New Zealand Election 2017

[Lachi]

Wow, that's a landslide ...

It isn't a landslide, the government has only just about squeaked re-election. And they've done so in a way that, how shall we say, stores up trouble for next time round...

and even then, no one even knows if WINston will even want to form a coalition with the Nationals yet.
Winston literally is in total control of the future of the country, with his position of kingmaker.

[IceAgeComing]

I'm pretty sure that ACT won't be in government at all this time - they sounded like they were thinking of going into opposition when their leader was interviewed because of the... distaste that they have with Peters and vice versa.  Don't know how that bodes for their future since at every election since 2005 the Nationals have effectively gifted them an electorate seat in Epsom to get them in (although I'm pretty sure their majority was cut and the National vote was up this time) and if they aren't working together the Nationals might not do that next time.

[mvd10]

Every single ing kiwi who voted for the Nationals are ing sheep...

Why? As a right-winger I'm obviously bound to disagree with you but I thought the NZ Nats were much more palatable to the left than the Tories, Liberals or Republicans.

[Lachi]

Every single ing kiwi who voted for the Nationals are ing sheep...

Why? As a right-winger I'm obviously bound to disagree with you but I thought the NZ Nats were much more palatable to the left than the Tories, Liberals or Republicans.

I mean they were sheep in the fact that they swallowed the nationals blatant lies hook, line, and sinker.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why does Peters hate ACT? Is it ideological or is there something more?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Maori Party wiped out.

[DL]

Has there been any estimate Of how many New Zealanders split the vote between their constituency vote on their list boat in other words how many people or how many riding select a different party at the constituency level than they vote for at the national list level

[Frodo]

Looks as if we will have to wait until October 7 before we get the final results. 

[IceAgeComing]

The only likely difference between these results and the final results are that the special votes will take one, possibly two, seats from the Nats and give them to Labour and/or the Greens.  That won't affect the mathematical situation though; any Labour-led government would need to include both NZ First and the Greens to get a majority.

[Famous Mortimer]

The only likely difference between these results and the final results are that the special votes will take one, possibly two, seats from the Nats and give them to Labour and/or the Greens.  That won't affect the mathematical situation though; any Labour-led government would need to include both NZ First and the Greens to get a majority.

Labour was always going to need both NZ First and the Greens. I don't think any poll showed Labour and Greens alone winning enough.

The best case realistic scenario was that Labour came ahead of the Nationals and was seen as having a mandate, pressuring NZ First to join them.

Not only did Labour finish behind the Nationals though, the combined forces of Labour and the Greens won fewer votes and fewer seats than the Nationals alone.

The Nationals won this.

I can't see NZ First giving this to the objective runners up unless they get a super sweet deal and even then it would be surprising.

[Famous Mortimer]

Maori Party wiped out.

The seats reserved for Maori voters went to the Labour Party.

Maoris, like most minorities, vote centre left. The Maori Party backing a centre-right government (and flip flopping on privatization) was a dumb move.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The only likely difference between these results and the final results are that the special votes will take one, possibly two, seats from the Nats and give them to Labour and/or the Greens.  That won't affect the mathematical situation though; any Labour-led government would need to include both NZ First and the Greens to get a majority.

Labour was always going to need both NZ First and the Greens. I don't think any poll showed Labour and Greens alone winning enough.

I recall a poll that showed Labour/Greens/Māori with enough.

[Polkergeist]

Has there been any estimate Of how many New Zealanders split the vote between their constituency vote on their list boat in other words how many people or how many riding select a different party at the constituency level than they vote for at the national list level

Elections New Zealand does a report on "Split votes" but it is only available at the return of writs.

In 2014 31.6% of voters voted for different party for their electorate vote than their party vote.

They have breakdowns by party vote as well.

http://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/elect-splitvote-summary.html

In terms of the seats or ridings where the party that won the largest number of party votes was different to the party than won the electorate vote, I have listed them below as at the current count

(Electorate winner/Party Vote Winner)

ACT/National
Epsom

National/Labour
Maungakiekie
Nelson

Labour/National
Mt Roskill
Napier
New Lynn
Ōhāriu
Palmerston North
Port Hills
Te Atatū
West Coast-Tasman
Wigram

[Lachi]

Electoral commission saying that with special votes, turnout will be 78.8%

I call bullsh**t, considering how low it was last night.

[Polkergeist]

Here is the turnout calculation directly from the electoral commission.

The preliminary results are based on the 2,179,668 votes counted on election night, which includes 9,866 party informals (votes where the voter’s intention wasn’t clear).

Special declaration votes still to be counted are estimated at 384,072 (15% of total votes). This includes an estimated 61,375 overseas and dictation votes.

The total estimated votes (those counted on election night plus estimated special votes to be counted) is 2,563,740.

Voter turnout for the 2017 General Election is estimated to be 78.8% of those enrolled as at 6pm Friday 22 September.  This compares with a final 77.9% turnout of those enrolled in 2014.

Source: http://www.elections.org.nz/news-media/preliminary-results-2017-general-election

That was not much of a rise in turnout.

And another thing. National did benefit from the collapse of the Conservative Party vote. Most of the CP vote would have gone to National and a few percentage points of the National vote went to Labour.

It seems to have not been mentioned given the Conservative Party organisation collapsed a few years ago and has vanished from the radar since then.

So National's results are a bit less impressive than it seems...or their 2014 vote understated their position... take your pick.

[mileslunn]

It looks like Labour underperformed although I think in early August had you told most Labour supporters they would get 36% they would have then been quite happy.  Perhaps Jacindamania made some get over confident.  I think Labour was hurt by two things.  1.  Many progressives were afraid the Greens would fall below 5% so some voted strategically so the Greens wouldn't fall below 5%.  2.  The undecided vote which was quite high broke heavily in favour of National as it seems Nationals were still fairly popular and even if people liked Jacinda Ardern they weren't at the stage of throwing the bums out.  Otherwise Obama's win in 2008 and Trudeau's in 2015 were quite different as both were facing off against parties that had very low approval ratings thus why they succeeded where Ardern didn't.  If English had a 33% approval rating like Harper did in Canada or 25% like Bush did in the US, I suspect we would be talking about a Labour landslide.

My guess is probably National + New Zealand First but a Labour + Green + New Zealand First is certainly possible so otherwise Winston Peters will once again be kingmaker.

[136or142]

It looks like Labour underperformed although I think in early August had you told most Labour supporters they would get 36% they would have then been quite happy.  Perhaps Jacindamania made some get over confident.  I think Labour was hurt by two things.  1.  Many progressives were afraid the Greens would fall below 5% so some voted strategically so the Greens wouldn't fall below 5%.  2.  The undecided vote which was quite high broke heavily in favour of National as it seems Nationals were still fairly popular and even if people liked Jacinda Ardern they weren't at the stage of throwing the bums out.  Otherwise Obama's win in 2008 and Trudeau's in 2015 were quite different as both were facing off against parties that had very low approval ratings thus why they succeeded where Ardern didn't.  If English had a 33% approval rating like Harper did in Canada or 25% like Bush did in the US, I suspect we would be talking about a Labour landslide.

My guess is probably National + New Zealand First but a Labour + Green + New Zealand First is certainly possible so otherwise Winston Peters will once again be kingmaker.

From what I've read getting the Greens and New Zealand First into a coalition will be nearly impossible to pull off.

[Pericles]

It's because Jacinda made a big mistake in her 'captain's call' on tax in leaving open changes to the tax code before the 2020 election and then being forced to make a U-turn, as well as National's attacks on Labour, some of which were less than honest. That meant Labour blew their opportunity(unless they still get in with Winston).

[Dr. MB]

Wow, that's a landslide ...

It isn't a landslide, the government has only just about squeaked re-election. And they've done so in a way that, how shall we say, stores up trouble for next time round...

and even then, no one even knows if WINston will even want to form a coalition with the Nationals yet.
Winston literally is in total control of the future of the country, with his position of kingmaker.

I like the guy. I hope he chooses the Labour-Greens over National-Act.

[JonHawk]

I don't see NZ First going with Labour-Greens. Too much policy difference with the Greens and many NZ First voters can't stand them. Abolishing Maori seats is still quite possible since National also supports abolishing them unlike Labour.

Personally its better for NZ First to prop up a minority National government, but sit in the middle, but Winston is too power hungry for that.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Wow, that's a landslide ...

It isn't a landslide, the government has only just about squeaked re-election. And they've done so in a way that, how shall we say, stores up trouble for next time round...

and even then, no one even knows if WINston will even want to form a coalition with the Nationals yet.
Winston literally is in total control of the future of the country, with his position of kingmaker.

I like the guy. I hope he chooses the Labour-Greens over National-Act.

Well, ACT is pretty much out of the coalition. Things will look a bit worse for National once the special votes come in. If they drop 2 seats, that's a serious problem for National.

[Lachi]

Remember that both parties don't have to be in a formal coalition with Labour for them to have a majority. One party could join up with Labour, with the other party being there for confidence and supply.

[JonHawk]

Not sure Labour will wean itself off the Greens for a minority Labour-NZ First government. Still thinking its a National-NZ First government

[JonHawk]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97254904/potential-economic-sticking-points-between-national-and-nz-first

Reading this, i still think it will be a National-NZ First government

[Pericles]

The special votes will be counted by October 7. Winston will make his decision on October 12.