UK Local Elections, 4th May 2017

[Terry the Fat Shark]

And so with that, Tories won 4/6 of the new metro mayoral elections

[Bono]

South Lanarkshire (NOC Gain from LAB):

SNP 27 (+1)
Labour 22 (-10)
Liberal Democrat 1 (=)
Conservative 14 (+10)
Independent 0 (-1)

Glasgow (NOC Gain from LAB):

SNP 39 (+8)
Labour 31 (-16)
Conservative 8 (+7)
Green 7 (+3)
Independent 0 (-1)
Liberal Democrat 0 (-1)

Pretty impressive gains from the Conservatives in Glasgow, especially given where they were, but still not a patch on the big two.

Also, the Tories are the largest party in Tories largest party in six Scottish councils: Aberdeenshire, Dumfries & Galloway, East Renfrewshire, Perth & Kinross, Scottish Borders, and South Ayrshire. They're also tied with the SNP for largest in Stirling.
and

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour held up a lot better in South Wales than was being predicted or briefed; remain very much the dominant party of local government in the region. Which must be heartening news for their spiritual sister party the Walloon PS!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The results in general are strikingly un-Brexity, at both ends.

[Bono]

Labour actually gained seats in Donnie!!!

Labour 43 (+2)
Conservative 7 (-1)
Independent 5 (+1)
UKIP 0 (-2)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

That Edinburgh council is a mess and I can't see anything other than a Labour/Tory minority coalition coming from it - the Greens there would rather work with Labour over the SNP but I can't see them ever backing a Tory-led administration; who knows what the Libs do...

My hunch is that the main change is that Labour voters are now broadly preferencing the Tories while in 2012 they definitely weren't - they probably didn't go anywhere very strongly then; I don't have any data though.   That would explain why they've lost councillors despite an (apparent) increase in first preference votes from 2012.

Why wouldn't the SNP-Lab alliance continue seeing as they would only be one shot of a majority?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour holds onto Swansea in Wales, Plaid Cymru has now overtaken the Lib Dems for 4th place in total Councillors in Wales.

Labour managed to increase their majority in Swansea.

The present Labour administration in Swansea is - *touches wood* - the first local administration there not to be a total dumpster fire for ages.

[Bono]

Cornwall (NOC hold):

Conservative 46 (+15)
Liberal Democrat 37 (+2)
Independent 30 (-7)
Labour 5 (-3)
Mebyon Kernow 4 (=)
UKIP 0 (-6)
Green 0 (-1)

[Hnv1]

Cornwall (NOC hold):

Conservative 46 (+15)
Liberal Democrat 37 (+2)
Independent 30 (-7)
Labour 5 (-3)
Mebyon Kernow 4 (=)
UKIP 0 (-6)
Green 0 (-1)

Correct me if I'm wrong but that means Mebyon Kernow has more elected representatives than Ukip...which is A/ hilarious B/ an indications that it is now truly over for the piss stain of a party

[Bono]

Cornwall (NOC hold):

Conservative 46 (+15)
Liberal Democrat 37 (+2)
Independent 30 (-7)
Labour 5 (-3)
Mebyon Kernow 4 (=)
UKIP 0 (-6)
Green 0 (-1)

Correct me if I'm wrong but that means Mebyon Kernow has more elected representatives than Ukip...which is A/ hilarious B/ an indications that it is now truly over for the piss stain of a party

Remember UKIP has seats on councils that weren't up for election this time, while of course MK only runs in Cornwall.

[Hnv1]

Cornwall (NOC hold):

Conservative 46 (+15)
Liberal Democrat 37 (+2)
Independent 30 (-7)
Labour 5 (-3)
Mebyon Kernow 4 (=)
UKIP 0 (-6)
Green 0 (-1)

Correct me if I'm wrong but that means Mebyon Kernow has more elected representatives than Ukip...which is A/ hilarious B/ an indications that it is now truly over for the piss stain of a party

Remember UKIP has seats on councils that weren't up for election this time, while of course MK only runs in Cornwall.

True, I forgot about those still holding to their posts knowing the end is near (meaning they will start defecting en masse to the Tories soon). But they did come behind MK in this election cycle!

[Bono]

Finally Northamptonshire is out (CON hold):

Conservative 43 (+7)
Labour 12 (+1)
Liberal Democrat 2 (-4)
UKIP 0 (-3)
Independent 0 (-1)

Note that the BBC is giving a different result, with one more Labour councillor and one less LibDem. This is wrong, as the local press is reporting here https://sites.google.com/jpress.co.uk/elections2017/local-elections

EDIT: As as the BBC itself a acknowledges in their text report, but not the tables. *facepalm*

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Correct me if I'm wrong but that means Mebyon Kernow has more elected representatives than Ukip...which is A/ hilarious B/ an indications that it is now truly over for the piss stain of a party

Alas no; UKIP still have councillors elected in other years. But MK won more seats than them yesterday!

[Clyde1998]

To round up the council results:

United Kingdom (4,850/4,850 seats)
Con - 1,899 (+563)
Lab - 1,152 (-382)
Ind - 656 (-15)
Lib - 441 (-42)
SNP - 431 (-7)
Plaid - 202 (+35)
Grn - 40 (+6)
Oth - 28 (-13)
UKIP - 1 (-145)

England (2,374/2,374 seats)
Con - 1,438 (+319)
Lab - 1,152 (-142)
Lib - 312 (-28)
Ind - 162 (N/C)
Oth - 22 (-6)
Grn - 20 (N/C)
UKIP - 1 (-143)

Scotland (1,227/1,227 seats)
SNP - 431 (-7)
Con - 276 (+164)
Lab - 262 (-133)
Ind - 172 (-26)
Lib - 67 (-3)
Grn - 19 (+5)
Oth - 0 (N/C)

Wales (1,249/1,249 seats)
Lab - 472 (-107)
Ind - 322 (+11)
Plaid - 202 (+35)
Con - 184 (+80)
Oth - 6 (-7)
Grn - 1 (+1)
UKIP - 0 (-2)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

County Durham (LAB hold):

Labour 74 (-20)
Independent 28 (+9)
Liberal Democrat 14 (+5)
Conservative 10 (+6)

Kinda lame Tory performance here considering.

This result means there will be some kind of centenary celebration in two years, incidentally.

[bore]

I know if you'd have told me this 5 years ago I'd have been horrified, and I know the results elsewhere are terrible, but given those last few years and the results in england I have to say I'm pretty chuffed with how Scottish Labour performed. Historically being the largest party in Cowdenbeath, Inverclyde, East Lothian and West Villages in Fife is pretty much Labour hold Jarrow, but still. I'll also admit to a bit of schadenfreude that the SNP got what was coming to them, even if their replacements will be just as bad, if not worse.

@ everyone here who keeps insisting that every council in Scotland will now be governed by ineffective pan-unionist anti-SNP coalitions:

that's just hyperbole, right? Is there any reason to assume existing SNP+Labour and SNP+Tory coalitions will suddenly break down? Also why assume they would't be viable elsewhere? Is this something that the parties specifically campaigned against, or something?

Yes, and there are obviously political reasons for the SNP pushing this.

The actual coalitions will vary based on the maths in each council area and the local political situation. I imagine that despite national commitments we will probably see all sorts of weird alliances, even if it is disguised under a minority administration with confidence and supply, but there's no reason to think that these decisions will be based exclusively on the constitutional issue.

In Edinburgh for instance, especially given the wide range of parties with substantial numbers of seats, and thus the large number of possible agreements, I'd be amazed if we ended up with a labour tory coalition. Take transportation, for instance, always one of the most important council issues, labour ran on extending the tram line, on keeping 10% of the transport budget spent on cyclists, on 20mph limits in most streets, whereas the conservatives ran implicitly against the first two, explicitly against the last and strongly in favour of spending a lot of money on potholes. Similarly, on council tax you have labour wanting to increase it, the tories to not increase it by anything more than a negligible amount. (In fact, on both of these issues the SNP positioned themselves, as far as they positioned themselves on anything, pretty much slap bang in the middle of labour and the tories) There is pretty much nothing to agree on, apart from both being against independence referendums, which doesn't tend to be the responsibility of councils.

[Clyde1998]

Aberdeen City
SNP - 32.4% (+1.1)
Con - 24.7% (+15.0)
Lab - 17.7% (-12.0)
Ind - 15.2% (+4.1)
Lib - 7.4% (-7.7)
Grn - 2.2% (-0.3)
UKIP - 0.3% (+0.2)
Oth - 0.1% (+0.1)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but tees valley was a really shock, this is hard rock labour heartland since the 1930s but heavy leave area.

This isn't really accurate; it has a lot of sizeable towns of the sort that are normally Labour but not overwhelmingly (Darlington, Stockton, etc). It isn't all Middlesbrough.

[afleitch]

Worth noting that the Scottish results were pretty much what I expected in an STV system. As in 2012, regardless of how well the SNP perform (2011 and 2015/16) either side of council elections, the elections are pretty much a more even match. The only downside is the bartering to form administrations. That's entirely political and might not reflect what the public actually want.

[Clyde1998]

Glasgow City
SNP - 41.0% (+8.4)
Lab - 30.2% (-16.5)
Con - 14.6% (+8.7)
Grn - 8.7% (+3.2)
Lib - 2.9% (N/C)
Ind - 1.3% (-0.4)
Oth - 1.3% (-3.3)

[Clyde1998]

Angus
Con - 33.9% (+16.1)
SNP - 31.2% (-13.2)
Ind - 25.0% (+0.2)
Lab - 5.4 (-2.0)
Lib - 4.6% (-1.2)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but tees valley was a really shock, this is hard rock labour heartland since the 1930s but heavy leave area.

This isn't really accurate; it has a lot of sizeable towns of the sort that are normally Labour but not overwhelmingly (Darlington, Stockton, etc). It isn't all Middlesbrough.

what about Hartlepool, Redcar and Sedgefield?
Tories been toxic in those areas and came third in some parts last election

The parts of the Sedgefield constituency in the area covered by this new absurdity are in Darlington borough (and are the most Tory parts of both the borough and the constituency; wealthy commuter towns) and while e.g. Hartlepool has usually been Labour since the War it isn't bedrock in the way that (say) the Durham pit villages are. Not that I'm saying this is anything other than a poor result, it's just that the reality of Teesside and how it is generally depicted don't really match.

[Clyde1998]

Edinburgh City
Con - 27.7% (+8.0)
SNP - 27.0% (+0.1)
Lab - 18.4% (-9.8)
Lib - 13.6% (+4.3)
Grn - 12.4% (+1.0)
Ind - 0.7% (-1.2)
Oth - 0.2% (-2.6)

Estimated Turnout - 53.0% (+10.4)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Steve Fisher, the Oxford academic who works with Prof John Curtice on election analysis, says Theresa May is going into the general election with a bigger lead in projected national share (PNS - see 2.53pm) than Margaret Thatcher had before the 1983 and 1987 elections.

Not comparable as those local elections were not held during the campaign. In fact there's nothing to compare these ones to; very unusual situation. And someone bandying themselves about as an Academic Expert should bloody well know that. Not impressed.

[Clyde1998]

Dumfries & Galloway
Con - 36.7% (+10.1)
SNP - 21.0% (+1.5)
Ind - 20.2% (+2.1)
Lab - 17.9% (-11.4)
Lib - 2.4% (-1.5)
Grn - 1.6% (-0.2%)
Oth - 0.2% (-0.5)

Estimated Turnout - 48.5% (+4.5)

Dundee City
SNP - 42.0% (-1.4)
Lab - 20.6% (-9.5)
Con - 17.5% (+6.3)
Lib - 11.5% (+2.5)
Ind - 5.4% (+1.0)
Grn - 0.9% (+0.4)
Oth - 2.0% (+0.7)

Estimated Turnout - 41.3% (+4.6)