App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map
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  App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map
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Author Topic: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map  (Read 35046 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #200 on: November 28, 2017, 11:22:01 PM »
« edited: November 29, 2017, 06:32:42 AM by muon2 »

CA plus HI is about 1/9 of the total number of electors. If you made nine contiguous superstates of about that same size, how would they vote?
55: CA
73: WA+OR+NV+ID+UT+AZ+MT+WY+CO+NM+HI (removed HI from CA to secure sub-10% deviation from quota) (+AK?)
56: TX+OK+NE+KS
62: ND+SD+MN+IA+MO+WI+IL
64: AR+LA+MS+TN+IN+KY+WV+AL
54: FL+GA+SC
58: NC+VA+MD+DE+NJ (+DC?)
54: OH+MI+PA
62: NY+CT+RI+MA+VT+NH+ME
This is one way it could have been done ofc.
Clinton won 5 of these, and Trump won 4. The upper Midwest one with IL was quite close.

It looks like HI should stay with CA giving it 59 and 64 for the other western superstate.
I was looking at 2010 census population figures when making this, not the EC. So I can see what the mix up is.

Edited to add AK
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #201 on: November 29, 2017, 12:14:28 AM »


Extending each state so it has either a coastal or Great Lakes boundary
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wxtransit
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« Reply #202 on: November 29, 2017, 12:15:15 AM »

Why did I do this
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #203 on: November 29, 2017, 12:19:29 AM »

Positively insane!
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #204 on: November 29, 2017, 12:31:34 AM »

All you need for Colorado to turn R is to move Denver out.
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wxtransit
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« Reply #205 on: November 29, 2017, 12:40:05 AM »

I know, I was just too lazy to click just Denver.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #206 on: November 29, 2017, 01:15:52 AM »

my evvviill masterpiece
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
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« Reply #207 on: November 29, 2017, 07:32:01 AM »

Extending each state so it has either a coastal or Great Lakes boundary
We're all coastal elites around here.
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muon2
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« Reply #208 on: November 29, 2017, 08:27:04 AM »

My idea for superstates was that they would be casting their electors as a bloc, much like the NPVIC proposes, but only within each regional superstate. They keep their full electors by state, so the app would have to be adjusted to put back the electors from the senators. Here's what I get, following TimTurner's lead, though I'll leave it to anyone else who wants to fill in the app.

59: HI+CA
59: AK+WA+OR+NV+ID+UT+MT+WY+CO+ND+SD
61: AZ+NM+TX+OK
57: KS+NE+MN+IA+MO+IL
60: WI+MI+IN+OH+WV
58: AR+LA+MS+AL+FL
58: KY+TN+GA+SC+NC
63: PA+NJ+DE+MD+DC+VA
62: NY+CT+RI+MA+VT+NH+ME

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Torie
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« Reply #209 on: November 29, 2017, 08:40:46 AM »

My idea for superstates was that they would be casting their electors as a bloc, much like the NPVIC proposes, but only within each regional superstate. They keep their full electors by state, so the app would have to be adjusted to put back the electors from the senators. Here's what I get, following TimTurner's lead, though I'll leave it to anyone else who wants to fill in the app.

59: HI+CA
59: AK+WA+OR+NV+ID+UT+MT+WY+CO+ND+SD
61: AZ+NM+TX+OK
57: KS+NE+MN+IA+MO+IL
60: WI+MI+IN+OH+WV
58: AR+LA+MS+AL+FL
58: KY+TN+GA+SC+NC
63: PA+NJ+DE+MD+DC+VA
62: NY+CT+RI+MA+VT+NH+ME



It looks like the Pubs would have 5 of the nine regions on lockdown, you partisan hack you. Tongue
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
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« Reply #210 on: November 29, 2017, 08:43:26 AM »

I see that, and I raise you an additional 16 EVs for the Republicans.
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muon2
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« Reply #211 on: November 29, 2017, 09:51:46 AM »
« Edited: November 29, 2017, 11:09:15 AM by muon2 »

My idea for superstates was that they would be casting their electors as a bloc, much like the NPVIC proposes, but only within each regional superstate. They keep their full electors by state, so the app would have to be adjusted to put back the electors from the senators. Here's what I get, following TimTurner's lead, though I'll leave it to anyone else who wants to fill in the app.

59: HI+CA
59: AK+WA+OR+NV+ID+UT+MT+WY+CO+ND+SD
61: AZ+NM+TX+OK
57: KS+NE+MN+IA+MO+IL
60: WI+MI+IN+OH+WV
58: AR+LA+MS+AL+FL
58: KY+TN+GA+SC+NC
63: PA+NJ+DE+MD+DC+VA
62: NY+CT+RI+MA+VT+NH+ME



It looks like the Pubs would have 5 of the nine regions on lockdown, you partisan hack you. Tongue

I could swap MN for IN which would improve the range by 1 at the cost of 1 in erosity. But I don't know about lockdown. Obama won the red Great Lakes superstate both times including IN, and Trump would win the one with the MN swap. Tongue

The blue Northwest region is no walk in the park for the Pubs either. Romney only won it by 1.6% with less than 50% of the total vote and Trump won by half that margin. Fair and balanced superstates is what I say.

Another tidbit: If I swap MN for IN, then Obama loses the IL superstate in 2012. I guess that's the more impressive Pub gerrymander. BTW Trump wins the IL superstate with or without the swap. Either way that's a swing superstate, too.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #212 on: November 29, 2017, 11:13:26 AM »

https://tinyurl.com/SoManyCloseStates

7 states decided by under 500 vote margins; 3 states decided by under 100 vote margins; 2 states decided by under 50 vote margins, all of which voted for Clinton.

Electoral Vote is 291-247 Clinton.

Iowa by 347 votes
Michigan by 437 votes
Minnesota by 71 votes
New Hampshire by 46 votes
Pennsylvania by 31 votes
West Virginia by 105 votes
Wisconsin by 149 votes
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Torie
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« Reply #213 on: November 29, 2017, 12:14:27 PM »

My idea for superstates was that they would be casting their electors as a bloc, much like the NPVIC proposes, but only within each regional superstate. They keep their full electors by state, so the app would have to be adjusted to put back the electors from the senators. Here's what I get, following TimTurner's lead, though I'll leave it to anyone else who wants to fill in the app.

59: HI+CA
59: AK+WA+OR+NV+ID+UT+MT+WY+CO+ND+SD
61: AZ+NM+TX+OK
57: KS+NE+MN+IA+MO+IL
60: WI+MI+IN+OH+WV
58: AR+LA+MS+AL+FL
58: KY+TN+GA+SC+NC
63: PA+NJ+DE+MD+DC+VA
62: NY+CT+RI+MA+VT+NH+ME



It looks like the Pubs would have 5 of the nine regions on lockdown, you partisan hack you. Tongue

I could swap MN for IN which would improve the range by 1 at the cost of 1 in erosity. But I don't know about lockdown. Obama won the red Great Lakes superstate both times including IN, and Trump would win the one with the MN swap. Tongue

The blue Northwest region is no walk in the park for the Pubs either. Romney only won it by 1.6% with less than 50% of the total vote and Trump won by half that margin. Fair and balanced superstates is what I say.

Another tidbit: If I swap MN for IN, then Obama loses the IL superstate in 2012. I guess that's the more impressive Pub gerrymander. BTW Trump wins the IL superstate with or without the swap. Either way that's a swing superstate, too.

What is the Trump margin in the NW region if you add the McMullin votes to his total (which voters would ordinarily vote Pub)?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #214 on: November 29, 2017, 01:55:45 PM »

My idea for superstates was that they would be casting their electors as a bloc, much like the NPVIC proposes, but only within each regional superstate. They keep their full electors by state, so the app would have to be adjusted to put back the electors from the senators. Here's what I get, following TimTurner's lead, though I'll leave it to anyone else who wants to fill in the app.

59: HI+CA
59: AK+WA+OR+NV+ID+UT+MT+WY+CO+ND+SD
61: AZ+NM+TX+OK
57: KS+NE+MN+IA+MO+IL
60: WI+MI+IN+OH+WV
58: AR+LA+MS+AL+FL
58: KY+TN+GA+SC+NC
63: PA+NJ+DE+MD+DC+VA
62: NY+CT+RI+MA+VT+NH+ME


Would it be possible to make the IL-centric state Clinton voting?
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muon2
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« Reply #215 on: November 29, 2017, 02:00:04 PM »

My idea for superstates was that they would be casting their electors as a bloc, much like the NPVIC proposes, but only within each regional superstate. They keep their full electors by state, so the app would have to be adjusted to put back the electors from the senators. Here's what I get, following TimTurner's lead, though I'll leave it to anyone else who wants to fill in the app.

59: HI+CA
59: AK+WA+OR+NV+ID+UT+MT+WY+CO+ND+SD
61: AZ+NM+TX+OK
57: KS+NE+MN+IA+MO+IL
60: WI+MI+IN+OH+WV
58: AR+LA+MS+AL+FL
58: KY+TN+GA+SC+NC
63: PA+NJ+DE+MD+DC+VA
62: NY+CT+RI+MA+VT+NH+ME



It looks like the Pubs would have 5 of the nine regions on lockdown, you partisan hack you. Tongue

I could swap MN for IN which would improve the range by 1 at the cost of 1 in erosity. But I don't know about lockdown. Obama won the red Great Lakes superstate both times including IN, and Trump would win the one with the MN swap. Tongue

The blue Northwest region is no walk in the park for the Pubs either. Romney only won it by 1.6% with less than 50% of the total vote and Trump won by half that margin. Fair and balanced superstates is what I say.

Another tidbit: If I swap MN for IN, then Obama loses the IL superstate in 2012. I guess that's the more impressive Pub gerrymander. BTW Trump wins the IL superstate with or without the swap. Either way that's a swing superstate, too.

What is the Trump margin in the NW region if you add the McMullin votes to his total (which voters would ordinarily vote Pub)?

Without going through the chore of creating the district again, it looks like there would be about 280K McMullin votes in the 3 states in that region where he was on the ballot (CO,ID,UT). That is a little over 2% of the vote IIRC, so Trump+McMullin would have about a 3% margin over HRC. That doesn't account for any WWC vote that wouldn't normally be Pub, so the margin with a generic Pub is presumably less.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #216 on: November 30, 2017, 03:30:09 PM »


Jesus, this gives me chills and goose bumps like that picture of the viviparous strawberry someone had in his sig last month. Well done.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #217 on: November 30, 2017, 06:33:10 PM »


Jesus, this gives me chills and goose bumps like that picture of the viviparous strawberry someone had in his sig last month. Well done.
Evil Tongue
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #218 on: December 01, 2017, 02:46:19 AM »

a mild looking one here
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Anti-Bothsidesism
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« Reply #219 on: December 02, 2017, 08:46:27 PM »

I decided to connect the state together and got this
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #220 on: December 02, 2017, 09:39:48 PM »

state mostly connected + R now at 535 EV
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #221 on: December 03, 2017, 10:49:30 AM »
« Edited: December 03, 2017, 10:59:51 AM by Solid4096 »

310 Clinton 228 Trump

318 Obama 220 Romney

Same map
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #222 on: December 03, 2017, 01:31:57 PM »

The numbers in this app are not up to date in either election.

Notable error for 2012:

If you put Imperial, San Diego, Riverside, Orange, and San Bernardino Counties, California into their own separate state:

Under kevinhayeswilson numbers, Romney wins by 563 votes.

Under wikipedia numbers, Obama wins by 86385 votes.

Riverside County itself is marked as a Romney win in the app, but actually voted for Obama.
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muon2
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« Reply #223 on: December 03, 2017, 02:54:15 PM »

The numbers in this app are not up to date in either election.

Notable error for 2012:

If you put Imperial, San Diego, Riverside, Orange, and San Bernardino Counties, California into their own separate state:

Under kevinhayeswilson numbers, Romney wins by 563 votes.

Under wikipedia numbers, Obama wins by 86385 votes.

Riverside County itself is marked as a Romney win in the app, but actually voted for Obama.

I believe that wilson used a media source for its county data. They typically report the initial unofficial returns, but I find that they rarely update with the final officia numbers. That's why we are here at Atlas. Dave Leip provides the official counts after all absentee and provisional ballots are in. Compare two of the counties you mention:

San Bernadino ( Atlas ): D 305,109; R 262,358; L 5883; Other 9580; TOTAL 582,390
San Bernadino (wilson): D 274,203; R 245,458; L 5408; Other 6613; TOTAL 531,682

Riverside ( Atlas ): D 329,063; R 318,127; L 6223; Other 9703; TOTAL 663,116
Riverside (wilson): D 287,754; R 290,227; L 5439; Other 6301; TOTAL 589,721

In both counties there was about a 10% increase in the total vote once made official. However, the additional votes are skewed D, so that gives the effect you see. After all the app is just a tool to see what if and has a disclaimer that the county numbers can change.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #224 on: December 03, 2017, 04:04:53 PM »

why do I do this?
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