New Zealand Election 2017

[Polkergeist]

Now with 900k election day votes counted

(advance vs election day)

National (45.5% vs 47.4%)

Labour (36.7% vs 34.3%)

NZF (7.1% vs 7.8%)

Greens (6.2% vs 5.5%)

[Tender Branson]

Wow, that's a landslide ... I thought Jacindamentum would be bigger.

[Polkergeist]

I don't know about a landslide for National they haven't won a majority in their own right.

Labour seems to have taken most of their gains from the Greens. Ultimately Jacindamentum was a left-facing phenomenon.

Back to turnout, the political scientist on One just said turnout had gone into the low 80's.

I guess what is remarkable about Nationals' vote tonight is that they kept a relatively high vote share when turnout rose.

[Polkergeist]

1.03M election day votes counted

(advance vs election day)

National (45.5% vs 46.9%)

Labour (36.7% vs 34.7%)

NZF (7.1% vs 7.8%)

Greens (6.2% vs 5.5%)

[Tender Branson]

By "landslide" I mean the fact that 2 weeks ago it looked like Labour was pulling ahead by as much as 5%.

Now they are down by 11% with 90% of the votes counted ...

[Lachi]

Every single ing kiwi who voted for the Nationals are ing sheep...

[Polkergeist]

By "landslide" I mean the fact that 2 weeks ago it looked like Labour was pulling ahead by as much as 5%.

Now they are down by 11% with 90% of the votes counted ...

Well yes by that definition, you are definitely right.

However when the economy is good generally change in leader is a bit of a sugar hit in the polls which fizzles out. See Schulz in Germany.

Ardern might have been able to hold on because the election was only 7 weeks away when she was elected leader, but it was not to be.

[Lachi]

Jacinda is about to speak.

[Polkergeist]

I wouldn't think tonight was a defeat for Labour. They may not form the next Government, but they have returned to the prime position on the centre-left. Before the change of leader that was in doubt.

[Lachi]

I wouldn't think tonight was a defeat for Labour. They may not form the next Government, but they have returned to the prime position on the centre-left. Before the change of leader that was in doubt.

Oh it certainly isn't a defeat. Their vote is up by 10%, and they've gained quite a few seats (13 seats to be exact).

I would easily take Winston in coalition if it meant that English was knocked out of government.

Also, turnout is ABYSMAL compared to the last election. Newshub reporting a 67% turnout, down from 77.9% at the last election.

[Polkergeist]

1.13M election day votes counted

(advance vs election day)

National (45.5% vs 46.6%)

Labour (36.7% vs 34.9%)

NZF (7.1% vs 7.9%)

Greens (6.2% vs 5.5%)

[Lachi]

They were commenting on Newshub that with the special votes, Labour could take 1 more seat from the Nats.

[Lachi]

I think one of the stories of the night is that the youthquake did not end up happening this year

[Polkergeist]

I wouldn't think tonight was a defeat for Labour. They may not form the next Government, but they have returned to the prime position on the centre-left. Before the change of leader that was in doubt.

Oh it certainly isn't a defeat. Their vote is up by 10%, and they've gained quite a few seats (13 seats to be exact).

I would easily take Winston in coalition if it meant that English was knocked out of government

"

The traditional centre-left parties in "the west" are made up of the of a voting coalition of the middle class social liberals and working class populists. In NZ those are represented by Greens and NZF.

Up until 7 weeks ago Labour had lost voters on a medium term basis to both Greens and NZF, they were losing the component parts of their voting coalition. Tonight many of these people came back to Labour.

Also its only Labour that can lead a coalition with both NZF and the Greens, however difficult it might be.

There is no way the Greens could be in a NZF led Government or vice versa.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, what happened to turnout ?

It was 78% in 2014 and now stands at 67% - with 99% counted.

Are there some additional votes counted later (those who registered to vote on election day) ?

But nonetheless, it seems turnout won't hit 70% ...

[Lachi]

I wouldn't think tonight was a defeat for Labour. They may not form the next Government, but they have returned to the prime position on the centre-left. Before the change of leader that was in doubt.

Oh it certainly isn't a defeat. Their vote is up by 10%, and they've gained quite a few seats (13 seats to be exact).

I would easily take Winston in coalition if it meant that English was knocked out of government

"

The traditional centre-left parties in "the west" are made up of the of a voting coalition of the middle class social liberals and working class populists. In NZ those are represented by Greens and NZF.

Up until 7 weeks ago Labour had lost voters on a medium term basis to both Greens and NZF, they were losing the component parts of their voting coalition. Tonight many of these people came back to Labour.

Also its only Labour that can lead a coalition with both NZF and the Greens, however difficult it might be.

There is no way the Greens could be in a NZF led Government or vice versa.

I'm not expecting them both to work together in a formal coalition with Labour, what would happen is that one of them would be in coalition with Labour, while the other would work in confidence and supply.

Yeah, what happened to turnout ?

It was 78% in 2014 and now stands at 67% - with 99% counted.

Are there some additional votes counted later (those who registered to vote on election day) ?

But nonetheless, it seems turnout won't hit 70% ...

The youth vote didn't end up turning out in a big way, it seems.

[Polkergeist]

Yeah, what happened to turnout ?

It was 78% in 2014 and now stands at 67% - with 99% counted.

Are there some additional votes counted later (those who registered to vote on election day) ?

But nonetheless, it seems turnout won't hit 70% ...

This the best sum I can do. I am willing to be corrected here

Votes counted at 11:40pm NZST: 2,151,966
Advance votes not counted tonight*: 238,695
Votes from overseas**: 40,000

Estimated final no of votes: 2,430,661

Voters on roll: 3,252,269

Estimated turnout: 74.5%

* Advance votes cast (1,240,740)  less advance votes counted (1,002,045)
** Number of overseas votes in 2014

[Polkergeist]

Actually I am pretty sure there are special votes cast on election day in NZ that need to be included in the above.

[DL]

What are the chances that the uncounted special votes could move one seat one way or the other? How close is National to a 59th seat or of falling back to 57 if the special votes skew one way or the other?

[Lachi]

What are the chances that the uncounted special votes could move one seat one way or the other? How close is National to a 59th seat or of falling back to 57 if the special votes skew one way or the other?

I think that it's more likely that the Nats go back one.

[Polkergeist]

What are the chances that the uncounted special votes could move one seat one way or the other? How close is National to a 59th seat or of falling back to 57 if the special votes skew one way or the other?

I think that it's more likely that the Nats go back one.

In the past overseas votes have taken a seat off National given it to either Labour or the Greens

[jaichind]

What are the chances that ACT joins a possible LAB-NZF-Green coalition?  If not does not this potential coalition have only a tiny margin of error even if NAT loses one more seat to be at 57 instead of 58.

[Lachi]

ACT would never join with Either Labour or Greens.

[Lachi]

LOL, Peters lost Northland. He's obviously back as a list MP though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wow, that's a landslide ...

It isn't a landslide, the government has only just about squeaked re-election. And they've done so in a way that, how shall we say, stores up trouble for next time round...