Landslide and calling the presidency

[JG]

Sorry if it has been asked before, but, in case of a landslide (Let's say, a Democratic candidate decisevely win VA, CO, MI, PA, WI, MN, FL, NC, GA, OH, IA, NH thus reaching 270 electoral votes before the polls close in CA, NV, WA and OR close) (I know that scenario is impossible in today's climate, but let's pretend it could happen), would they wait until the polls have closed on the west coast before announcing the winner in the tipping point state?

[brucejoel99]

No, the networks would call it as soon as they were sure.

[MarkD]

Sorry if it has been asked before, but, in case of a landslide (Let's say, a Democratic candidate decisevely win VA, CO, MI, PA, WI, MN, FL, NC, GA, OH, IA, NH thus reaching 270 electoral votes before the polls close in CA, NV, WA and OR close) (I know that scenario is impossible in today's climate, but let's pretend it could happen), would they wait until the polls have closed on the west coast before announcing the winner in the tipping point state?

I agree with Brucejoel99's answer, and why would that scenario be impossible? Today's political climate includes the fact that Trump's approval rating is constantly underwater. RCP has him at 44.6% approval and 52.6% disapproval. I say Trump could lose by a landslide.

[JG]

Sorry if it has been asked before, but, in case of a landslide (Let's say, a Democratic candidate decisevely win VA, CO, MI, PA, WI, MN, FL, NC, GA, OH, IA, NH thus reaching 270 electoral votes before the polls close in CA, NV, WA and OR close) (I know that scenario is impossible in today's climate, but let's pretend it could happen), would they wait until the polls have closed on the west coast before announcing the winner in the tipping point state?

I agree with Brucejoel99's answer, and why would that scenario be impossible? Today's political climate includes the fact that Trump's approval rating is constantly underwater. RCP has him at 44.6% approval and 52.6% disapproval. I say Trump could lose by a landslide.

Oh, I agree that it is not impossible that the Dems win a landslide. However, even in a landslide, I doubt that FL, GA, NC, OH and IA would be called before the polls close on the west coast.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think it would ever be possible to call it for a Dem before the West Coast closes, both because of how well the Dems do on the West Coast and how cities report their votes last in so many other states. 

It would be possible to call a Republican landslide quite early if they were, say, leading in all of the East Coast states.

[South Dakota Democrat]

They'd just call it when they were sure of who would win the state.  There is historical precedent - Bill Clinton won both times before the polls closed in the west.

[Mr. Smith]

Sorry if it has been asked before, but, in case of a landslide (Let's say, a Democratic candidate decisevely win VA, CO, MI, PA, WI, MN, FL, NC, GA, OH, IA, NH thus reaching 270 electoral votes before the polls close in CA, NV, WA and OR close) (I know that scenario is impossible in today's climate, but let's pretend it could happen), would they wait until the polls have closed on the west coast before announcing the winner in the tipping point state?

The actual tipping point  =/= the tipping point as called by networks.

In the past decade:

2008: Obama won precisely as the polls closed at 11 on the West Coast...but Colorado was still going.

2012: Obama was re-elected officially with Ohio, but Ohio still ended being closer than once again, Colorado

2016: The networks called it to Trump with Pennsylvania, after Wisconsin was called...this is because Arizona and Michigan were still going.

[emailking]

There was discussion of this in the days before the 2008 election, when it seemed like a possibility that Obama could clinch with called states before the West Coast closed. The network execs basically said they would have to call the race in that case.

As it turned out, he did not clinch before the West Coast closed. However, it was obvious to everyone for a couple hours that he was going to win, barring a state the networks had previously labelled "safe" flipping somehow. You could tell the on-air anchors were struggling not to acknowledge that it was over.

Note though, Hawaii still hadn't closed when it was called.

[South Dakota Democrat]

There was discussion of this in the days before the 2008 election, when it seemed like a possibility that Obama could clinch with called states before the West Coast closed. The network execs basically said they would have to call the race in that case.

As it turned out, he did not clinch before the West Coast closed. However, it was obvious to everyone for a couple hours that he was going to win, barring a state the networks had previously labelled "safe" flipping somehow. You could tell the on-air anchors were struggling not to acknowledge that it was over.

Note though, Hawaii still hadn't closed when it was called.

You mean Alaska.  Hawaii closes with the west coast states.

[emailking]

Oops, my bad.

[pbrower2a]

In 2008, Obama made it easy because he was winning a bunch of states with margins similar to those of Reagan in 1984 while losing a bunch of states with margins similar to those of McGovern in 1972. Once the networks called Ohio, there was just no reasonable way for McCain to win. The networks waited for the formality of the states on the West Coast to close, but they knew what was coming. The network that I watched said that as it called California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington that the margin of the popular vote was still razor-thin but that the numbers from the West Coast would make it a wide margin. Then the networks started calling Colorado, Florida, and Virginia. The networks had run out of votes in Ohio an hour and a half earlier. (All times are Eastern).

Figuring that it will not be Trump will not be the one to win a landslide, we might see early  indicators of a landslide against him. At 7PM (using red for D wins and orange for D leads, blue for R wins and orange for R leads, and white for near ties) but yellowing the results when states are called, we might see something like this at 7PM:

Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white

yellow -- next batch of states to be called

Kentucky is a surprise only in that the Trump lead, although beyond any chance of a Democrat winning it, is decidedly narrower than usual. Vermont was never in doubt. The media are questioning where the votes are coming from in the Southeast. Ordinarily the rural votes in Virginia come in early and the urban votes come in late, but the media want to be sure. Has Atlanta become unusually efficient in counting its votes? Indiana has over 60% of its votes in, but there is a big problem with that for guessing which way the wind is blowing in the Hoosier State.  The votes are largely already in from the Eastern Time Zone, and the polls just closed only in the northwestern and southwestern corners of the state.

But that is the limited information that anyone has at 7PM. There is some clear wisdom in precedent: that no Republican nominee since the 1920s has won a Presidential election in the Electoral College without winning Indiana by more than a 10% margin. Some votes may still be coming in from Indianapolis, Evansville, Gary, Hammond, and Michigan City... and those are not going to give Trump any 60-40 advantage.

At 7:30 two more states are closed, and  West Virginia, which goes by about a 57-43 margin for Trump as one reasonably expects and is an instant call.  Ohio gives no meaningful result quickly. Nothing really changes by 7:30 except that the rural vote is much weaker for Trump in the southeastern US than is usual. Virginia is usually a slow call for a Democrat, with the network news typically not calling it until the urban precincts give the Democrat a lead that the Democrat will not relinquish.

At this point Trump leads 13-3 in the Electoral College. That is as good as things will get for him.

Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white

yellow -- next batch of states to be closed
 

At 7:53 PM the networks quit biting their tongues on Virginia. They have decided that in view of the exit polls and the lackluster showing of Trump in rural votes, Trump has no chance of winning Virginia. At least he lost Virginia in 2016, so nothing really changes the narrative yet. The D lead in Virginia is about 6%, and it is not going to stay there as the urban precincts start reporting over the evening. The margin will get even worse! Meanwhile, the Democrat takes a slight, but indecisive lead in Ohio.

Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white

yellow -- next batch of states to be closed

(This is part of a series, and I will soon be doing the election from 8PM to 8:59 PM). Go ahead and comment on what you see so far if you wish.

[pbrower2a]

A diverse batch of states close at 8PM. It is obvious which states will be quick calls based on 2016 and other elections since 2004 (almost everything north and east of the Potomac, Illinois, Oklahoma, and the mid-South states So here we go:

[

Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white

yellow -- next batch of states to be called


... with the Deep South states a little closer than usual, but not within range of any Democratic wins. Oklahoma is about 55-45, which is a bit weak. As announcers catch their breath they make a pause to announce that South Carolina is called for Trump just about a minute into the new hour.  

Now come the more interesting states. ME-01 has been called for the Democrat, Maine at large is too early to call with about a 5% lead for the Democrat, and ME-02 is a few dozen points one way or the other. New Hampshire is going haywire against Trump, but with too few votes in to call.  Missouri is surprisingly close, with Trump holding onto a narrow 3% lead that he cannot trust. Florida gives a tiny early lead for the Democrat, but it is 4%. Trump is down 8% in Pennsylvania, but the night shall show whether he still has some magic left in winning a state that surprised many in 2016.


[

Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white


yellow -- next batch of states to be closed


There's plenty of drama left. At 8:30,  Arkansas is a quick call as Trump gets a margin in the high single digits. As if anyone cares, the margin in Kentucky has drifted into the double-digit zone. OK, that is not drama.



[

Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white


yellow -- next batch of states to be closed.

OK -- now for some drama. At 8:35 the margin has been shrinking for the Democrat in Georgia, but the state is running out of votes to count even faster. Georgia counts its votes fast, and it goes D to the consternation of Trump and his acolytes. By 8:50 Pennsylvania is going badly for Trump as the Philadelphia-area vote comes in strong and pushes the Democratic lead into into the double digits. At this point, Trump must win Florida (iffy), Michigan, Ohio (already iffy),  and Wisconsin. New Hampshire spirals into the zone of a double-digit lead for the Democrat. Maine at-large is called against Trump as the margin in ME-02 gets into the positive zone for the Democrat.  

Florida is... well, Florida. Indiana is a few hundred votes apart in the spread.

[

Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white


yellow -- next batch of states to be closed.

[pbrower2a]

Two of the largest states in electoral votes get closed, and so do the two states that Trump absolutely needs now that he has lost Georgia and Pennsylvania. At 9PM, one of the states closed is New York, and it rejects the Presidential nominee born there resolutely. South Dakota surprises only in being closer than usual, but it still goes for Trump, and so does Wyoming... by its standards. Louisiana votes like much of the Deep South -- you know how that goes.  Colorado and New Mexico are also early, quick calls against Trump. Minnesota might have been close in 2016, but not in 2020 -- it is double-digits again. Somewhat off the radar, Missouri has become a virtual tie , and Indiana registers a small lead (1.2%) for the Democrat. Trump has not made the kill in Kansas, as it gives him a flimsy lead that nobody can predict will stick because Kansas usually does not figure in a Presidential election. Arizona gives a slight lead for the Democrat... and Texas is too early to call because although the votes have come out from everywhere but El Paso and have been counted, the El Paso vote has yet to come in in big numbers. Trump begins with a slight lead in Texas -- but it might not stick.

Nebraska splits its vote by district. NE-03 in western and central Nebraska goes for Trump. NE-02 gives the Democrat a slight lead. NE-01 gives Trump a slight lead. Nebraska at large goes for Trump by about 9%, mostly because of NE-03   


[

Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white

Now come the states that come last in this batch because they are left to decide everything if they don't go for Trump. With very little vote coming in from the counties along the Wisconsin border but plenty of votes coming in from Detroit, Trump is down by 9%, and the numbers will only get worse for him. After Michigan, even  Wisconsin is anticlimax, and it is not quite so devastating to Trump... at 6%. As if it matters, margins for Trump are going into the double digits in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee.


[

About 9:20, North Carolina and Ohio are running out of votes.  Leads for the  Democratic nominee have stayed steady. The D margin just goes over 5% in Florida and President Trump tweets "Massive vote fraud!" The single outstanding electoral vote in Maine finally is decided.

The vote coming in in Missouri is now almost exclusively from Kansas City and St. Louis. You know how that goes.

Texas decides narrowly against Trump as the last votes seem to straggle in and goes by a margin less than 1%. For the first time in 44 years, Texas has voted for the Democratic nominee.


Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white


yellow -- next batch of states to be closed.

[pbrower2a]

At 10PM there are few surprises -- or significant prizes -- among states being called. The rural vote of Nevada is counted almost instantly, and it is clearly for Trump. The big vote in Nevada is in Las Vegas, which will decide Nevada. Iowa gives a quick, decisive lead for the Democrat, flipping the state as completely for the Democrat as Trump took it in 2016. North Dakota clearly goes for Trump. Montana is closer than anyone could have expected, but it still goes for Trump.

I'm putting Utah in tan due to an oddity that a third-party nominee can win.


[

Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white


yellow -- next batch of states to be closed.


A few loose ends get tied up. The remaining two congressional districts part ways, NE-01 barely going to Trump and NE-02 going against him. The final votes coming in in Missouri, Arizona, and Indiana settle 32 electoral votes against Trump. It does not take long for the urban vote to overpower the rural vote in Nevada, and by 11 PM Nevada is decided against Trump.




[

Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white


yellow -- next batch of states to be closed.

[pbrower2a]

At 11 PM, 82 electoral votes get posted quickly, and they go 78-4... you know how that goes. With no further ado:  

[

Margin 10%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 70% saturation
Margin 5-9.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 50% saturation
Margin 1-4.9%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 30% saturation
Margin under 1%+  D lead  D win  R win   R lead 20% saturation -- a razor-thin lead for anyone is in white


yellow -- next batch of states to be closed.

All that remains is Alaska, which goes for Trump. and a touchy situation in Utah that might not be decided in time for the meeting of the Electoral College.