New Zealand Election 2017

[mileslunn]

Is there any reason Winston Peters is dragging this out so long?  I also wonder if this will make it easier to convince people to return to First Past the Post so they can avoid this in the future.  In addition with New Zealand First being mostly a Winston Peters' party and him being 72, I wonder if the party will disappear or become like ACT and United Future once he retires.  The question is does it benefit Labour or National more.  I would tend to think National since his support is strongest amongst older voters, but the platform is quite interventionist so could benefit Labour.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Nah, Kiwis are fine with the electoral system, much to the irritation of the establishment. And a party like NZF will always have a niche, even if it isn't NZF in particular. Heck, one could draw comparisons with the pre-MMP era Social Credit party, which was at some times very popular (although not enough to actually make it into parliament)

One of the weird things about MMP is although people often scaremonger about a huge number of minor parties and nutcases proliferating, New Zealand's party system has stayed relatively, well not stable exactly, but very much rooted in the traditional system. Especially now all the oddballs like the Maori Party have gone or been rendered as harmless puppets (i.e. the Greens making the steps into becoming a permanent annex of Labour and ACT being kept alive at the whims of National), you now have a good old "two and a half party" system.

[Sestak]

Nah, Kiwis are fine with the electoral system, much to the irritation of the establishment. And a party like NZF will always have a niche, even if it isn't NZF in particular. Heck, one could draw comparisons with the pre-MMP era Social Credit party, which was at some times very popular (although not enough to actually make it into parliament)

One of the weird things about MMP is although people often scaremonger about a huge number of minor parties and nutcases proliferating, New Zealand's party system has stayed relatively, well not stable exactly, but very much rooted in the traditional system. Especially now all the oddballs like the Maori Party have gone or been rendered as harmless puppets (i.e. the Greens making the steps into becoming a permanent annex of Labour and ACT being kept alive at the whims of National), you now have a good old "two and a half party" system.

It's only "good old" if you're a big fan of the "Half Party". I'd rather not have to rely on xenophobes to do everything.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't like NZF, but in the grand scheme of things they are relatively benign all things considered. In fact, I would say that National has been far nastier in its history (e.g. Muldoon's raids on Pacific Island workers and the Don Brash open appeal to Pakeha grievances). Even this election cycle, their basic platform was mainly about immigration from a numerical/economic point of view rather than potentially more toxic ideas about "values" that you hear all over the place in Europe (and more to the point, it was remarkably similar to what Labour and Greens were saying, so they can't complain too much).

[Lachi]

BREAKING:
Peters to annouce his decision tomorrow.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/10/live-updates-nz-first-nearing-a-decision.html

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

BREAKING:
Peters to annouce his decision tomorrow.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/10/live-updates-nz-first-nearing-a-decision.html

It's about damn time.

[mileslunn]

Any guesses.  While a bit contrarian, my guess is 60% chance he goes with National and 40% chance with Labour.  I think the inclusion of Greens will be the reason I lean towards National but really could go either way.

[Sestak]

Well, whichever party he goes with is the one I'm not supporting in 2020.

[Lachi]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/98031249/winston-peters-decides-national-labour-may-learn-fate-at-same-time-as-the-public

The announcement is expected this afternoon, but we are not being told if it will be early or late afternoon.

[Sestak]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/98031249/winston-peters-decides-national-labour-may-learn-fate-at-same-time-as-the-public

The announcement is expected this afternoon, but we are not being told if it will be early or late afternoon.

Grrrr.

Winston's showmanship is seriously starting to tick me off.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/avancenz/status/920802640245563392

Ugh now he might be delaying further.

Also this is just cruel: https://twitter.com/avancenz/status/920802860283052033

[mileslunn]

This is getting annoying.  Why is Winston Peters taking so long.  If they had FTFP instead of MMP Bill English would have won a majority assuming people voted the same way or perhaps maybe enough Greens and perhaps NZ First (I suspect they would have split evenly between the two) would have voted Labour to allow a Labour win but probably a National Majority albeit a smaller one would have occurred.  Either way a government would be decided by the people not one man. 

[Sestak]

This could mean something:

https://twitter.com/patrickgowernz/status/920852980693209089

Winston must be enjoying this so much. What an a**hole.

[Frodo]

I wonder if this is going to cost New Zealand First valuable support in 2020.  I have no doubt National and Labour (and the Greens) are going to remind voters of their attention-whoring come election time. 

[Sestak]

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[Sestak]

Just two quick questions for the all of you:

If Winston goes with National, does Jacinda resign?

If Winston goes with Labour, does English resign?

[mileslunn]

Just two quick questions for the all of you:

If Winston goes with National, does Jacinda resign?

If Winston goes with Labour, does English resign?

If Winston goes with National no Jacinda stays on as she dramatically improved the party's fortunes and with the government being 12 years old by 2020 her chances of winning will be even better.

If Winston goes with Labour, I don't think English will resign right away as he probably expects it to not last until 2020, but if by next fall the government is still in place and appears no chance of falling he may resign although polls will play a big role.  If he is trailing then he probably will, but if well in front he might try to make a comeback in 2020.

[Lachi]

Meanwhile, the NZ Herald is reporting that Labour is Peters’ first choice.

Anyone would think a heap of horse-trading is going on as the self-imposed deadline approaches (or has past, depending on whether you believe 5pm has taken us from Peters’ promised afternoon announcement into evening).

The Herald reports that the Green party is holding a meeting of delegates this evening, taken to be a sign that the third party in a potential Labour/NZ First/Green coalition is gearing up for government.

The number of ministerial and cabinet posts is also believed to be an issue in the negotiations between Labour and NZ First, with reportedly fewer posts on the table in the Ardern offer than that proposed by English.

[mileslunn]

I wonder if this is going to cost New Zealand First valuable support in 2020.  I have no doubt National and Labour (and the Greens) are going to remind voters of their attention-whoring come election time. 

New Zealand First is largely a Winston Peters' party as he is the only leader they have ever had.  Since he is 72, I doubt he will run again in 2020 so I would not be surprised the least bit if the party falls below the 4% mark.  I also think after this, especially if National wins a majority in 2020, they will have another referendum to switch back to FTFP to reduce the risk of this happening again.

[Sestak]

Literally the press is split on who he's going with.

God damn it Winston.

[Sestak]

The one good thing about them being split on the number of cabinet positions is that it looks like Winston probably hasn't been offered PM.

[Lachi]

James Shaw, NZ Greens leader:

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[Lachi]

The one good thing about them being split on the number of cabinet positions is that it looks like Winston probably hasn't been offered PM.

Winston did say that he never wanted the job anyway.

[Lachi]

The Guardian:
That suggestion earlier that the NZ First leader was waiting to crash the 6pm (4pm AEDT/6am BST) TV news bulletins is firming up, with several reports now that Peters is preparing his speech. To say what exactly we still don’t know.

[Sestak]

Announcement will be at the hour, per The Guardian.

(probably a little later than that; Winston will likely tease it as long as possible during his speech before announcing his decision)