New Zealand Election 2017

[mileslunn]

While still over three weeks and just one poll, Labour is now at 43%, National 41%, NZ First 8% and Greens 5% so that means when you factor in the margin of error a Labour-Green coalition might be plausible although I still am skeptical whether that will happen.  Certainly changing leaders has improved their fortunes, the question becomes has Ardern peaked too early or will the momentum continue.  It does seem though choosing a younger more charismatic type can turn around fortunes.  In Canada when Trudeau took over as Liberal leader the party went from third place to first place overnight while in Austria you saw a similar thing when the OVP went from third to first.  Still unless something dramatic happens I think there is a good chance New Zealand First will be the king makers.  Any idea which party they will lean towards?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Shocking new poll has Labour in the lead!

Labour 43%
National 41%
NZ First 8%
Greens 5%
TOP 1%
Māori 1%

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

While still over three weeks and just one poll, Labour is now at 43%, National 41%, NZ First 8% and Greens 5% so that means when you factor in the margin of error a Labour-Green coalition might be plausible although I still am skeptical whether that will happen.  Certainly changing leaders has improved their fortunes, the question becomes has Ardern peaked too early or will the momentum continue.  It does seem though choosing a younger more charismatic type can turn around fortunes.  In Canada when Trudeau took over as Liberal leader the party went from third place to first place overnight while in Austria you saw a similar thing when the OVP went from third to first.  Still unless something dramatic happens I think there is a good chance New Zealand First will be the king makers.  Any idea which party they will lean towards?

Damn, you just beat me.

NZ First's position is looking tenuous. Winston is trying to appeal to the rural areas north of Auckland in a strategy that reminds me of Trump going after the rust belt. Something tells me that he's scared of the 5% threshold and wants to secure at least one electorate. Speaking of that, the Greens are really close to the 5% threshold. Historically, they've lost a percent or two between polls and the actual results. If you're looking for a left leanings coalition, I'd throw your party vote to the Greens to make sure that they hit 5%.

A Labour-Greens-Māori coalition is looking possible. If Hone can win Te Tai Tokerau, he would probably be an overhang seat and I'd assume that he would favor a left leaning coalition. Throw him a bone and that's an extra seat. I'm guessing that Māori will end up with 2-3 seats.

As to Jacindamentum, she's still rising. I'm not sure how much further she'll rise as at least some of that rise is likely from cannibalizing the Greens. I won't be able to see the debate until at least tomorrow evening, so I won't be able to provide any insight on that for another 24 hours or so.

[Lachi]

Prediction:

Labour: 52
National: 50
NZ First: 12
Greens: 7
Māori: 2
ACT: 1

Most likely coalitions:
Labour-Green-Māori (61)
National-NZ First (62)
Labour-NZ First (64)

Labour now has more possible paths to a majority, while the Nationals MUST get NZ First on their side

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There really should be some mechanism by which sub threshold parties can have their wasted votes redistributed to bigger parties. (Unless it leads to some sort of Australian microparty vote farming situation)

That is, if you accept the logic behind thresholds to begin with, which I personally don't.

Also are there no Christian/Conservative parties running anymore? Man, that wing really is unlucky.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

There really should be some mechanism by which sub threshold parties can have their wasted votes redistributed to bigger parties. (Unless it leads to some sort of Australian microparty vote farming situation)

That is, if you accept the logic behind thresholds to begin with, which I personally don't.

Also are there no Christian/Conservative parties running anymore? Man, that wing really is unlucky.

I'm ok with thresholds, but 5% is a bit too high. Maybe 3%.

I think that the Conservative Party is still running, but they've collapsed entirely since 2014.

[parochial boy]

Speaking of the Conservatives, is the fact that Labour won the Napier electorate in 2014 pureky down to how well the Conservatives did in that constituency? Any reason they did? it seems to be a personal vote based on the level of ticket splitting - was Garth McVicar that noteworthy?

[DC Al Fine]

There really should be some mechanism by which sub threshold parties can have their wasted votes redistributed to bigger parties. (Unless it leads to some sort of Australian microparty vote farming situation)

That is, if you accept the logic behind thresholds to begin with, which I personally don't.

Also are there no Christian/Conservative parties running anymore? Man, that wing really is unlucky.

I'm ok with thresholds, but 5% is a bit too high. Maybe 3%.

I think that the Conservative Party is still running, but they've collapsed entirely since 2014.

Personally, I wish everyone would go full Netherlands. Threshold = 100%/number of seats

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Speaking of the Conservatives, is the fact that Labour won the Napier electorate in 2014 pureky down to how well the Conservatives did in that constituency? Any reason they did? it seems to be a personal vote based on the level of ticket splitting - was Garth McVicar that noteworthy?

Never heard of the guy before, but he seems to have been rather popular there. I'd be interested to see what would happen if NZ First stood a candidate there. They haven't stood anyone since 2005. Looking at the Wikipedia page, it looks like McVicar may have cost National that seat (not that that matters in MMP). National could take it back, but Nash is an incumbent and Labour's prospects are looking up.

[Zioneer]

Side note: Jacinda is a former Mormon, who left over over the church's social views in 2004.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Newshub/Reid Research Poll

Aug 22 to Aug 30

National 43.3% (-1.1%)
Labour 39.4% (+6.3%)
NZ First 6.6% (-2.6%)
Greens 6.1% (-2.2%)
TOP 1.9% (-0.1%)
Māori 1% (-0.5%)
ACT 0.6% (---)

Changes from Aug 2-8 poll.

Since WINston's superannuation (pension) "scandal" broke, his numbers have been on the decline. Historically NZ first has done better than their polls and the Greens have done worse, but apparently at least some of the pollsters have been attempting to compensate for that.

[Kamala]

Jacindamentum!

[mvd10]

Ew. Do the NZ posters/posters who know NZ politics well think the Nats would have done better with Key? Key was pretty popular. But it doesn't look like the Nats lost much, it looks like it's mainly Labour winning votes. And are there any polls on voting by income/education/age in NZ?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Newshub/Reid Research Poll

Aug 22 to Aug 30

National 43.3% (-1.1%)
Labour 39.4% (+6.3%)
NZ First 6.6% (-2.6%)
Greens 6.1% (-2.2%)
TOP 1.9% (-0.1%)
Māori 1% (-0.5%)
ACT 0.6% (---)

Changes from Aug 2-8 poll.

Since WINston's superannuation (pension) "scandal" broke, his numbers have been on the decline. Historically NZ first has done better than their polls and the Greens have done worse, but apparently at least some of the pollsters have been attempting to compensate for that.

Looking forward to the possibility of there only being two parties in parliament, just like the old days.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

NZ first holds an electorate seat, so they will be able to still claim list seats even if they slip below threshold.

The Greens really should have made that part of their initial deal with labour - to be granted a constituency somewhere so they also wouldn't have to worry about the threshold.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

NZ first holds an electorate seat, so they will be able to still claim list seats even if they slip below threshold.

The Greens really should have made that part of their initial deal with labour - to be granted a constituency somewhere so they also wouldn't have to worry about the threshold.

It would be foolish to assume that Northland is safe.

[IceAgeComing]

lets be honest; it'd be Labour, the Nats and the one ACT person who always seems to win

The future that we deserve

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is there a list of marginal seats anywhere? I know it's MMP so it doesn't matter so much but judging from the map of the last election there doesn't seem to be that many marginals.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Ew. Do the NZ posters/posters who know NZ politics well think the Nats would have done better with Key? Key was pretty popular. But it doesn't look like the Nats lost much, it looks like it's mainly Labour winning votes. And are there any polls on voting by income/education/age in NZ?

John Key was seen as rather charismatic, especially in comparison to his Labour counterparts that he faced in 2011 and 2014 (as well as Andrew Little). Bill English just doesn't have the magic touch. The consensus on reddit's NZ subreddit is that English was coasting off Key's popularity and Little's relatively boring persona. Perhaps the greatest thing that Little did for Labour was to step down when he did. Jacinda has brought great energy to the Labour campaign.

Labour has been gaining lots of votes, yes. Notably, NZ First and the Greens have been on the decline. One of the Greens co-leaders (Metiria Turei) resigned as co-leader is face of a benefits scandal dating back to the early 1990's. As of late, WINston has been embroiled in a scandal of his own; he was forced to pay back superannuation (Social Security/state pension) overpayments. I haven't spoken to any former NZ First supporters, but WINston and NZ First tend to do well with older folks. I can't imagine that they would like to hear that their leader was taking more than he should have been.

I can't say whether or not NZ First voters are going directly to Labour or if they're going to National and a similar number of moderate National supporters are going to Labour, but National has been relatively steady since #Jacindamentum began. They've lost a bit, but not nearly as much as Labour has gained.

I have not been able to find any breakdowns by demographics, which is extremely distressing. There is some polling for the Māori electorates, both individually for some (apparently we'll get the results for the other seats sometime before the election) and the 7 Māori electorates as whole, but that's about it, really. It's also debatable as to whether or not the other 50% or so of Māori voters who are registered in normal electorates will vote the same way.

NZ first holds an electorate seat, so they will be able to still claim list seats even if they slip below threshold.

The Greens really should have made that part of their initial deal with labour - to be granted a constituency somewhere so they also wouldn't have to worry about the threshold.

It would be foolish to assume that Northland is safe.

I would have to agree with you on this one. NZ First hadn’t ran a candidate in Northland since 2005. If you look at the 2015 by-election results, you’ll see that Labour got a whopping 4.7%. Funny things happen in by-elections and special elections. I would highly doubt that Labour will get that low of a result in three weeks. Northland is certainly a seat to watch, especially if NZ First continues to have issues. WINston is a sneaky critter though, I wouldn’t call his career over until he’s dead *and* buried.

As to the second part of CrabCake’s post, that would’ve been quite advantageous. Preferably somewhere in a city (there’s probably somewhere in Auckland or Wellington that would vote Green in the absence of Labour).

lets be honest; it'd be Labour, the Nats and the one ACT person who always seems to win

The future that we deserve

Well, it certainly wouldn’t be a United Future, now would it?

I would be surprised if the Māori party doesn’t get in, but at this rate, a four party parliament, with two giants and two ants would no longer shock me. I would be surprised (but not shocked) if neither Greens nor NZ First make it. The Greens have been worrying me though and that’s why I would suggest that left-leaning voters pick Green for their party vote to hopefully keep the Greens above 5% to have a better opportunity of Labour leading a government and keeping NZ First out if it.

Is there a list of marginal seats anywhere? I know it's MMP so it doesn't matter so much but judging from the map of the last election there doesn't seem to be that many marginals.

I swear that there used to be a list of them on the 2014 General Election Wikipedia page, but I am either mistaken or it was removed. The main electorate result list also isn’t sortable by margin, which irks me. I’d look for anything under 1,500 votes as a seat to watch.

Even though it is MMP, I’d definitely watch some of the seats. The 7 Māori electorates will be interesting given the relatively united front put on by Māori and Mana. Epsom (ACT’s lone seat) will be interesting as well. I’d watch Ohariu as well just to see what it does without Peter Dunne. As previously mentioned, Northland could also be interesting (and important if NZ First misses 5% as previously discussed)

The two Hamilton seats as well as Northcote (in northern Auckland) are regarded as bellweather seats. Hamilton West has not missed an election since the start of MMP in 1996 (only 7 elections, but that’s still better than the others). Hamilton East missed 1999 and 2005 in the MMP era, with Northcote missing 2005 as well.

Jacindamentum!

Indeed.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Thanks. Although I note there is only one National held electorate with a majority smaller than 1,500: Auckland Central.

(God, the margins on the some of the Suburban and Rural held National seats are enormous).

Also one of these days I would like someone to explain to me the patterns in the flag referendum. I see that all the electorates in favour of safe National ones, but why those ones? What was going on?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing to note: polling in New Zealand has historically tended to overestimate the Nationals (and since they've been a factor, also the greens) and to underestimate Labour and the various populist parties. Of course a tendency isn't the same thing as a rule.

[mileslunn]

One thing to note: polling in New Zealand has historically tended to overestimate the Nationals (and since they've been a factor, also the greens) and to underestimate Labour and the various populist parties. Of course a tendency isn't the same thing as a rule.

True enough, but you can see the opposite happen.  In the UK, pollsters tend to underestimate the Tories and overestimate Labour, yet last election the opposite happened.  In 2012 in the US, most pollsters overestimated Romney and underestimated Obama whereas in 2016 it was the reverse.  In Canada pollsters have a long history of underestimating the Tories and overestimating the NDP, but usually are pretty bang on for the Liberals.  In Ontario though I've found pollsters don't tend to underestimate a particular party, but rather tend to underestimate the governing party and overestimate the opposition.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Thanks. Although I note there is only one National held electorate with a majority smaller than 1,500: Auckland Central.

(God, the margins on the some of the Suburban and Rural held National seats are enormous).

Also one of these days I would like someone to explain to me the patterns in the flag referendum. I see that all the electorates in favour of safe National ones, but why those ones? What was going on?

There's a few more. Hutt South and Ohariu plus a couple of the Māori electorates were also under about 1,500. 1,500 is just BS number that seemed close, btw.

Couldn't really say anything to the flag referendum.

A 20,000 vote margin is huge considering that only 35,000 votes were cast in Selwyn (as an example). Fortunately, MMP does help take care of any issues that might be caused by these huge margins. Mangere is the only comparable electorate for Labour in 2014. Given Labour's increasing fortunes, we might see more like Mangere than Selwyn this time around.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yes, but I said Auckland Central was the only National held one. Given the polls, I wouldn't expect much Labour held electorates to be in danger of flipping.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Yes, but I said Auckland Central was the only National held one. Given that polls, I wouldn't expect much Labour held electorates to be in danger of flipping.

I swear I graduated college!