Did Michael Dukakis have a shot of winning in 1988?

[The Arizonan]

Would Michael Dukakis have been able to defeat George H.W. Bush in 1988 if the Willie Horton thing didn't happen and the footage of Dukakis riding the tank never surfaced or was the "Republican wall" too hard to crack?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sure. In the eyes of some observers, for a while, he was favored anyway.

[m4567]

No. I think a more inspiring could have made it much closer, though.

[OSR stands with Israel]

no Reagan was very popular by mid-1988 and Bush masterfully tied himself to Reagan while at the same time distancing himself enough to give the impression that he was his own man.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

No Willie Horton and no tank ad, Dukakis likely would've only lost by the margin Kerry lost to the younger Bush.

[MarkD]

Another important factor that hurt his electability was the way he handled the death penalty question during one of the televised debates.

[RINO Tom]

No Willie Horton and no tank ad, Dukakis likely would've only lost by the margin Kerry lost to the younger Bush.

Anyone want to guess what this map would look like without doing the ever-so-lame "uniform swing" that is SO Atlas?

[Gass3268]

No Willie Horton and no tank ad, Dukakis likely would've only lost by the margin Kerry lost to the younger Bush.

Anyone want to guess what this map would look like without doing the ever-so-lame "uniform swing" that is SO Atlas?

Would probably look something like this:

[Nym90]

The Democratic party had a chance of winning, but Michael Dukakis did not.

[White Trash]

The Democratic party had a chance of winning, but Michael Dukakis did not.

This is a pretty good assessment. The Democrats really put up the wrong kind of candidate for 1988.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Dukakis/Glenn (D)  279 EV
Bush/Quayle (R) 259 EV

With no Willie Horton and no "Tank" ad.

Actually, Dukakis might have overcame the "Tank" ad if there were no Willie Horton.