App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map

[jimrtex]

Trump handily carried the 15-EV Idaho.

Other than California, all that Clinton carried in the west were the 5-EV Washington, 3-EV Oregon, 4-EV Minnesota, and 3-EV Hawaii.

It is a Trump 382-156 landslide.

[jimrtex]

You can combine states using this app, which is really neat. I always knew that a state that combined ID, WY, ND, SD, and MT would be the same size (population-speaking) as Louisiana, with 9 electoral votes instead of the 16 they have now, and that having one state instead of 5 would have flipped the election of 2000.

This is only because the Electoral College for 2000 was based on the 1990 Census, more than a decade before the election. Using those obsolescent numbers gave more representatives to Gore-leaning states than they deserved.

Use the 2000 apportionment on the 2000 presidential election would have resulted in Bush electoral college victory.

[jimrtex]

The only states actually intentionally gerrymandered were the Dakotas being split in two by Rs in Washington before statehood. Most states were not created solely for political purposes, and their shapes are organic and not as easily changed as this app might apply. YMMV.

The capital of Dakota Territory had been in Yankton on the Missouri River adjacent to Nebraska. Population in North Dakota was concentrated along the Red River, and then the Northern Pacific opened up east-west transportation across the state.

South Dakota was one of the very few states admitted to the Union with two representatives. A more credible case could be made for keeping Wyoming or Montana as territories.

[jimrtex]

Use the 2000 apportionment on the 2000 presidential election would have resulted in Bush electoral college victory.

freudian slip?

The apportionment based on the 2000 Census.

[jimrtex]

Is it really just the Dakotas? I remember the Dakotas plus Montana/Idaho/Wyoming were added at the same time as separate states and found that to be really suspicious. Besides, even if the gerrymandering isn't intentional, it's still the effect that we got. The mountain west isn't even the only example, it's just the most glaring. (Vermont and Delaware, anyone?)

The 1870 Census was the first after the Civil War, and the elimination of the 3/5 rule. The Northern Hegemons were in control and put lots of extras into the apportionment bill, including the uniform election date for Congress, a requirement for district elections, and a requirement that new states have enough population for one representative. They also passed a second apportionment bill to give extra representatives to states that elected Republicans, not based on population.

In 1890, South Dakota had more population than Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Delaware, and Nevada, and nearly as many as New Hampshire and Florida, and was one of very few states ever to be admitted with two representatives. It made eminent sense to add Washington, South Dakota, and North Dakota at the time. Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho were much more dubious, and they passed over Utah.

At the time, it was a widely held belief that the rain followed the plow, that plowing up the prairie sod, would attract rain. Dry years beginning soon after disabused them of that notion.

[jimrtex]

For the extreme cases there should be a rule that no "state" has less population than WY and there must be at least 50 states, though DC can be absorbed assuming the 23rd amendment was repealed.

Repeal of the 23rd is not needed. Congress could simply not appoint any electors.

[jimrtex]

50 states, drawn to (approximately) take the largest city in each state and then place each county in a state with whichever one of those cities is closest. Measurements are based on distance across land only, with a few exceptions (MI, Mackinac Bridge; Nantucket/Martha's Vineyard).

Election results here: 13 states were won by one candidate with less than 50% of the vote.

What happens if you repeat the process:

Burlington becomes Syracuse,
Little Rock becomes Memphis
Bridgeport becomes Albany?

[jimrtex]

Here was another fun one that came down to the wire: reducing the US to the 10 largest states, with each county assigned to whichever of those 10 states' largest cities was closest.

Ultimately, Michigan came down to 3,089 votes in favor of Clinton, and with that, the election (non-Atlas colors):

Jacksonville is the largest city in Florida.

The equidistant locus between two points on a sphere is a great circle perpendicular to the great circle between the two points at the point midway between the two points.

The boundary between Illinois (Chicago) and California (Los Angeles) should tilt towards the West and go through Montana. The northeastern corner of Alaska is almost equidistant between Chicago and Los Angeles.

[jimrtex]

I guess the state east of Phoenix is Mesa? But Mesa isn't even in the state! Seems like it should be by county rather than city.

There are three cities that are out of their states due to a larger city in their county. But I didn't measure distances by county here, I measured them from a city within a county to a large city. In the case of Mesa there are three AZ counties whose largest city is closer to Mesa than to either Phoenix or Tucson so Pinal, Gila and Navajo form a state. Similarly Orange CA is the Long Beach state and Denton TX is the Arlington state. Since it's based on travel time, there are times of day that no county would match to Arlington, so I went with a time when at least one county did.

If you used the 51 largest metropolitan areas you eliminate the problem, particularly if the MSA is always part of the state.

This would replace 5 secondary cities: Fort Worth, Long Beach, Mesa, Oakland, and Arlington. Eight additional cities would lose their place based on population:

Tucson 53rd MSA
Tulsa 55th
Fresno 56th
Omaha 59th
Albuquerque 60th
El Paso 68th
Colorado Springs 79th
Wichita 87th

The additional 13 would be:

Riverside 13th
Tampa 18th
St. Louis 20th
Orlando 23rd
Pittsburgh 26th
Cincinnati 28th
Providence 38th
Richmond 45th
Hartford 47th
Salt Lake City 48th
Birmingham 49th
Buffalo 50th
Rochester 51st

Interestingly, the most likely new state will be Grand Rapids, which is currently 52nd and growing faster than other challengers such as Tucson, Tulsa, and Fresno.