2008, and 2012. This time? A joke candidate for the democrats.

And sure the 19th and the 55th tilt R with this map, so why then were the democrats literally unable to recruit a candidate in 55.

And that tilt R district 55? It went 67% for the democrat in 2012.


The 19th also featured an absolute joke of a candidate for the democrats. You can't always blame gerrymandering when a party can't find a candidate in a competitive district like 55 and 19.

Gerrymandering exists, absolutely, but the sheer ineptitude in candidate recruitment is the reason the republicans have super majorities, they are winning in democrat districts at this point.

Incumbancy has advantages for both parties. Taking the 5th in Columbiana County as an example, should we assume that Jim Hood being repeatedly re-elected as Attorney General shows MS is a lean-D state?

Again, enforced majorities create huge fund-raising advantages which affect every legislative race, which severely affects candidate recruitment. Those with expertise in gerrymandering are the first to crow about it (privately). Have the state Dems screwed up some recruitment opportunities? Sure. Could they break the super-majority (forget the majority) if they got their act together? Probably not without without all the cards going right and drawing an inside straight on election day. And THE reason for that is the district map.

[Badger]

Mike DeWine killed a Fair Redistricting amendment yesterday. Republicans in the State poll as favoring fair districts, so this may bite him.

Interestingly, his main opponent Husted has been a frequent and vocal supporter of redistricting reform for some time.

Fully independent or just with strong guidelines, a la Iowa?

I think the bill he put forward several time was for at least one member of the minority party on the apportionment board had to approve the map.

Better than nothing I suppose. Still think the Iowa method is the best.

I attended a republican dinner a couple years back where Senate leader, and now likely future auditor, Keith Faber was the keynote speaker. It was when the last redistricting amendment was on the ballot. It passed overwhelmingly with bipartisan support. It's weak as dishwater. He openly stated the reason the Republican party was behind it was that it would hopefully preempt more "liberal"--read "worth a damn" measures like those in Arizona from getting passed.

Also keep in mind that in the last election after redistricting in 2012 Republican congressional candidates Statewide took 52% of the vote, but won three quarters of the seats.

Put these two analogies together and he will quickly determine how committed the Ohio Republican party is to actual redistricting reform. Any moves they take are merely to preempt something worse comma because Ohio is so badly gerrymandered get that has such a reasonably strong Democratic voting days that it's one of the few States where districting reform is developing Broad Grassroots bipartisan support

[Badger]

Democrats are pushing an unlikely source — Jerry Springer — to run for governor in Ohio

Aren't rumors of Springer being recruited for Governor a quadrennial tradition in Ohio?

Seemingly, he told a friend of mine who was pushing him he wasn't running

Springer's never gonna run and no one wants him to, but every cycle some random local reporter looking for a headline or low-level Republican operative tries to make this a thing even though everyone knows it's ridiculous.

This.

[Badger]

Maybe I'm a cynic, but Mary Taylor is capitalizing on her sons' opioid addiction to connect with voters.

it seems tasteless

I wish she was asked how she squares her strong opposition to the ACA and even Kasich's Medicaid expansion when both have been integral for tens of thousands of families getting their loved ones treatment, and cutting either will only allow the epidemic to further explode. I'm rather cheesed at her compete disconnect between her exceptionally wealthy family having the resources to get good--or any treatment--and wrongly assuming or otherwise ignoring that such resources are scarce even for middle class families.

Ooh. Here's a quote from the Dispatch:

Despite her personal story and six-year service in the Kasich administration, Taylor does not yet have a detailed plan on how she would fight the opioid epidemic if she is elected governor.

“We need a comprehensive solution and it’s going to involve the feds. It’s going to involve everybody,” she said. “We need law enforcement, we need community activists, we need churches and faith-based groups. A comprehensive solution is going to be just that.”

A centerpiece to Kasich’s approach, however, is opposed by Taylor. Kasich initiated an expansion of Medicaid, made possible by Obamacare, and has been accepting federal funds to serve an additional 715,000 low-income Ohioans, including roughly 215,000 with drug abuse and addiction issues.

“Right now, Obamacare, including Medicaid, is not sustainable,” Taylor said. “So, the ball is in the court of Washington now. They have to figure out what they’re going to do going forward with regard to any provisions related to Obamacare.”

Sharfstein said Medicaid is the largest payer of addiction treatment services in many states and its expansion has given millions of adults with drug problems access to treatment.

“There is no substitute for Medicaid. There is no huge source of money that is going to be available to supplant it,” he said. “I think this is important for anyone that wants to help on addiction to take a clear-eyed, non-ideological, evidence-based look. What is it that is providing treatment that can save people’s lives? Bottom line is it’s Medicaid.”

Taylor doesn’t buy that throwing money at the problem will solve it.

“I’m prepared to fund the plan that I put in place but I don’t think right now there is a comprehensive plan that I have seen…that actually is going to make progress,” she said. “At the end of the day, we want to save lives. We want to get it off our street, get it out of our state and save lives — all three of those.” (emphasis added)

Dee-lite-full., Mary.

[Badger]

Off the top of my head, I wonder if Pilich might abandon her bid to run for Treasurer instead, especially if Cordray doesn't run and possibly bump  one of the stronger grooming at Oriole candidates down to run for a lower State office. It sounds like there's some weakness in the current potential candidates, and the impression I get is Democrats at least appreciate her doing as relatively well against Mandel as she did for years ago. It's probably not too late to switch gears, and Lord knows she have a better chance than she's doing running for governor right now. Thoughts?

[Badger]

Ok why exactly are we going after Cordray?  This only makes me worry about him even more than I already am.

You should be worried  Luckily for you guys, he probably won't run.

Agreed. But hope springs eternal...

Any takes on the numbers, X?

Yeah, a few:

1) Those Husted numbers

2) This confirms my long-held belief that Renacci was always a weak incumbent.  Those are some embarrassing numbers for him for the reason Rjjr77 mentioned. 

3) Taylor should really drop out and run for Renacci's seat (although tbh, I'm not convinced she'd even win that primary and could even see her coming in third, but her odds would still be much better)

4) Dettelbach's doing great!  Space just got in so I'm not worried about him either.

5) LaRose is posting solid numbers, but Clyde's were a lot better than I expected.  I was expecting her to post something like $150,000.  Maybe we have a shot at winning this race after all

6) Yost and especially Faber's numbers were definitely underwhelming

7) Pillich is obviously a surprise, but the big story (sorry to bury the lead ) is how bad these numbers were for Sutton.  I'm not ready to say she's a third wheel or anything, but if her next fundraising report looks anything like this then she's done.  Now I really have a hard time seeing Leland accepting any sort of LG offer from her (didn't expect it to happen either way, but my mind is now a bit more at ease) 

Mingo's numbers are also much weaker than I expected.  I wonder if the ORP finally figured out that nominating him would be a gift to the ODP.

Someday I'm looking for you to spill the beans on what your know--or have at least heard about--Mingo's skeletons.

[Badger]

I guess Pillich could run against Chabot if Portune skips it.

This, and why not Schivoni for Treasurer? Or hell, p i l l i c h could take another shot considering she did better than anyone else on the ticket 4 years ago.

[Badger]

The Republican candidates for Governor took the debate stage Sunday night, with moderator Frank Luntz -- remember him? He's done some interesting polling of the race -- and the one thing all candidates seemed to agree upon: Kasich's not conservative enough.

At the end of the debate, Luntz pleaded with the candidates to keep it civil. Since then, a Renacci campaign team member posted this to Facebook.



Renacci has next to no-shot, but his feud with Husted is getting ugly, and Husted has been firing back. If Democrats are lucky, Renacci might push DeWine over the top, or inspire some hardline conservatives to stay home because, in his own words, Husted is a "liberal."

Kasich is one of the last few sane elected officials in my party anymore. And he's a bit conservative for my taste for that matter. My party is going to hell

[Badger]

Wanted to ask, why would Husted be the better GE Candidate and why do some people here think he can beat DeWine?  From an outsider looking at the polling, DeWine appears to be the frontrunner.

Dewine has high name ID but a ton of baggage, husted is dynamic, younger, conservative in all the right issues, moderate enough for cross over voters, likeable, and good looking. If his name was Juan Husted he'd be talked about as the next GOP president. Even liberal democrats in Ohio would say they don't hate him.

Pretty much this. Though the last bit was much more true before 2014. Purging voter rolls and killing Golden Week has tarnished his reputation a fair bit.

Purging voter rolls stuff is such nonsense, Sherrod Brown and Jennifer Brunner both did the same thing as SOS.

There was never any concerted partisan effort to do so under either of them. Let's face facts shall we? Whatever Republican is elected as Secretary of State they become the de facto director of voter suppression. There's not an ounce of hyperbole in that, and while no Republican will ever publicly admit it, and even many privately won't as they convince themselves they are really truly honestly fighting voter fraud that exists somewhere somehow in an unproven form, privately it's well known by the leadership this is to suppress the Democratic vote.

[Badger]

Issue 1: No

Issue 2: Undecided

No on 1, Yes on 2.

I expect to be on the losing side for both.

[Badger]

David Berger leads 2-1 in the absentees. He'll be fine.

I voted for him when I was a Lima Resident and Assistant City Prosecutor in the late 90's. Great guy. The city was sucking then too, so people don't blame the Mayor for de-industrialization. I remember when the Republican County Sheriff, Dan Beck, ran against him. An immigrant basher back long before Trump made it cool.

[Badger]

Issue 1: No

Issue 2: Undecided

No on 1, Yes on 2.

I expect to be on the losing side for both.

But I didn't expect it to be nearly THAT bad.

[Badger]

At the statewide level, we passed a constitutional amendment called Mary's Law that a California millionaire has been financing around the country. The amendment calls for "victim's rights" in criminal proceedings. Most of it is redundant, as the Ohio Constitution already featured a set of victim's rights, while part of it is incredibly harmful and hampers due process by letting the victims of crime refuse participation in the discovery process.

We also rejected an amendment that would have set a fixed price the state pays for pharmaceuticals and tied that price to the discount rate the VA pays. Nice on paper, but a lot of problems with enforcement, and some weird provisions about using tax dollars to pay for a private legal defense of the bill passed and incurred law suits, which almost certainly would have given enforcement issues.

The incumbent Mayor of Toledo lost re-election to another Democrat, the incumbent Mayor of Lima retained his seat versus a competent Republican, the incumbent Mayor of Cincinatti crushed his opposition after barely scraping into second place during the open primary, and the Mayor of Cleveland won an unprecedented fourth term.

Whoa letting alleged victims opt out of discovery!? That’s insane. Is that even constitutional?

No, it’ll be struck down.  Still horrible

This. It forces defendants to get a court order, as in a subpoena, to have the Victim disclose anything they don't wish to, rather than it being required in the discovery process.

[Badger]

Marsy's Law won't get struck down. It's existed in California and Illinois for years. Also Minnesota, I think.

The difference is, the Democratic Party in California opposed the ballot initiative. Democrats here, present company excluded, generally supported it.

Portions of it like the aforementioned Discovery exclusions maybe individually struck down. The law has a hole certainly won't be

[Badger]

Jesus H Christ, Ohio Democrats must be the most miserable people in the country to be around

It's starting to make sense why Badger is a Republican. lol

LOLOLOL!

Oh, and I can tell you first hand from when I was a Democrat:

"This politician, while universally considered intelligent, has a speaking style duller than dishwater."

"Alex, who is Rick Cordray?"

[Badger]

The Representative Goodman resignation story just got a lot more interesting.

I didn't see anything new in that story you linked. What am I missing?

[Badger]

And apparently O'Neill is resigning from the Ohio Supreme Court to stay in: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/07/ohio-supreme-court-justice-bill/929930001/

That stupid mother-effer.

I mean does it really matter?

Ask this Ohio defense attorney about the number of 4-3 votes on important issues in the Ohio Supreme Court, and you'll get a resounding yes.

[Badger]

Whaley and Schiavoni will be back. Pillich ... Maybe not.

The fairly accurate rumor mongrels over at 3rd Rail are reporting Kucinich will choose either Nina Turner of State Senator Skindell to be his running mate.

Kucinich/Turner? Jesus Christ, what a black hole of awfulness that would be.

[Badger]

Klein's definitely a rising star, and he'll be back. I know some people are mad that Pfeiffer's right-hand man, who was going to run for City Attorney when Pfeiffer stepped down was basically pushed aside. I forget his name right now, but Klein's liable to run for County Prosecutor again in 2020, so hopefully, this other guy can make a comeback.

And yeah, no doubt, Stinziano's favored, especially in this environment, but Democrats haven't won the Franklin County Auditor's office since 1974! Still, I'm taking nothing for granted.

Bill Hedrick?

[Badger]

Klein's definitely a rising star, and he'll be back. I know some people are mad that Pfeiffer's right-hand man, who was going to run for City Attorney when Pfeiffer stepped down was basically pushed aside. I forget his name right now, but Klein's liable to run for County Prosecutor again in 2020, so hopefully, this other guy can make a comeback.

And yeah, no doubt, Stinziano's favored, especially in this environment, but Democrats haven't won the Franklin County Auditor's office since 1974! Still, I'm taking nothing for granted.

Bill Hedrick?

Yeah, I guess.

Though I've heard Klein likely won't run for County Prosecutor in 2020, but AG in 2026. Which kind of makes sense. He'd be at risk of tarnishing his stardom. But damn, I'd love to have Franklin County Prosecutor, and I don't think O'Brien retires in 2020 unless he's in for another very close election, and IDK who we'd run against him.

That's interesting, but I have a hard time believing O'Brien is going to risk another tough race when he knows Franklin County falls further out of the Republican orbit every year, and after Klein serves a term as City Prosecutor O'Brien can't go after him as "Zero experience Zach". I strongly suspect he'll see the writing on the wall and go out on top, leaving the office wide open to Klein, and for Bill Hedrick to become the City's (maybe the state's?) first gay Law Director.

Franklin County Prosecutor is probably a better stepping stone to the AG's office than Columbus City Prosecutor anyway, and he's assuming there won't be a Democratic incumbent AG in 26, so he better take what he can while he can, IMHO.

[Badger]

Klein's definitely a rising star, and he'll be back. I know some people are mad that Pfeiffer's right-hand man, who was going to run for City Attorney when Pfeiffer stepped down was basically pushed aside. I forget his name right now, but Klein's liable to run for County Prosecutor again in 2020, so hopefully, this other guy can make a comeback.

And yeah, no doubt, Stinziano's favored, especially in this environment, but Democrats haven't won the Franklin County Auditor's office since 1974! Still, I'm taking nothing for granted.

Bill Hedrick?

Yeah, I guess.

Though I've heard Klein likely won't run for County Prosecutor in 2020, but AG in 2026. Which kind of makes sense. He'd be at risk of tarnishing his stardom. But damn, I'd love to have Franklin County Prosecutor, and I don't think O'Brien retires in 2020 unless he's in for another very close election, and IDK who we'd run against him.

That's interesting, but I have a hard time believing O'Brien is going to risk another tough race when he knows Franklin County falls further out of the Republican orbit every year, and after Klein serves a term as City Prosecutor O'Brien can't go after him as "Zero experience Zach". I strongly suspect he'll see the writing on the wall and go out on top, leaving the office wide open to Klein, and for Bill Hedrick to become the City's (maybe the state's?) first gay Law Director.

Franklin County Prosecutor is probably a better stepping stone to the AG's office than Columbus City Prosecutor anyway, and he's assuming there won't be a Democratic incumbent AG in 26, so he better take what he can while he can, IMHO.

Generally, I agree with your assessment — FCP is a much better launching pad than CCA and O’Brien’s in for a tough race come 2020 — but a counterpoint, if I may.

Thanks to the fact that the Ohio General Assembly is under the FCP’s jurisdiction, the office has significantly more power than any other county office in the state. If Democrats take back the Governor’s mansion and the row offices, and make significant gains in the state house, I would expect FCRP to really sink it’s teeth into holding the FCP. At this point in time, it looks like Clarence Minho will run for re-election this year, and given Franklin County’s trend, I would expect that race to be triaged when it is next up. Correspondingly, the idea that Republicans are more disciplined with their finances is going out the window. Not so with the idea they’re tough on crime, and that’s what people want, especially in the suburbs. And not just Hilliard and Dublin, Upper Arlington and even Bexley, too. If Klein does run for FCP in 2020, he risks coming across as a massive careerist — a label most Columbus politicians struggle with — and the slight chance of another loss, which really would dampen his star.

I do think it’s a safe enough bet there won’t be an incumbent Democratic AG in 2026. If Dettelbach wins this year, he either wins re-elect in 2022 or doesn’t. Either way, that leaves a Democratic opening for Klein. (Though of Dettelbach is a two term AG, we almost certainly keep the office in 2026.)

All valid points, but that didn't stop Zach Klein from winning a countywide race for City prosecutor's office by 40 points running as a Democrat. Of course it'll be different running against O'Brien, and yes he'll have plenty of funding both locally and from the state, but Klein won't lack either. If he wants to run for attorney general in 2026, I can't imagine a failed 2020 race for Franklin County prosecutor would be even remembered at that point, no more than his losing 2 O'Brien just last year hurt him in his race for City prosecutor