App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I got a 91 Clinton - 447 Trump map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am so addicted to this

Same.
I spent most of the nighttime post-4 am till at least 5 pm earlier doing it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can combine states using this app, which is really neat. I always knew that a state that combined ID, WY, ND, SD, and MT would be the same size (population-speaking) as Louisiana, with 9 electoral votes instead of the 16 they have now, and that having one state instead of 5 would have flipped the election of 2000. What I didnt know until now is that if you add Nebraska to the superstate, it would only end up with eleven electoral votes, the same as Arizona, Tennessee, Massachusetts, and Indiana.

Its effect on the Senate would be more severe: a state which had 12 senators would now have 2, both Republicans. Remove 2 Democrats and 8 Republicans from the Senate to account for this, and you'd get a Democrat-controlled upper chamber, 46 to 44.

This shows just how gerrymandered the actual electoral college is. A group of people with the same numbers as Indiana have sextuple the Senate representation and nearly double the electoral college representation, just because of how they're distributed. (though this doesn't flip the 2016 election, but as we saw, changing the EC to do that is trivial)

See it here:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxotT4W5VIw9VFVzdHl6dE5KaHM/view?usp=sharing

The only states actually intentionally gerrymandered were the Dakotas being split in two by Rs in Washington before statehood. Most states were not created solely for political purposes, and their shapes are organic and not as easily changed as this app might apply. YMMV.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's actually 91 C 447 T, but that doesn't change the reality that this map is a terrible, mean R gerrymander.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can combine states using this app, which is really neat. I always knew that a state that combined ID, WY, ND, SD, and MT would be the same size (population-speaking) as Louisiana, with 9 electoral votes instead of the 16 they have now, and that having one state instead of 5 would have flipped the election of 2000. What I didnt know until now is that if you add Nebraska to the superstate, it would only end up with eleven electoral votes, the same as Arizona, Tennessee, Massachusetts, and Indiana.

Its effect on the Senate would be more severe: a state which had 12 senators would now have 2, both Republicans. Remove 2 Democrats and 8 Republicans from the Senate to account for this, and you'd get a Democrat-controlled upper chamber, 46 to 44.

This shows just how gerrymandered the actual electoral college is. A group of people with the same numbers as Indiana have sextuple the Senate representation and nearly double the electoral college representation, just because of how they're distributed. (though this doesn't flip the 2016 election, but as we saw, changing the EC to do that is trivial)

See it here:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxotT4W5VIw9VFVzdHl6dE5KaHM/view?usp=sharing

The only states actually intentionally gerrymandered were the Dakotas being split in two by Rs in Washington before statehood. Most states were not created solely for political purposes, and their shapes are organic and not as easily changed as this app might apply. YMMV.

Is it really just the Dakotas? I remember the Dakotas plus Montana/Idaho/Wyoming were added at the same time as separate states and found that to be really suspicious. Besides, even if the gerrymandering isn't intentional, it's still the effect that we got. The mountain west isn't even the only example, it's just the most glaring. (Vermont and Delaware, anyone?)

Democrats opposed the admission of the Western states. Rs only were able to admit them when they had the votes.
That being said, while most state boundaries were organic and such, in the antebellum years, for decades, some states were created to preserve the balance of votes between slave states and free states. Maine is one example.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You can combine states using this app, which is really neat. I always knew that a state that combined ID, WY, ND, SD, and MT would be the same size (population-speaking) as Louisiana, with 9 electoral votes instead of the 16 they have now, and that having one state instead of 5 would have flipped the election of 2000. What I didnt know until now is that if you add Nebraska to the superstate, it would only end up with eleven electoral votes, the same as Arizona, Tennessee, Massachusetts, and Indiana.

Its effect on the Senate would be more severe: a state which had 12 senators would now have 2, both Republicans. Remove 2 Democrats and 8 Republicans from the Senate to account for this, and you'd get a Democrat-controlled upper chamber, 46 to 44.

This shows just how gerrymandered the actual electoral college is. A group of people with the same numbers as Indiana have sextuple the Senate representation and nearly double the electoral college representation, just because of how they're distributed. (though this doesn't flip the 2016 election, but as we saw, changing the EC to do that is trivial)

See it here:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxotT4W5VIw9VFVzdHl6dE5KaHM/view?usp=sharing

The only states actually intentionally gerrymandered were the Dakotas being split in two by Rs in Washington before statehood. Most states were not created solely for political purposes, and their shapes are organic and not as easily changed as this app might apply. YMMV.

Nevada was also created for electoral purposes, to help buttress Lincoln's reelection in 1864. I think the same is true of Wyoming but am less certain.

Yeah, re: NV. They even have a state motto: "Battle Born". I knew I shouldn't had used "only" later on...I should have added "that I can recall atm". Nonetheless, NV was going to be admitted anyway; the Civil War just hastened statehood.
But my overall point stands. The UP wasn't added to MI so Trump could win it. It was added to compensate MI for the loss of the Toledo Strip.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I recreated this "50 States with Equal Population" map that was discussed a while ago.




Each state is worth around 10 EV's. From 2012, Hillary flipped Chinati and Atlanta, but Trump flipped Mesabi, Sangamon, Tidewater, and the Firelands.

How did Trinity vote?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I recreated this "50 States with Equal Population" map that was discussed a while ago.




Each state is worth around 10 EV's. From 2012, Hillary flipped Chinati and Atlanta, but Trump flipped Mesabi, Sangamon, Tidewater, and the Firelands.

How did Trinity vote?

Trump.

I mean what do you think the margin was.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

this would be 306-232 in 2008 I think, with CO, NM, NV, MI, OH, IA, and FL flipping in 2012.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Loudoun, VA + Montomery/Howard, MD, I think. At least, that's what Tim said in IRC.

Yes. You increase the population of WV by about 40%. Redone WV last voted Republican in 1984 (per Peebs).
2004: 424k R, 327k D in WV (56.46 Bush, R+5.22); 393k D 255k R outside WV (60.64 Kerry, D+9.41) Total: 720k D 679k R (51.47 Kerry, D+2.7)
Here is how it voted in 2004, divided between original WV, and the new additions.
It even voted Democratic in 2016:
489k R 188k D in WV (72.23 Trump, R+21.12); 560k D 210k R outside WV (D+21.62) Total: 748k D 699k R (51.69 Clinton, D+0.58)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

16:20   TimTurner   so the minimum number of counties need
16:20   TimTurner   to make hillary win
16:21   TimTurner   is Lake county il to wi
16:21   TimTurner   lucas county oh to MI
16:21   TimTurner   and mercer county NJ to pa
16:21   TimTurner   just 3 counties
16:21   TimTurner   280-258 clinton win

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://tinyurl.com/Superstatesdata

CA plus HI is about 1/9 of the total number of electors. If you made nine contiguous superstates of about that same size, how would they vote?

CA
WA+OR+NV+ID+UT+AZ+MT+WY+CO+NM+HI (removed HI from CA to secure sub-10% deviation from quota)
TX+OK+NE+KS
ND+SD+MN+IA+MO+WI+IL
AR+LA+MS+TN+IN+KY+WV+AL
FL+GA+SC
NC+VA+MD+DE+NJ
OH+MI+PA
NY+CT+RI+MA+VT+NH+ME
This is one way it could have been done ofc.
Clinton won 5 of these, and Trump won 4. The upper Midwest one with IL was quite close.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mwahahahahaha
Mwahahahahaha

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CA plus HI is about 1/9 of the total number of electors. If you made nine contiguous superstates of about that same size, how would they vote?

55: CA
73: WA+OR+NV+ID+UT+AZ+MT+WY+CO+NM+HI (removed HI from CA to secure sub-10% deviation from quota) (+AK?)
56: TX+OK+NE+KS
62: ND+SD+MN+IA+MO+WI+IL
64: AR+LA+MS+TN+IN+KY+WV+AL
54: FL+GA+SC
58: NC+VA+MD+DE+NJ (+DC?)
54: OH+MI+PA
62: NY+CT+RI+MA+VT+NH+ME
This is one way it could have been done ofc.
Clinton won 5 of these, and Trump won 4. The upper Midwest one with IL was quite close.

It looks like HI should stay with CA giving it 59 and 64 for the other western superstate.

I was looking at 2010 census population figures when making this, not the EC. So I can see what the mix up is.

Edited to add AK

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why did I do this

Positively insane!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

my evvviill masterpiece

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My idea for superstates was that they would be casting their electors as a bloc, much like the NPVIC proposes, but only within each regional superstate. They keep their full electors by state, so the app would have to be adjusted to put back the electors from the senators. Here's what I get, following TimTurner's lead, though I'll leave it to anyone else who wants to fill in the app.

59: HI+CA
59: AK+WA+OR+NV+ID+UT+MT+WY+CO+ND+SD
61: AZ+NM+TX+OK
57: KS+NE+MN+IA+MO+IL
60: WI+MI+IN+OH+WV
58: AR+LA+MS+AL+FL
58: KY+TN+GA+SC+NC
63: PA+NJ+DE+MD+DC+VA
62: NY+CT+RI+MA+VT+NH+ME

Would it be possible to make the IL-centric state Clinton voting?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

my evvviill masterpiece

Jesus, this gives me chills and goose bumps like that picture of the viviparous strawberry someone had in his sig last month. Well done.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

a mild looking one here

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president
This is a pretty good source for election data. There's a reason I have it bookmarked.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mwahahahahaha

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What even

That isn't even the most fun you can have with the South.
Credit goes to someone on AAD whose wicked state-y-mander I based this on.

Clean looking yet still very fiendish gerrymander>A+++

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

this is a fair, neutral map
and this is how it voted in 2016