New Zealand Election 2017

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Arguably, it would be easier to form a two party "coalition" between Labour and NZ First, then one that requires the Greens as well.

Remember that labour (and the greens as well, for that matter) are running on anti-immigration message this time round, and that NZ First aren't directly comparable to similar populist right groups in Europe. They aren't too far apart, is all I'm saying (I.e. Them working together is not out of the realm of possibility, which would be very different in almost any European context, Greece aside).

NZ First was in coalition with Labour from 2005 to 2008 and with the Nationals from 1996 to 1998. Neither should really be out of the question at this point.

[mileslunn]

I know this is probably not the best question to ask, but do you think Jacinda Adern being young and good looking wins her any votes.  I know were supposed to vote on policy not looks, but people do vote on looks.  While not the only reason he won, it certainly helped Justin Trudeau and to a lesser extent you could say that with Macron.  Also if I am not mistaken played a big role in Sebastian Kurz taking the OVP in Austria from third in the polls to first.  So just wondering if that is part of it or is she just a better communicator with better ideas than Andrew Little.  One can go lots of younger voters without being good looking if their passionate (think Jeremy Corbyn or Bernie Sanders) and is her gains mainly from younger voters or across the age demographic?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A) Kurz is not good looking. And to be honest, the same goes for most politicians labelled as attractive - if a young person of average attractiveness spends all day around middle-aged career politicians they tend to look "attractive" by comparison, even if it's merely because they have a full head of hair or whatever.

B) I think people like something new in politicians.. Trudeau, Sanders and Corbyn don't look or sound like your typical politicians, for different reasons; and neither does Adern (her farm girl aesthetic is very different from what most female politicians, even those of a similar age, typically go for; which may be a slightly calculated move.

(Atlas Forum: come for the politics and maps, stay for bitching about foreign politicians hotness levels)

[mileslunn]

A) Kurz is not good looking. And to be honest, the same goes for most politicians labelled as attractive - if a young person of average attractiveness spends all day around middle-aged career politicians they tend to look "attractive" by comparison, even if it's merely because they have a full head of hair or whatever.

B) I think people like something new in politicians.. Trudeau, Sanders and Corbyn don't look or sound like your typical politicians, for different reasons; and neither does Adern (her farm girl aesthetic is very different from what most female politicians, even those of a similar age, typically go for; which may be a slightly calculated move.

(Atlas Forum: come for the politics and maps, stay for bitching about foreign politicians hotness levels)

Agreed looks shouldn't matter sadly enough in politics it seems charisma, looks, public speaking ability do play a major role in how people vote, I especially find that is true amongst younger voters.  I can definitely say living in Canada this played a role in Trudeau's win.  Harper was going to lose no matter what as people wanted him gone, but I think looks, charisma, and surname played a big role in them choosing Trudeau over Mulcair.

On another issue, I heard Bill English unlike John Key plans to raise the retirement age to 67 starting in 2037 and Winston Peters has said that would be a red line in forming a coalition that the retirement age remain at 65, so does that improve Labour's chances or do you think National would be willing to drop this to please New Zealand First as this wouldn't take effect for many years anyways.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

B) I think people like something new in politicians.. Trudeau, Sanders and Corbyn don't look or sound like your typical politicians, for different reasons; and neither does Adern (her farm girl aesthetic is very different from what most female politicians, even those of a similar age, typically go for; which may be a slightly calculated move.

I've been reading that Labour is trying to get back at some rural voters. Having Ardern run as something of a farm girl would help with that.

(Atlas Forum: come for the politics and maps, stay for bitching about foreign politicians hotness levels)

Amen.

On another issue, I heard Bill English unlike John Key plans to raise the retirement age to 67 starting in 2037 and Winston Peters has said that would be a red line in forming a coalition that the retirement age remain at 65, so does that improve Labour's chances or do you think National would be willing to drop this to please New Zealand First as this wouldn't take effect for many years anyways.

It could help Labour. One of WINston's biggest demographics is old people. Granted, a lot of them will be dead in 20 years, but I'd say that National would have to be flexible on that if they wanted NZ First's support.

In 2014, Labour supported raising the retirement age.

However, as of March of this year, they backed away from that and are supporting keeping the age at 65.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Roy Morgan finally come out with their poll conducted from July 31 to August 13.

National 42.5%
Labour 32.5%
NZ First 11.5%
Green 9%
Opportunities 2%
Māori 1.5%
ACT 0.5%

I'd guess that Greens are probably lower than 9 given their recent troubles. The length and age of that sample make it a bit hard to get a lot out of that poll, but Labour did gain 2% over the last Roy Morgan poll (Nation dropped by 0.5%, Greens dropped by 4.5%, NZ First gained by 3.5%).

Neither United Future nor Mana were polled in either the Roy Morgan poll posted here or the One News Colmar Brunton poll at the bottom of last page. United Future is dependent on Peter Dunne winning Ohariu, which is unlikely according to a poll of that electorate. To my knowledge, the Greens are not running a candidate in that seat.

Mana is dependent on Hone Harawira taking back Te Tai Tokerau from Labour's Kelvin Davis. Davis was recently named Labour's Deputy Leader and beat the incumbent Harawira back in 2014. I'm not really liking Harawira's chances at getting back in.

Mana and Māori have agreed to not stand multiple candidates in the Māori seats, which means that Māori isn't running anyone against Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau and Mana won't run anyone in the other 6 Māori (race, not party) seats. That could be good news for the Māori Party, who have done quite well in the Māori seats, often creating overhangs under New Zealand's MMP system.

The Opportunities Party (TOP) is a new party created by Gareth Morgan and is mostly centrist with some environmentalist tendencies. They've been struggling to take off. Without an electorate seat and only about 2% in the polls, they won't make it into Parliament.

ACT has been cemented in Epsom and Bill English has endorsed David Seymour of ACT in Epsom and Peter Dunne in Ohariu.

Of the aforementioned minor parties. I think that ACT has the best chance at being in Parliament post-election. Māori has a good shot. United Future should probably be writing their own obituary while they can. I don't like Mana's chance at winning back Te Tai Tokerau and TOP isn't likely to spin enough to get 3% more than their polling.

[Tender Branson]

A) Kurz is not good looking. And to be honest, the same goes for most politicians labelled as attractive - if a young person of average attractiveness spends all day around middle-aged career politicians they tend to look "attractive" by comparison, even if it's merely because they have a full head of hair or whatever.

The Austrian women disagree (polls show that Kurz does extremely well with the Austrian ladies, young and old):

Sebastian Kurz: Flawless Beautiful Son-in-Law, Grandson in Chief and Hero of the Old Ladies.

And he's popular with the ladies abroad:

[MAINEiac4434]

Kurz looks like an uglier Patrick Bateman.

[mileslunn]

I know looks shouldn't matter, but I only brought it up as I feel it does have an impact.  Anybody who watched Canada's last election would note there weren't a lot of people taking selfies with Thomas Mulcair or Stephen Harper, but many were with Justin Trudeau.  He is even nicknamed prime-minister selfie.  Off course I would argue oratory skills are just as big.  In many ways Obama's success can be attributed heavily to his oratory skills.  Off course you have some like Corbyn and Sanders who are old and not exactly the greatest speaker, but had great passions and thus able to invigorate the young.

Going back to New Zealand politics, I could be wrong, but it seems for left leaning parties how well they do depends heavily on their ability to mobilize younger voters who tend to lean to the left as opposed to older voters who are usually more conservative.  While probably not this extreme, in the last UK election Labour had a 40 point lead amongst millennials while Tories a 40 point lead amongst seniors and it seems amongst millennials image matters more than it does amongst older voters.  Perhaps maybe their politics are different, but in New Zealand politics do they have the strong age divide with younger voters favouring Labour and older favouring National or is it more like Germany where support is fairly even across age brackets?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Going back to New Zealand politics, I could be wrong, but it seems for left leaning parties how well they do depends heavily on their ability to mobilize younger voters who tend to lean to the left as opposed to older voters who are usually more conservative.  While probably not this extreme, in the last UK election Labour had a 40 point lead amongst millennials while Tories a 40 point lead amongst seniors and it seems amongst millennials image matters more than it does amongst older voters.  Perhaps maybe their politics are different, but in New Zealand politics do they have the strong age divide with younger voters favouring Labour and older favouring National or is it more like Germany where support is fairly even across age brackets?

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find any cross tabs.

Also, here's a new poll from UMR, which does internal polls for Labour.

National 40
Labour 37
NZ First 9
Greens 8

No minor party numbers, unfortunately.

3.6% MoE based on a 750 person sample. Labour is within the margin of error according to their internals.

[parochial boy]

Regarding Maori seats, iirc, Maori voters can choose to vote either in the Maori or the "normal" seat - is there any data on how many choose either? and what sorts of people choose which?

I assume that people voting in Maori electorates tend to be more traditionalist/more likely to be Maori speakers?

Also, correct me if I am wrong - but I've always thought of the Maori party as being fairly conservative on many issues, coalition government with the Nats and all, but allying with Mana seems to indicate otherwise?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Regarding Maori seats, iirc, Maori voters can choose to vote either in the Maori or the "normal" seat - is there any data on how many choose either? and what sorts of people choose which?

I assume that people voting in Maori electorates tend to be more traditionalist/more likely to be Maori speakers?

Also, correct me if I am wrong - but I've always thought of the Maori party as being fairly conservative on many issues, coalition government with the Nats and all, but allying with Mana seems to indicate otherwise?

Māori votes can choose either one. I'm not sure how "Māori" is classified in this case. Wiki says that 7 out of 70 (10%) of electorates are Māori electorates compared to the 18% of NZers that identify as Māori.

If anyone has some good demographic sources, those would be greatly appreciated. I would have to guess the same as you in terms of the type of Māori who vote in those seats.

As to the Māori party's overall position, there's definitely some conservatism, and I think it bears noting that National doesn't run in electorate seats. Above all, the Māori Party cares about Māori issues. I'm not sure how they'd fit on a two axis scale. The alliance with Mana seems to suggest that. Both parties care greatly about Māori rights and would like to advance them. I'm not sure that the alliance will be that successful for Mana (they haven't been registering in most polls), but not having to compete against Mana in the Māori electorate seats should be a boon to the Māori Party. Not having to run against a Māori Party candidate does give Harawira an outside glance at winning Te Tai Tokerau, but Kelvin Davis is now the incumbent and is the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party.

Since 2008, the Māori Party has supported the National government. From 2005 to 2008, Wiki says that the Māori Party abstained on supply and confidence.

[Tintrlvr]

Regarding Maori seats, iirc, Maori voters can choose to vote either in the Maori or the "normal" seat - is there any data on how many choose either? and what sorts of people choose which?

I assume that people voting in Maori electorates tend to be more traditionalist/more likely to be Maori speakers?

Also, correct me if I am wrong - but I've always thought of the Maori party as being fairly conservative on many issues, coalition government with the Nats and all, but allying with Mana seems to indicate otherwise?

Maori voters to my understand choose whether they want to be on the Maori electoral roll or the standard electoral roll when they register to vote, and seats are distributed based on the number of registered voters on the Maori rolls vs. the standard rolls. When a Maori voter shows up to vote, if they are on the Maori roll, they can only vote in Maori seats, and, if they are on the standard roll, they can only vote in the standard seats. Given the Maori percentage of the population vs. percentage of the electoral rolls, somewhat more than half of all Maori are registered on the Maori rolls.

The Maori Party is to my understanding a lot like other ethnic group-based parties around the world: ideologically malleable so long as they get pork for their ethnic group.

[Gary J]

The New Zealand Electoral Commission gives a brief history of the Maori seats and explains how the system works.

http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/maori-representation

To expand on this, based upon books I have read about New Zealand history.

In the 19th century New Zealand started out with a single voters roll, which any British subject who met a landowning qualification could qualify for. In theory the Maori could qualify but in practice few did because the Maori tradition of communal land ownership was incosistent with European ideas about how land could be owned by individuals.

The Maori became discontented over the amount of land settlers had taken over. The Europeans did not realise how discontented until the King Country War broke out. This was a big enough threat to the colony that Imperial troops had to be sent from as far away as India to reinforce the colonial militia.

As an emergency measure, so that the Maori could express their grievances by participating in politics and not have to resort to war, it was decided to create four Maori seats in the New Zealand legislature. This was originally intended to be a temporary measure, but the Maori liked the system and it was made permanent.

The Maori seats elected Maori members to a small legislature, so they could exercise significant political power. This distinguishes the New Zealand practice from that in South Africa, where all the members of legislatures had to be of European descent both before and after communal representatives were introduced into the House of Assembly.

The preamble to the Maori Representation Bill 1867 states:-

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.nzlii.org/nz/legis/hist_bill/mrb1867431247/

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Peter Dunne Quits Politics

Dunne is stepping down as leader of United Future and will not be running in Ohariu. He said that recent poll numbers influenced him.

[Lachi]

Peter Dunne Quits Politics

Dunne is stepping down as leader of United Future and will not be running in Ohariu. He said that recent poll numbers influenced him.

He has been in parliament for how long now, 33 years? I think that the tie is right for him to step down.

Anyway, that's +1 Labour.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Maori TV Election Poll of Māori Electorates

Labour 46.5% (+6.7%)
Māori 17.5% (---)
NZ First 13.8% (+5.2%)
National 9.5% (-2.6%)
Green 9% (+0.3%)
Mana 1.8% (-7%)
TOP 1.5% (+1.5%)

Undecided 4.9%

Percent changes are from this time during the 2014 campaign. 2,515 voters surveyed from July 11 to August 11. This is only among those registered in Māori electorates, not the Māori population as a whole.

[Tintrlvr]

The New Zealand Electoral Commission gives a brief history of the Maori seats and explains how the system works.

http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/maori-representation

To expand on this, based upon books I have read about New Zealand history.

In the 19th century New Zealand started out with a single voters roll, which any British subject who met a landowning qualification could qualify for. In theory the Maori could qualify but in practice few did because the Maori tradition of communal land ownership was incosistent with European ideas about how land could be owned by individuals.

The Maori became discontented over the amount of land settlers had taken over. The Europeans did not realise how discontented until the King Country War broke out. This was a big enough threat to the colony that Imperial troops had to be sent from as far away as India to reinforce the colonial militia.

As an emergency measure, so that the Maori could express their grievances by participating in politics and not have to resort to war, it was decided to create four Maori seats in the New Zealand legislature. This was originally intended to be a temporary measure, but the Maori liked the system and it was made permanent.

The Maori seats elected Maori members to a small legislature, so they could exercise significant political power. This distinguishes the New Zealand practice from that in South Africa, where all the members of legislatures had to be of European descent both before and after communal representatives were introduced into the House of Assembly.

The preamble to the Maori Representation Bill 1867 states:-

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.nzlii.org/nz/legis/hist_bill/mrb1867431247/

Seems like this matches my understanding.

One question I do have, though, is how they determine who is eligible to be registered on the Maori rolls. It sounds like anyone who says they are of Maori descent can register on the Maori rolls such that theoretically someone with no Maori descent could claim Maori descent on the Census and then register on the Maori rolls. Does anyone know if there is any oversight/regulation on who can claim to be of Maori descent?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Good to see that this will be United Future's last ever election. Hopefully it will be the same for the ACT.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

RIP UFNZ HP

[DC Al Fine]

Good to see that this will be United Future's last ever election. Hopefully it will be the same for the ACT.

Any polls for that one ACT seat?

[parochial boy]

The New Zealand Electoral Commission gives a brief history of the Maori seats and explains how the system works.

http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/maori-representation

To expand on this, based upon books I have read about New Zealand history.

In the 19th century New Zealand started out with a single voters roll, which any British subject who met a landowning qualification could qualify for. In theory the Maori could qualify but in practice few did because the Maori tradition of communal land ownership was incosistent with European ideas about how land could be owned by individuals.

The Maori became discontented over the amount of land settlers had taken over. The Europeans did not realise how discontented until the King Country War broke out. This was a big enough threat to the colony that Imperial troops had to be sent from as far away as India to reinforce the colonial militia.

As an emergency measure, so that the Maori could express their grievances by participating in politics and not have to resort to war, it was decided to create four Maori seats in the New Zealand legislature. This was originally intended to be a temporary measure, but the Maori liked the system and it was made permanent.

The Maori seats elected Maori members to a small legislature, so they could exercise significant political power. This distinguishes the New Zealand practice from that in South Africa, where all the members of legislatures had to be of European descent both before and after communal representatives were introduced into the House of Assembly.

The preamble to the Maori Representation Bill 1867 states:-

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.nzlii.org/nz/legis/hist_bill/mrb1867431247/

Seems like this matches my understanding.

One question I do have, though, is how they determine who is eligible to be registered on the Maori rolls. It sounds like anyone who says they are of Maori descent can register on the Maori rolls such that theoretically someone with no Maori descent could claim Maori descent on the Census and then register on the Maori rolls. Does anyone know if there is any oversight/regulation on who can claim to be of Maori descent?

If I read it right, it seems like you would indicate that you are maori when you register. I seem to remember that quite a few self-identified maori basically look white, and  I have no idea how and if they check someone's credentials

By the looks of it, about 55% of maori register in maori electorates.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's widely expected that when the government closes all the Treaty of Watangi settlements, the Maoiri seats will be phased out.

[mileslunn]

Jacinda Ardern just proposed free tertiary education.  Was this a hail mary moment or could this come back to bite her.  On the one hand much like with Corbyn's promise in the UK, I could see it bringing out more younger voters which would be good for Labour, but at the same time if the costs don't add up I could see National easily hitting them with the idea this is fiscally unsustainable.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

We're finally getting some Māori electorate results.

Te Tai Tonga
Rino Tirikatene (Labour) 57.1%
Mei Reedy-Taare (Māori) 22.1%
Metiria Turei (Green) 20.7%

Te Tai Hauāuru
Howie Tamati (Māori) 52%
Adrian Rurawhe (Labour) 39%
Jack McDonald (Green) 9.1%

Ikaroa Rāwhiti
Meka Whaitiri (Labour) 55%
Marama Fox (Māori) 39%
Elizabeth Kerekere (Green) 6%

Labour leads in 2, Māori leads in 1

There's still 4 more Māori electorates and it sounds like we'll be getting those numbers soonish.