The only likely difference between these results and the final results are that the special votes will take one, possibly two, seats from the Nats and give them to Labour and/or the Greens. That won't affect the mathematical situation though; any Labour-led government would need to include both NZ First and the Greens to get a majority.
Labour was always going to need both NZ First and the Greens. I don't think any poll showed Labour and Greens alone winning enough.
The best case realistic scenario was that Labour came ahead of the Nationals and was seen as having a mandate, pressuring NZ First to join them.
Not only did Labour finish behind the Nationals though, the combined forces of Labour and the Greens won fewer votes and fewer seats than the Nationals alone.
The Nationals won this.
I can't see NZ First giving this to the objective runners up unless they get a super sweet deal and even then it would be surprising.
