New Zealand Election 2017

[Lachi]

Labour should put Jacinda Ahern in charge, capture that Trudeaumagic

What do you think, now that it's actually happened?

[Lachi]

But being serious,

I still think the Nationals are still in a better position to form government, unless NZ First goes with Labour+Greens, which is highly unlikely, and would surprise me if they decided to form with them.

However, if Labour keeps climbing, and takes mostly from the Nationals, rather than the Greens, then I could see the potential for Ardern to become PM, with Green support.

NZ First WILL be the kingmaker, however.

[Lachi]

Poll shows Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) losing in Ohariu, the party's only seat.

If he is "Dunne", then that just strengthens NZ First's position of king maker.
(sorry for the absolutely horrible pun)

[Lachi]

Peter Dunne Quits Politics

Dunne is stepping down as leader of United Future and will not be running in Ohariu. He said that recent poll numbers influenced him.

He has been in parliament for how long now, 33 years? I think that the tie is right for him to step down.

Anyway, that's +1 Labour.

[Lachi]

Prediction:

Labour: 52
National: 50
NZ First: 12
Greens: 7
Māori: 2
ACT: 1

Most likely coalitions:
Labour-Green-Māori (61)
National-NZ First (62)
Labour-NZ First (64)

Labour now has more possible paths to a majority, while the Nationals MUST get NZ First on their side

[Lachi]

Who won the second debate in your opinion? 

I haven't watched it yet.

[Lachi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVUwhdX56oc

This poor little sod thinks Peters will be the next PM.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

[Lachi]

The media company who did the production for the debate is blocking all videos about the debate.

[Lachi]

From what I can see, one of the main points from the debate was that Steven Joyce's claim to Labour apparently having an 11 billion dollar black hole in their budget was exposed as complete and utter bullsht.

Yes, the same Steven Joyce that had this happen to him:

[Lachi]

Prediction (September 6)

Labour: 53 (+1)
National: 51 (+1)
NZ First: 10 (-2)
Greens: 6 (-1)
Māori: 2
ACT: 1
TOTAL: 123 (61/62 will be needed for a majority, due to overhang seats)

Most likely coalitions (no changes)
Labour-Green-Māori (61)
National-NZ First (62)
Labour-NZ First (64)

I am rating this election currently as a toss up, tilt National, but with both parties saying they would work with Winston Peters in some way, anything could happen.

[Lachi]

If NZ First falls by just 2, the Nationals WILL NOT be able to form a majority, as the Greens will not work with English.

I am now rating this election as Lean Labour

[Lachi]

When they asked who Ardern would work with, why the hell did they completely leave out Māori?! Labour-Green-Māori makes up a majority.

Also, Nationals still peddling their bullsh**t "Labour has a budget black hole"

This is going to destroy the Nationals.

[Lachi]

The stuff poll on who won the debate:


Of course it's just an online poll, but the consensus across the country is that Ardern won.

[Lachi]

Peters still dismisses the polls, calling them "wrong", and "junk science"
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/election-2017/338969/peters-dismisses-junk-science-polls

[Lachi]

I think it's bullsh**t how Gareth can't get into the debates with 2%, but yet United Future can, and their numbers are so small most pollsters don't include them anymore.

[Lachi]

This poll is big news if it is true.

If the poll was to be accurate, Labour would even need Māori to form government, they could just get the Greens. Labour would have 56, and the greens would have 8 under this poll, which adds up to 64, with the Nationals not able to form government AT ALL.

[Lachi]

I've been gone from here for awhile, so I haven't read over the posts, but, while good on Labour for promising to legalize abortion, after reading the platforms of both the Labour Party and the National Party, I fully endorse Damien Light and the United Future Party.

I now expect Future Mania.

I would suggest the slogan "if you don't have a United Future, you'll have a divided future."

UF's time was back in the late 90s, and early 2000s. They are dying, and will probably never go back into Parliament.

[Lachi]

Wait, is this supposed to be a bad thing?

Coming from the party that has implemented 18 new taxes in their time, this is extremely hilarious.

[Lachi]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11918231

Now, THIS is interesting, and quite a cool idea.

[Lachi]

Quick question: How did Bill English get his job given that he led the Nats to a disastrous defeat in 2002?

But these problems also existed in 2015 and young voters didn't bother to turn out. Corbyn would have done better than Miliband with young voters anyway, but the difference between 2015 and 2017 was huge. Anyway I'm looking at some polls from before the Brexit (ugh crosstabs...) and apparently young people already trended Labour before Brexit but after Corbyn's election so you're probably right. And I agree that we probably shouldn't derail the thread anymore .

Agreed we shouldn't derail this although I think if this pans out there seems to be a trend where millennials at least in the English speaking world are trending heavily towards progressive parties.  Whether it be Justin Trudeau in Canada, Bernie Sanders in the US, Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, and now Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand there is a trend.  Each had their own unique reasons off course, but interesting trend nonetheless.  Now outside of the English speaking world you don't see this too much as I believe Merkel is still ahead amongst millennials although in France in the first round Melenchon won amongst millennials but Le Pen did just as well as amongst millennials as older voters although Fillon skewed heavily towards seniors.  I think in the Nordic Countries parties on the right do fairly well amongst millennials but could be wrong, although in the Netherlands Green Left despite coming in fifth I believe came in first amongst millennials.  So it is still interesting to see the trends and do cross country comparisons.

Another poll has Labour ahead 37 to National 34 but looks like this one is not removing the undecided voters as it doesn't add up to 100.

1) I wonder how much of this is due to immigration vs 'native' millennials rejecting their parents' politics.

2) What do you think this will mean for politics in ~20 years when millennials are middle aged, the boomers are dying off and a new generation is voting?

Essentially because he just happened to be deputy leader.

[Lachi]

Here is an interesting point about the most recent poll:

If Māori do get 2 percent, and hold their electorate, under Sainte-Laguë, they would go on to win 3 seats, not just 2.

It hardly matters when it comes to forming government though, as a Labour-Green coalition would easily form a majority (56 and 8)

[Lachi]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/election-2017/news/article.cfm?c_id=1504338&objectid=11921278

I find this hilarious.

[Lachi]

Does New Zealand usually provide exit polls and if so how accurate are they?  If not how quickly do the results come in.  Since it will be midnight the day before for me on Friday, I am wondering if it is worth staying up for (usually I stay up until the bars close at 2AM on Fridays so 9 PM New Zealand time the next day) or better just to check in the morning.

No, there usually aren't exit polls.

The very first results usually take around 15-20 minutes to come in,

[Lachi]

I don't see anything that could have caused this seemingly random bounce for the Nationals.

[Lachi]

Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

Also Labour ahead by 15 in an earlier poll seems equally silly.  I suspect it's probably less than 5 points separating the main two.  I believe Colmar Bruton who is the most accurate will come out with one near the end of the week so interesting to see what they say.  If they show National pulling ahead then this could be onto something, but if they still show Labour ahead then probably a rogue poll.

Spot on with that 15 for Labour. I mentioned it in other posts in other sites/conversations. I don't trust that one for a moment.

I don't see anything that could have caused this seemingly random bounce for the Nationals.

Perhaps Joyce's $12 billion hole got to people? Also, apparently Labour has been somewhat secretive with their tax policy. Not sure that that adds up to a 10 point lead for National though.

Highly, highly unlikely, as this poll would have been taken entirely after it was exposed as a massive lie.