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  2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis
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Author Topic: 2000-2016 Trends: A comparison/map/analysis  (Read 2726 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: December 04, 2016, 03:18:02 am »
« edited: December 27, 2016, 10:03:00 pm by MT Treasurer »

2000-2016 Trend map



States with the strongest Democratic trends

1. Utah (Trend: 21.0% D)
2. California (Trend: 16.8% D)
3. Vermont (Trend: 14.9% D)
4. Alaska (Trend: 14.5% D)
5. Hawaii (Trend: 12.3% D)
6./7. Virginia (Trend: 11.7% D) and Colorado (Trend: 11.7% D)
8. Texas (Trend: 10.7% D)
9. DC (Trend: 9.0% D)
10. Oregon (Trend: 8.8% D)
11. Washington (Trend: 8.6% D)

States with the strongest Republican trends

1. West Virginia (Trend: 37.5% R)
2. Tennessee (Trend: 23.9% R)
3. Arkansas (Trend: 23.1% R)
4. Missouri (Trend: 16.9% R)
5. Kentucky (Trend: 16.3% R)
6. Oklahoma (Trend: 16.1% R)
7. Rhode Island (Trend: 15.2% R)
8. Alabama (Trend: 14.4% R)
9. Louisiana (Trend: 13.8% R)
10. Iowa (Trend: 11.3% R)

States with the smallest trends

1. South Carolina (Trend: 0.0% D/R)
2. New Hampshire (Trend: 0.1% D)
3./4. Arizona (Trend: 1.2% D)/Kansas (Trend: 1.4% R)
5. Massachusetts (Trend: 1.7% R)
6. Nebraska (Trend: 1.8% D)
7./8. Wisconsin (Trend: 2.5% R)/Minnesota (Trend: 2.5% R)
9./10. Florida (Trend: 2.8% R)/Mississippi (Trend: 2.8% R)
11. Montana (Trend: 2.9% D)
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2016, 11:31:28 am »
« Edited: December 27, 2016, 10:00:36 pm by MT Treasurer »

Btw, here are all the numbers:

National: 2000 → 2016: D+1.6

Alaska:  R+30.9 → R+14.8   → Trend: 14.5% D
Alabama: R+14.9 → R+27.7 → Trend: 14.4% R
Arizona: R+6.3→ R+3.5 → Trend: 1.2% D
Arkansas: R+5.4 → R+26.9 → Trend: 23.1% R
California: D+11.8 → D+30.2 → Trend: 16.8% D
Colorado: R+8.4→ D+4.9 → Trend: 11.7% D
Connecticut: D+17.5→ D+13.6 → Trend: 5.5% R
Delaware: D+13.1 → D+11.4 → Trend: 3.3% R
DC: D+76.2→ D+86.8 → Trend: 9.0% D
Florida: TIE → R+1.2 → Trend: 2.8% R
Georgia: R+11.7→ R+5.1 → Trend: 5.0% D
Hawaii: D+18.3 → D+32.2 → Trend: 12.3% D
Idaho: R+39.6→ R+31.8 → Trend: 6.2% D
Illinois: D+12.0→ D+17.1 → Trend: 3.5% D
Indiana: R+15.7→ R+18.9 → Trend: 4.8% R
Iowa: D+0.3 → R+9.4 → Trend: 11.3% R
Kentucky: R+15.1 → R+29.8 → Trend: 16.3% R
Kansas: R+20.8 → R+20.6 → Trend: 1.4% R
Louisiana: R+7.4 → R+19.6 → Trend: 13.8% R
Maine: D+5.1 → D+2.7 → Trend: 4.0% R
Maryland: D+16.4→ D+26.4 → Trend: 8.4% D
Massachusetts: D+27.3→ D+27.2 → Trend: 1.7% R
Michigan:  D+5.1 → R+0.2 → Trend: 6.9% R
Minnesota: D+2.4 → D+1.5 → Trend: 2.5% R
Mississippi: R+16.9→ R+18.1 → Trend: 2.8% R
Missouri: R+3.3→ R+18.6 → Trend: 16.9% R
Montana: R+25.0→ R+20.5 → Trend: 2.9% D
Nebraska: R+29.0→ R+25.6 → Trend: 1.8% D
Nevada: R+3.5→ D+2.4 → Trend: 4.3% D
New Hampshire: R+1.3→ D+0.4 → Trend: 0.1% D
New Jersey: D+15.8→ D+14.1 → Trend: 3.3% R
New Mexico: D+0.1→ D+8.2 → Trend: 6.7% D
New York: D+25.0 → D+21.2 → Trend: 5.4% R
North Carolina: R+12.8 → R+3.7 → Trend: 7.5% D
North Dakota: R+27.6→ R+35.7 → Trend: 9.7% R
Ohio: R+3.5→ R+8.1 → Trend: 6.2% R
Oklahoma: R+21.9→ R+36.4 → Trend: 16.1% R
Oregon: D+0.4→ D+10.8 → Trend: 8.8% D
Pennsylvania:  D+4.2→ R+0.8 → Trend: 6.6% R
Rhode Island: D+29.1→ D+15.5 → Trend: 15.2% R
South Carolina: R+15.9→ R+14.3 → Trend: 0% D/R
South Dakota: R+22.7→ R+29.8 → Trend: 8.7% R
Tennessee: R+3.9→ R+26.2 → Trend: 23.9% R
Texas: R+21.3→ R+9.0 → Trend: 10.7% D
Utah: R+40.5→ R+17.9  → Trend: 21.0% D
Vermont: D+9.9→ D+26.4 → Trend: 14.9% D
Virginia: R+8.0 → D+5.3 → Trend: 11.7% D
Washington: D+5.6→ D+15.8 → Trend: 8.6% D
West Virginia: R+6.3 → R+42.2 → Trend: 37.5% R
Wyoming: R+40.1→ R+46.3 → Trend: 7.8% R
Wisconsin: D+0.2 → R+0.7 → Trend: 2.5% R
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2016, 10:42:36 pm »


Yeah, interestingly enough, this looks very much like the 2012-2016 Trend map this year.
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« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2016, 10:43:59 pm »

Very interesting patterns, thank you for doing all of this.

Looking at the swing/lean R/D states, it looks like almost all of them followed both the same long term (2000-2016) and short term (2012-2016) trend with the exception of NV and NH.

NH has a long term trend of 0.2 Dem but a short term trend of 3.72 Rep.
NV has a long term trend of 4.4 Dem but a short term trend of 2.33 Rep.

I predict that the Dems will hold into Nevada by close margins in 2020 and 2024. New Hampshire is a true swing state in every sense of the word.
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Sbane
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« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2016, 02:37:53 am »
« Edited: December 06, 2016, 02:45:14 am by Sbane »

If this continues on, it would mean a natural Dem House majority (and control of a bunch of large states) with a major Republican advantage for everything else.  Sort of like the 1870's-1890's.

Why does this pattern portend a natural Dem House majority?

Also, looking at the medium-long term for Presidential elections, Texas and Florida are the key. If Democrats can get those two states on their side (along with perhaps Georgia and North Carolina), they can afford to lose the entire midwest minus Illinois.

Edit: Texas flipping is the tipping point though. That's when we likely see another realignment. Florida is also a wild card. Lots of minority growth but also lots of elderly Northeastern and Midwestern white growth as well. It always looks like Florida will vote more Democrat than the nation and then it doesn't happen.
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KingCharles
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« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2016, 02:49:51 am »

If this continues on, it would mean a natural Dem House majority (and control of a bunch of large states) with a major Republican advantage for everything else.  Sort of like the 1870's-1890's.

Why does this pattern portend a natural Dem House majority?

Also, looking at the medium-long term for Presidential elections, Texas and Florida are the key. If Democrats can get those two states on their side (along with perhaps Georgia and North Carolina), they can afford to lose the entire midwest minus Illinois.

I agree. Dems should target GA, AZ, NC, and FL in the short run and TX in the long run.
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2016, 08:36:19 pm »

A competitive 2024 map (assuming these trends continue):

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2016, 10:05:18 pm »

Clinton's national PV margin grew by 0.1% since I did this, so I have adjusted the numbers. SC now basically has a trend of exactly 0% R/D and NH has just a tiny 0.1% D trend.
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kydmb99
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« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2016, 09:46:36 am »

Amazes me how remarkably stable Florida has been. A state that I feel like should be leaning blue just hasn't done so.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2016, 10:42:34 am »

Amazes me how remarkably stable Florida has been. A state that I feel like should be leaning blue just hasn't done so.

Their white and minority electorates keep becoming more polarized, for some reason. I'm not sure why, exactly, since this isn't being seen in Georgia, or other swing southern states. (Maybe NC). FL whites voted 57-43% Republican in 2004 (or 2000), and voted 64-32% Republican in 2016. On the other hand Latinos swung from 56-44% Bush in 2004 to something on the order of 63-36% Clinton in 2016.

Consequently, FL is increasingly becoming racially polarized and so the GOP ekes out 2% wins, the Democrats take 2% wins here and there.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2016, 09:40:04 pm »

The better educated states are trending D, while the less educated states are trending R.
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blacknwhiterose
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« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2017, 01:11:17 pm »

Amazes me how remarkably stable Florida has been. A state that I feel like should be leaning blue just hasn't done so.

Their white and minority electorates keep becoming more polarized, for some reason. I'm not sure why, exactly, since this isn't being seen in Georgia, or other swing southern states. (Maybe NC). FL whites voted 57-43% Republican in 2004 (or 2000), and voted 64-32% Republican in 2016. On the other hand Latinos swung from 56-44% Bush in 2004 to something on the order of 63-36% Clinton in 2016.

Consequently, FL is increasingly becoming racially polarized and so the GOP ekes out 2% wins, the Democrats take 2% wins here and there.

I'd like to see data on senior citizens in particular.  I'll bet the >65 vote in FL has trended hard R since 2000. As recently as 2000 many white seniors were New Deal/FDR era types who were Yellow Dog Democratic.  Many of those seniors are under ground now or in assisted living centers watching wheel of fortune and going to bed at 6:30 on election days.  The newer batch of seniors retiring to Florida are Baby Boomers, and probably noticeably more Republican as a whole.   
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2017, 02:05:06 pm »

The better educated states are trending D, while the less educated states are trending R.

And the better educated are a less wealthy and less White group each year, why is this surprising?  Lurking variables.
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