New Zealand Election 2017

[Lachi]

Peters still dismisses the polls, calling them "wrong", and "junk science"
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/election-2017/338969/peters-dismisses-junk-science-polls

[mileslunn]

Holy S*** this is big if true.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/08/46799/labour-gap-women

Looks like also a very similar age divide to the most recent UK election the big difference is Labour is doing better amongst those in their 40s thus why ahead, but amongst seniors massive National lead while massive Labour lead amongst millennials.  I wonder what internal polls say since Ardern seems quite calm sort of looking like a frontrunner while English seems panicked like someone falling behind.  We will have to see if other polls confirm or disprove this one.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Link Broken

[mileslunn]

Link Broken

It shows Labour 45 to National 30. I will try and get another one but National at only 30 and Labour ahead by 15 that is massive and devastating for National. Off course this could be a rogue poll so let's see what others say.

[mileslunn]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/08/46848/election-15-days   Try this link and read through the whole thing it is near the bottom. The other got taken down and also removed on Wikipedia too.

[Kamala]

I'm on board with Jacindamania.

[mvd10]

I'm on board with Jacindamania.

I'm still waiting for Billmentum

What did the Nats do to deserve this clobbering with young people? There isn't a Brexit situation in NZ and Bill English hasn't beem campaigning on social conservatism right? Is it because of rising tuition fees and lack of affordable housing for young people (or other economic issues)?

[Lachi]

I think it's bullsh**t how Gareth can't get into the debates with 2%, but yet United Future can, and their numbers are so small most pollsters don't include them anymore.

[Lachi]

This poll is big news if it is true.

If the poll was to be accurate, Labour would even need Māori to form government, they could just get the Greens. Labour would have 56, and the greens would have 8 under this poll, which adds up to 64, with the Nationals not able to form government AT ALL.

[136or142]

I've been gone from here for awhile, so I haven't read over the posts, but, while good on Labour for promising to legalize abortion, after reading the platforms of both the Labour Party and the National Party, I fully endorse Damien Light and the United Future Party.

I now expect Future Mania.

I would suggest the slogan "if you don't have a United Future, you'll have a divided future."

[Lachi]

I've been gone from here for awhile, so I haven't read over the posts, but, while good on Labour for promising to legalize abortion, after reading the platforms of both the Labour Party and the National Party, I fully endorse Damien Light and the United Future Party.

I now expect Future Mania.

I would suggest the slogan "if you don't have a United Future, you'll have a divided future."

UF's time was back in the late 90s, and early 2000s. They are dying, and will probably never go back into Parliament.

[136or142]

I've been gone from here for awhile, so I haven't read over the posts, but, while good on Labour for promising to legalize abortion, after reading the platforms of both the Labour Party and the National Party, I fully endorse Damien Light and the United Future Party.

I now expect Future Mania.

I would suggest the slogan "if you don't have a United Future, you'll have a divided future."

UF's time was back in the late 90s, and early 2000s. They are dying, and will probably never go back into Parliament.

This is unfortunate because The National Party is basically a follower of right wing supply side economics nonsense while, under Jacinda Ardern, the Labour Party is basically a follower of further left post Keynesian Bernie Sanders 'quasi socialist' type economics nonsense.

No political party in New Zealand is representing the sensible center.

[Pericles]

I think it's bullsh**t how Gareth can't get into the debates with 2%, but yet United Future can, and their numbers are so small most pollsters don't include them anymore.

The rules are that parties have to poll at 3% or more to get in, or have a seat in parliament. As United Future have a seat they get to be in the debates. It allows incumbents to get a fair hearing, but could also unfairly entrench incumbent politicians.

[parochial boy]

I'm on board with Jacindamania.

I'm still waiting for Billmentum

What did the Nats do to deserve this clobbering with young people? There isn't a Brexit situation in NZ and Bill English hasn't beem campaigning on social conservatism right? Is it because of rising tuition fees and lack of affordable housing for young people (or other economic issues)?

The youth vote in the UK was about far, far more than Brexit and Tory culture wars

[mvd10]

I'm on board with Jacindamania.

I'm still waiting for Billmentum

What did the Nats do to deserve this clobbering with young people? There isn't a Brexit situation in NZ and Bill English hasn't beem campaigning on social conservatism right? Is it because of rising tuition fees and lack of affordable housing for young people (or other economic issues)?

The youth vote in the UK was about far, far more than Brexit and Tory culture wars

I guess austerity also played a role, but May did much worse than Cameron with young voters. If it was about austerity or other economic issues the Tories should have imploded with young voters in 2015, and they still got 32% of the 18-29 vote. Maybe Corbyn energized young voters more than Ed did, but I think Brexit and culture wars were very big reasons for the Tory implosion with young voters.

[PoliticalShelter]

I'm on board with Jacindamania.

I'm still waiting for Billmentum

What did the Nats do to deserve this clobbering with young people? There isn't a Brexit situation in NZ and Bill English hasn't beem campaigning on social conservatism right? Is it because of rising tuition fees and lack of affordable housing for young people (or other economic issues)?

The youth vote in the UK was about far, far more than Brexit and Tory culture wars

I guess austerity also played a role, but May did much worse than Cameron with young voters. If it was about austerity or other economic issues the Tories should have imploded with young voters in 2015, and they still got 32% of the 18-29 vote. Maybe Corbyn energized young voters more than Ed did, but I think Brexit and culture wars were very big reasons for the Tory implosion with young voters.

Wasn't turnout extremely low amongst young voters in 2015? I don't think it was entirely about culture wars, because not only have young voters been disproponatly affected by austerity, but also if it was about Brexit and culture wars, why didn't the lib dems do better?

[parochial boy]

I'm on board with Jacindamania.

I'm still waiting for Billmentum

What did the Nats do to deserve this clobbering with young people? There isn't a Brexit situation in NZ and Bill English hasn't beem campaigning on social conservatism right? Is it because of rising tuition fees and lack of affordable housing for young people (or other economic issues)?

The youth vote in the UK was about far, far more than Brexit and Tory culture wars

I guess austerity also played a role, but May did much worse than Cameron with young voters. If it was about austerity or other economic issues the Tories should have imploded with young voters in 2015, and they still got 32% of the 18-29 vote. Maybe Corbyn energized young voters more than Ed did, but I think Brexit and culture wars were very big reasons for the Tory implosion with young voters.

We probably shouldn't sidetrack the thread - but there was a huge economic side to it; house prices and tuition fees being the most obvious factors, but also little things like job precarity, low wages, abolishing housing benefit for the under 25s at the same time as year-on-year real increases to pensions.

I mean, remember how little Corbyn/Labour even talked about Brexit during the referendum.

Look at this YouGov poll from August for example. The 18-24 group are far less likely to identify Brexit as the most important issue than older voters, and more likely to identify Education or housing. Obviously, comopulsory warning about cross tabs, but pretty much all polling is giving a similar picture.

[mvd10]

But these problems also existed in 2015 and young voters didn't bother to turn out. Corbyn would have done better than Miliband with young voters anyway, but the difference between 2015 and 2017 was huge. Anyway I'm looking at some polls from before the Brexit (ugh crosstabs...) and apparently young people already trended Labour before Brexit but after Corbyn's election so you're probably right. And I agree that we probably shouldn't derail the thread anymore .

[mileslunn]

But these problems also existed in 2015 and young voters didn't bother to turn out. Corbyn would have done better than Miliband with young voters anyway, but the difference between 2015 and 2017 was huge. Anyway I'm looking at some polls from before the Brexit (ugh crosstabs...) and apparently young people already trended Labour before Brexit but after Corbyn's election so you're probably right. And I agree that we probably shouldn't derail the thread anymore .

Agreed we shouldn't derail this although I think if this pans out there seems to be a trend where millennials at least in the English speaking world are trending heavily towards progressive parties.  Whether it be Justin Trudeau in Canada, Bernie Sanders in the US, Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, and now Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand there is a trend.  Each had their own unique reasons off course, but interesting trend nonetheless.  Now outside of the English speaking world you don't see this too much as I believe Merkel is still ahead amongst millennials although in France in the first round Melenchon won amongst millennials but Le Pen did just as well as amongst millennials as older voters although Fillon skewed heavily towards seniors.  I think in the Nordic Countries parties on the right do fairly well amongst millennials but could be wrong, although in the Netherlands Green Left despite coming in fifth I believe came in first amongst millennials.  So it is still interesting to see the trends and do cross country comparisons.

Another poll has Labour ahead 37 to National 34 but looks like this one is not removing the undecided voters as it doesn't add up to 100.

[MaxQue]

But these problems also existed in 2015 and young voters didn't bother to turn out. Corbyn would have done better than Miliband with young voters anyway, but the difference between 2015 and 2017 was huge. Anyway I'm looking at some polls from before the Brexit (ugh crosstabs...) and apparently young people already trended Labour before Brexit but after Corbyn's election so you're probably right. And I agree that we probably shouldn't derail the thread anymore .

The main difference is than Milibrand didn't focus on these issues in 2015, unlike Corbyn.

[Lachi]

Wait, is this supposed to be a bad thing?

Coming from the party that has implemented 18 new taxes in their time, this is extremely hilarious.

[mileslunn]

Wait, is this supposed to be a bad thing?

Coming from the party that has implemented 18 new taxes in their time, this is extremely hilarious.

All of them are dead too so not possible.  Still kind of silly and had the main party did this I think it would backfire rather than help.  The comments on facebook are mostly negative.

[Lachi]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11918231

Now, THIS is interesting, and quite a cool idea.

[DC Al Fine]

Quick question: How did Bill English get his job given that he led the Nats to a disastrous defeat in 2002?

But these problems also existed in 2015 and young voters didn't bother to turn out. Corbyn would have done better than Miliband with young voters anyway, but the difference between 2015 and 2017 was huge. Anyway I'm looking at some polls from before the Brexit (ugh crosstabs...) and apparently young people already trended Labour before Brexit but after Corbyn's election so you're probably right. And I agree that we probably shouldn't derail the thread anymore .

Agreed we shouldn't derail this although I think if this pans out there seems to be a trend where millennials at least in the English speaking world are trending heavily towards progressive parties.  Whether it be Justin Trudeau in Canada, Bernie Sanders in the US, Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, and now Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand there is a trend.  Each had their own unique reasons off course, but interesting trend nonetheless.  Now outside of the English speaking world you don't see this too much as I believe Merkel is still ahead amongst millennials although in France in the first round Melenchon won amongst millennials but Le Pen did just as well as amongst millennials as older voters although Fillon skewed heavily towards seniors.  I think in the Nordic Countries parties on the right do fairly well amongst millennials but could be wrong, although in the Netherlands Green Left despite coming in fifth I believe came in first amongst millennials.  So it is still interesting to see the trends and do cross country comparisons.

Another poll has Labour ahead 37 to National 34 but looks like this one is not removing the undecided voters as it doesn't add up to 100.

1) I wonder how much of this is due to immigration vs 'native' millennials rejecting their parents' politics.

2) What do you think this will mean for politics in ~20 years when millennials are middle aged, the boomers are dying off and a new generation is voting?

[Lachi]

Quick question: How did Bill English get his job given that he led the Nats to a disastrous defeat in 2002?

But these problems also existed in 2015 and young voters didn't bother to turn out. Corbyn would have done better than Miliband with young voters anyway, but the difference between 2015 and 2017 was huge. Anyway I'm looking at some polls from before the Brexit (ugh crosstabs...) and apparently young people already trended Labour before Brexit but after Corbyn's election so you're probably right. And I agree that we probably shouldn't derail the thread anymore .

Agreed we shouldn't derail this although I think if this pans out there seems to be a trend where millennials at least in the English speaking world are trending heavily towards progressive parties.  Whether it be Justin Trudeau in Canada, Bernie Sanders in the US, Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, and now Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand there is a trend.  Each had their own unique reasons off course, but interesting trend nonetheless.  Now outside of the English speaking world you don't see this too much as I believe Merkel is still ahead amongst millennials although in France in the first round Melenchon won amongst millennials but Le Pen did just as well as amongst millennials as older voters although Fillon skewed heavily towards seniors.  I think in the Nordic Countries parties on the right do fairly well amongst millennials but could be wrong, although in the Netherlands Green Left despite coming in fifth I believe came in first amongst millennials.  So it is still interesting to see the trends and do cross country comparisons.

Another poll has Labour ahead 37 to National 34 but looks like this one is not removing the undecided voters as it doesn't add up to 100.

1) I wonder how much of this is due to immigration vs 'native' millennials rejecting their parents' politics.

2) What do you think this will mean for politics in ~20 years when millennials are middle aged, the boomers are dying off and a new generation is voting?

Essentially because he just happened to be deputy leader.