New Zealand Election 2017

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Good to see that this will be United Future's last ever election. Hopefully it will be the same for the ACT.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Newshub/Reid Research Poll

Aug 22 to Aug 30

National 43.3% (-1.1%)
Labour 39.4% (+6.3%)
NZ First 6.6% (-2.6%)
Greens 6.1% (-2.2%)
TOP 1.9% (-0.1%)
Māori 1% (-0.5%)
ACT 0.6% (---)

Changes from Aug 2-8 poll.

Since WINston's superannuation (pension) "scandal" broke, his numbers have been on the decline. Historically NZ first has done better than their polls and the Greens have done worse, but apparently at least some of the pollsters have been attempting to compensate for that.

Looking forward to the possibility of there only being two parties in parliament, just like the old days.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

NZ first holds an electorate seat, so they will be able to still claim list seats even if they slip below threshold.

The Greens really should have made that part of their initial deal with labour - to be granted a constituency somewhere so they also wouldn't have to worry about the threshold.

It would be foolish to assume that Northland is safe.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is there a list of marginal seats anywhere? I know it's MMP so it doesn't matter so much but judging from the map of the last election there doesn't seem to be that many marginals.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Thanks. Although I note there is only one National held electorate with a majority smaller than 1,500: Auckland Central.

(God, the margins on the some of the Suburban and Rural held National seats are enormous).

Also one of these days I would like someone to explain to me the patterns in the flag referendum. I see that all the electorates in favour of safe National ones, but why those ones? What was going on?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yes, but I said Auckland Central was the only National held one. Given the polls, I wouldn't expect much Labour held electorates to be in danger of flipping.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Link Broken

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hahaha that test was terrible and I couldn't answer half the questions because I would need more details about how things work in New Zealand before answering

Anyhoo...

TOP - 60% (looool)
Green - 59%
Labour - 57%
Maori - 49%
Mana - 46%
National - 46%
ACT - 45% (45 too high, the test is bad, see)
Legalise Cannabis - 44%
United Future - 42% (are they even running now?)
New Zealand First - 37%
Conservative Party - 32% (better)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I'm a strong believer in a form of the way that Ireland does things - the election of an impartial Speaker who is automatically elected without needing to contest a seat.  Ideally this would lead to the seat that they were elected to becoming vacant and there being a by-election in the constituency or the next person filling any list seat - would make sure that there were was no partisan change in the composition of parliament based on whoever is chosen as speaker.

I'm not a great fan of the system but for New Zealand there is an easy solution to this - ensure that the Speaker is a list MP.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Why don't people get that with MMP, there are no winners or losers until a government is formed.

There's still a lingering FPP mindset, and given that there hasn't been a situation where the biggest party lost, the automatic assumption is that the biggest party wins. Hopefully that is disproven this election.

Relevant historical comparison: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_general_election,_1948