New Zealand Election 2017

[mileslunn]

NZ First is right where WINston wants to be. It will be interesting to see if the Greens drop any further.

And drop they did.

National 44%
Labour 37%
NZFirst 10%
Greens 4%
Māori 2%
Opportunities 2%

Preferred PM
Bill English 30%
Jacinda Ardern 30%
Winston Peters 7%

Bad news for the Greens. They may get a dead cat bounce and get back above 5%, but they're not in a good way right now.

If they continue to stay below 5%, could some Labour vote strategically for them so as to increase the chances of Labour forming government since if the Greens get shut out, Labour has to rely on New Zealand First and considering ideological differences as well as possibly not having enough seats, not sure that would work.  While you cannot say anything for sure, I think a good night for Labour would be to form a strong opposition and then in 2020 win.

[mileslunn]

I know this is probably not the best question to ask, but do you think Jacinda Adern being young and good looking wins her any votes.  I know were supposed to vote on policy not looks, but people do vote on looks.  While not the only reason he won, it certainly helped Justin Trudeau and to a lesser extent you could say that with Macron.  Also if I am not mistaken played a big role in Sebastian Kurz taking the OVP in Austria from third in the polls to first.  So just wondering if that is part of it or is she just a better communicator with better ideas than Andrew Little.  One can go lots of younger voters without being good looking if their passionate (think Jeremy Corbyn or Bernie Sanders) and is her gains mainly from younger voters or across the age demographic?

[mileslunn]

A) Kurz is not good looking. And to be honest, the same goes for most politicians labelled as attractive - if a young person of average attractiveness spends all day around middle-aged career politicians they tend to look "attractive" by comparison, even if it's merely because they have a full head of hair or whatever.

B) I think people like something new in politicians.. Trudeau, Sanders and Corbyn don't look or sound like your typical politicians, for different reasons; and neither does Adern (her farm girl aesthetic is very different from what most female politicians, even those of a similar age, typically go for; which may be a slightly calculated move.

(Atlas Forum: come for the politics and maps, stay for bitching about foreign politicians hotness levels)

Agreed looks shouldn't matter sadly enough in politics it seems charisma, looks, public speaking ability do play a major role in how people vote, I especially find that is true amongst younger voters.  I can definitely say living in Canada this played a role in Trudeau's win.  Harper was going to lose no matter what as people wanted him gone, but I think looks, charisma, and surname played a big role in them choosing Trudeau over Mulcair.

On another issue, I heard Bill English unlike John Key plans to raise the retirement age to 67 starting in 2037 and Winston Peters has said that would be a red line in forming a coalition that the retirement age remain at 65, so does that improve Labour's chances or do you think National would be willing to drop this to please New Zealand First as this wouldn't take effect for many years anyways.

[mileslunn]

I know looks shouldn't matter, but I only brought it up as I feel it does have an impact.  Anybody who watched Canada's last election would note there weren't a lot of people taking selfies with Thomas Mulcair or Stephen Harper, but many were with Justin Trudeau.  He is even nicknamed prime-minister selfie.  Off course I would argue oratory skills are just as big.  In many ways Obama's success can be attributed heavily to his oratory skills.  Off course you have some like Corbyn and Sanders who are old and not exactly the greatest speaker, but had great passions and thus able to invigorate the young.

Going back to New Zealand politics, I could be wrong, but it seems for left leaning parties how well they do depends heavily on their ability to mobilize younger voters who tend to lean to the left as opposed to older voters who are usually more conservative.  While probably not this extreme, in the last UK election Labour had a 40 point lead amongst millennials while Tories a 40 point lead amongst seniors and it seems amongst millennials image matters more than it does amongst older voters.  Perhaps maybe their politics are different, but in New Zealand politics do they have the strong age divide with younger voters favouring Labour and older favouring National or is it more like Germany where support is fairly even across age brackets?

[mileslunn]

Jacinda Ardern just proposed free tertiary education.  Was this a hail mary moment or could this come back to bite her.  On the one hand much like with Corbyn's promise in the UK, I could see it bringing out more younger voters which would be good for Labour, but at the same time if the costs don't add up I could see National easily hitting them with the idea this is fiscally unsustainable.

[mileslunn]

While still over three weeks and just one poll, Labour is now at 43%, National 41%, NZ First 8% and Greens 5% so that means when you factor in the margin of error a Labour-Green coalition might be plausible although I still am skeptical whether that will happen.  Certainly changing leaders has improved their fortunes, the question becomes has Ardern peaked too early or will the momentum continue.  It does seem though choosing a younger more charismatic type can turn around fortunes.  In Canada when Trudeau took over as Liberal leader the party went from third place to first place overnight while in Austria you saw a similar thing when the OVP went from third to first.  Still unless something dramatic happens I think there is a good chance New Zealand First will be the king makers.  Any idea which party they will lean towards?

[mileslunn]

One thing to note: polling in New Zealand has historically tended to overestimate the Nationals (and since they've been a factor, also the greens) and to underestimate Labour and the various populist parties. Of course a tendency isn't the same thing as a rule.

True enough, but you can see the opposite happen.  In the UK, pollsters tend to underestimate the Tories and overestimate Labour, yet last election the opposite happened.  In 2012 in the US, most pollsters overestimated Romney and underestimated Obama whereas in 2016 it was the reverse.  In Canada pollsters have a long history of underestimating the Tories and overestimating the NDP, but usually are pretty bang on for the Liberals.  In Ontario though I've found pollsters don't tend to underestimate a particular party, but rather tend to underestimate the governing party and overestimate the opposition.

[mileslunn]

So Trump and May (horrible people who ran horrible campaigns) win their elections while the NZ Nats (who had a decent track record) might end up losing? I f**king hate conservatives in 2017. Anyway, is there a chance that it will be an UK 2017-style landslide with young voters? Ardern does seem like someone who appeals a lot to young people (+ the free three years of tertiary education, but aren't most people aged 18-29 beyond that already?). Then again I don't think English is as toxic to young people as May (or Brexit) was in the UK.

It's not over and also New Zealand unlike the US or UK uses proportional representation so it will probably come down to whomever New Zealand First backs and they've formed governments with both and don't seem to be leaning in anyone direction.  There is a slight chance Labour-Green coalition may be possible, but at the moment looks unlikely.  As for youth turnout, hard to say but definitely possible.  Not just the UK, but also in Canada 2 years ago you saw a youth turnout surge for Trudeau.  In the US you saw it for Obama not Clinton so it does seem for parties on the left (not so much the right as they tend do better amongst older voters who always vote) turnout amongst millennials is key to their success.

[mileslunn]

New ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll

Labour - 43%
National - 39%
NZ First - 9%
Green - 5%
Māori - 2%
TOP - 2%
ACT - 0.1%

If those numbers hold I think a Labour-Green-Maori or perhaps even a Labour-Green coalition would be sufficient thus a progressive one whereas up until now it was assumed New Zealand First would be the kingmaker.  Under this would they be able to still form a National-New Zealand First as I cannot see the Greens going into coalition with National. 

Off course there is still over 2 weeks left and I suspect as the frontrunner Ardern will come under more scrutiny, so will the momentum continue resulting in a bigger labour win than expected or is this a case of Labour peaking too soon.  Will find out over the next little while which it is or perhaps maybe things will stabilize.

[mileslunn]

Holy S*** this is big if true.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/08/46799/labour-gap-women

Looks like also a very similar age divide to the most recent UK election the big difference is Labour is doing better amongst those in their 40s thus why ahead, but amongst seniors massive National lead while massive Labour lead amongst millennials.  I wonder what internal polls say since Ardern seems quite calm sort of looking like a frontrunner while English seems panicked like someone falling behind.  We will have to see if other polls confirm or disprove this one.

[mileslunn]

Link Broken

It shows Labour 45 to National 30. I will try and get another one but National at only 30 and Labour ahead by 15 that is massive and devastating for National. Off course this could be a rogue poll so let's see what others say.

[mileslunn]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/08/46848/election-15-days   Try this link and read through the whole thing it is near the bottom. The other got taken down and also removed on Wikipedia too.

[mileslunn]

But these problems also existed in 2015 and young voters didn't bother to turn out. Corbyn would have done better than Miliband with young voters anyway, but the difference between 2015 and 2017 was huge. Anyway I'm looking at some polls from before the Brexit (ugh crosstabs...) and apparently young people already trended Labour before Brexit but after Corbyn's election so you're probably right. And I agree that we probably shouldn't derail the thread anymore .

Agreed we shouldn't derail this although I think if this pans out there seems to be a trend where millennials at least in the English speaking world are trending heavily towards progressive parties.  Whether it be Justin Trudeau in Canada, Bernie Sanders in the US, Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, and now Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand there is a trend.  Each had their own unique reasons off course, but interesting trend nonetheless.  Now outside of the English speaking world you don't see this too much as I believe Merkel is still ahead amongst millennials although in France in the first round Melenchon won amongst millennials but Le Pen did just as well as amongst millennials as older voters although Fillon skewed heavily towards seniors.  I think in the Nordic Countries parties on the right do fairly well amongst millennials but could be wrong, although in the Netherlands Green Left despite coming in fifth I believe came in first amongst millennials.  So it is still interesting to see the trends and do cross country comparisons.

Another poll has Labour ahead 37 to National 34 but looks like this one is not removing the undecided voters as it doesn't add up to 100.

[mileslunn]

Wait, is this supposed to be a bad thing?

Coming from the party that has implemented 18 new taxes in their time, this is extremely hilarious.

All of them are dead too so not possible.  Still kind of silly and had the main party did this I think it would backfire rather than help.  The comments on facebook are mostly negative.

[mileslunn]

Here is a poll on how Chinese voters would vote, which I guess isn't too big of a surprise although in most Western countries usually the non-white vote tends to hurt parties on the right.  In the US the Chinese used to go heavily GOP but now heavily Democrat as the party has swung rightward.  Here in Canada they vary between Liberals and Conservatives, but never NDP.  I was wondering about other groups like East Indians or other Asians, do they also favour the National or do they favour Labour.  I suspect the Maori probably favour Labour.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11919332

Another poll shows most want NZ First to back a Labour over National government.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-kiwis-want-nz-first-go-labour-not-national

[mileslunn]

In the US the Chinese used to go heavily GOP but now heavily Democrat as the party has swung rightward.  Here in Canada they vary between Liberals and Conservatives, but never NDP. 

Actually in the recent BC election the NDP made major inroads among the Chinese and elected 4 Chinese MLAs and won several heavily Chinese ridings

True enough although very recent.  Seems though in New Zealand that isn't happening at least if the poll is correct.  I also think in BC its generational too as the NDP vote probably came mostly from Chinese millennials who were either born in Canada or came as children.  Amongst the older Chinese who came as adults I am pretty sure the BC Liberals won that cohort quite handidly.  Not sure the breakdown in New Zealand of those born there or not born there.

[mileslunn]

Does New Zealand usually provide exit polls and if so how accurate are they?  If not how quickly do the results come in.  Since it will be midnight the day before for me on Friday, I am wondering if it is worth staying up for (usually I stay up until the bars close at 2AM on Fridays so 9 PM New Zealand time the next day) or better just to check in the morning.

[mileslunn]

Seems like National has bounced back although it looks like the polls are a bit over the place.  One that has Labour up by 15 while this with National up by 10 so unless something dramatic happens this could be a rogue poll although we should have a better idea as the week progresses if others confirm the same.  On best PM not much change with English slightly ahead.  Bill English also commented their polls show them neck and neck (although he could be lying just to avoid complacency), but the reaction of the two leaders suggests their own internals show  things being tighter.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

Also Labour ahead by 15 in an earlier poll seems equally silly.  I suspect it's probably less than 5 points separating the main two.  I believe Colmar Bruton who is the most accurate will come out with one near the end of the week so interesting to see what they say.  If they show National pulling ahead then this could be onto something, but if they still show Labour ahead then probably a rogue poll.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

Also Labour ahead by 15 in an earlier poll seems equally silly.  I suspect it's probably less than 5 points separating the main two.  I believe Colmar Bruton who is the most accurate will come out with one near the end of the week so interesting to see what they say.  If they show National pulling ahead then this could be onto something, but if they still show Labour ahead then probably a rogue poll.

Spot on with that 15 for Labour. I mentioned it in other posts in other sites/conversations. I don't trust that one for a moment.

I don't see anything that could have caused this seemingly random bounce for the Nationals.

Perhaps Joyce's $12 billion hole got to people? Also, apparently Labour has been somewhat secretive with their tax policy. Not sure that that adds up to a 10 point lead for National though.

Highly, highly unlikely, as this poll would have been taken entirely after it was exposed as a massive lie.

I think Colmar Brunton who has a good track record comes out later this week.  If they show National surging ahead then it is probably a trend, but if they still show Labour in the lead then likely a rogue poll.

[mileslunn]

Here are the results of the test.  Not surprised I was closest to ACT but surprised National Party was last as I am generally on the right on economic issues although left on social issues so figured New Zealand First and Greens would be further down.

Parties you side with...










ACT
87%ACT
Electoral • Domestic Policy • Immigration • Science • Housing • Environmental • Social • Healthcare • Economic • Foreign Policy • National SecurityVote for


72%Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
National Security • Electoral • Education • Domestic Policy • Immigration • Housing • Social • Healthcare • Foreign PolicyVote for


Māori Party
67%Māori Party
Immigration • Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Social • Electoral • National Security • HousingVote for


New Zealand First
66%New Zealand First
Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Social • Immigration • Education • Electoral • HousingVote for


Green Party
65%Green Party
Housing • Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Social • Immigration • Domestic Policy • Electoral • National SecurityVote for


The Opportunities Party
65%The Opportunities Party
Immigration • National Security • Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Social • Domestic Policy • Housing • ElectoralVote for


Labour Party
63%Labour Party
Housing • National Security • Electoral • Immigration • Social • Healthcare • Foreign PolicyVote for


United Future
62%United Future
National Security • Electoral • Immigration • Social • Healthcare • Foreign PolicyVote for


Conservative Party
61%Conservative Party
Immigration • Foreign Policy • Economic • Healthcare • Education • Electoral • HousingVote for


61%Mana Party
Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Social • Immigration • Domestic Policy • Electoral • National SecurityVote for


National Party
56%National Party
Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Immigration • Electoral • HousingVote for

[mileslunn]

Colmar Brunton is coming out with a poll this evening so either it will confirm or disprove the recent Newshub poll showing National pulling ahead.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the newshub poll might be a rogue poll as Colmar Brunton has very different numbers.

They have

Labour 44
National 40
Green 7
NZ First 6
TOP 2

Best PM

Ardern 34
English 32

It will be interesting to have a third poll as I've found when polls disagree best to get another one as usually if two point in one direction and another one way the one that is off is probably wrong.  Anyways still close enough that National is not out of it and notwithstanding the Newshub poll Labour still is very much in the game and in fact a progressive one of Labour-Green may be a real possibility although far from certain. 

I was wondering what turnout is amongst millennials as my understanding is much like the last British election there is a big age gap with National well ahead amongst seniors but Labour well ahead amongst millennials.  Her move towards free tuition could help as that seemed to be what helped Corbyn do better than expected.

[mileslunn]

Roy Morgan should supposedly come soon. Very glad to see the Greens at 7%. 51% overall is very good, given that there will be some wasted party votes. I'm guessing 5% or so. Likely TOP's 2% or so, Mana's 0.5%, whatever bits UF gets, plus random single issue parties.

Later today or tomorrow?  Interesting to see which side it goes with or does fall in between the two.  The one area the two polls were consistent on was best PM as both showed the two very close and both in the low 30s.  Not sure about New Zealand, but I know at least here in Canada usually best PM tends to tilt towards the incumbent and anytime the incumbent falls behind they are in big trouble.  In 2015, Trudeau was only two points ahead of Harper on best PM yet won quite handidly mind you most who said Mulcair probably had Trudeau as their second choice.  I suspect most Greens prefer Ardern over English, but New Zealand First could go either way although since they are strongest amongst seniors I would tend to think more favour English over Ardern.

[mileslunn]

If the Roy Morgan poll shows similar numbers to Colmar Brunton, I think that it's become very likely that Ardern will be the next PM.

I think that Roy Morgan will release sometime early afternoon tomorrow.

Do you know what time they are supposed to come out with the poll?  It will be interesting to compare.  At this point I think the real thing is can Labour + Greens get a majority which means Ardern is next PM or do both parties have to rely on NZ First who could go to either side and not necessarily either which party gets most votes.