OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Figueira]

I think the national environment will push Brown over the line. I could be wrong.

[I’m not Stu]

I think the national environment will push Brown over the line. I could be wrong.

Tossup with Mandel. Likely D with Gibbons.

[Zioneer]

Brown is favored, he's an excellent fit for the state and he's already beaten Mandel once.

[McGovernForPrez]

My guess is Mandel. I think Brown might be too liberal for a state like Ohio that generally elects moderates in both parties.

Just because it's a swing state doesn't necessarily mean it should be electing moderates. Brown is am excellent fit for Ohio. In a Trump midterm he should easily win.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My guess is Mandel. I think Brown might be too liberal for a state like Ohio that generally elects moderates in both parties.

Just because it's a swing state doesn't necessarily mean it should be electing moderates. Brown is am excellent fit for Ohio. In a Trump midterm he should easily win.

Nothing comes easy in Ohio anymore for us, we gotta WORK to keep this seat.

[Keep cool-idge]

50-48 Josh mandel but brown can win but since Ohio trended R like crazy and since he's the only dem in Ohio I would say the same in Florida as well but 50-47.5 Nelson

[McGovernForPrez]

My guess is Mandel. I think Brown might be too liberal for a state like Ohio that generally elects moderates in both parties.

Just because it's a swing state doesn't necessarily mean it should be electing moderates. Brown is am excellent fit for Ohio. In a Trump midterm he should easily win.

Nothing comes easy in Ohio anymore for us, we gotta WORK to keep this seat.

I agree. Any sort of midterm victory is gonna take blood sweat and tears.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Solid Lean D

[BuckeyeNut]

What Malcolm X said.

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

[Meatball Ron]

Good Sabato article on the history of Senate rematches. It doesn't have a ton of predictive value given the small sample size and other quirks, but still an interesting read and reaffirms that Brown probably has the edge, at least for now: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-sequels-the-history-of-upper-chamber-rematches/

[BuckeyeNut]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

[_]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

[UncleSam]

Can someone explain the 'Brown is a good fit for his state' meme to me?

Like seriously Brown is one of the more liberal senators in the caucus while coming from one of the more conservative states represented there. You can say he's a great campaigner, has unique appeal, etc etc but good fit for his state I have a hard time buying.

Mandel's campaign has stagnated in recent months and goes to show why declaring super early in a cycle can be a double edged sword. While I think Mandel will be a lot tougher than most Dems here probably think in their hearts (given the overwhelming lead for Brown in the poll), I do think Brown may be the slightest of favorites right now.

I think Mandel's floor is higher than Brown's, however. I doubt Mandel could possibly do worse than he did in 2012 given how hard Ohio has swung right and how much infrastructure he has already put in place there. Mandel seems a lot to Ohio like Hillary was to the country last year: massive, well-organized campaign with a vaguely dislikable figure leading it.

That being said Hillary won the popular vote in spite of her likability issues so it's an open question whether this analogy bodes ill for Mandel or for Brown (or neither?) as of yet. Of course it is not a perfect analogy by any means either haha

I think the range of outcomes goes from Brown + 5 to Mandel + 8, with more probability weight towards the Brown end of that range. I could easily see Mandel turning out Trump voters in Ohio though, Dems have become anathema to small town Midwesterners in recent years and Trump's tweets don't change that.

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

I think Dewines had enough of a break where he makes it a tough challenge for Brown, Taylor I think beats brown, she cant raise funds in a crowded primary but if shes it I think she can knock off sherrod.

Kasich couldnt win the primary.
Portman would slaughter Brown and drink from his skull on election night

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012?  You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign (and even hosted a frigging fundraiser for Brown in 2012 as well as appearing in an ad for his campaign in 2006), and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right?  This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate.

[Blackacre]

Can someone explain the 'Brown is a good fit for his state' meme to me?

Like seriously Brown is one of the more liberal senators in the caucus while coming from one of the more conservative states represented there. You can say he's a great campaigner, has unique appeal, etc etc but good fit for his state I have a hard time buying.

Mandel's campaign has stagnated in recent months and goes to show why declaring super early in a cycle can be a double edged sword. While I think Mandel will be a lot tougher than most Dems here probably think in their hearts (given the overwhelming lead for Brown in the poll), I do think Brown may be the slightest of favorites right now.

I think Mandel's floor is higher than Brown's, however. I doubt Mandel could possibly do worse than he did in 2012 given how hard Ohio has swung right and how much infrastructure he has already put in place there. Mandel seems a lot to Ohio like Hillary was to the country last year: massive, well-organized campaign with a vaguely dislikable figure leading it.

That being said Hillary won the popular vote in spite of her likability issues so it's an open question whether this analogy bodes ill for Mandel or for Brown (or neither?) as of yet. Of course it is not a perfect analogy by any means either haha

I think the range of outcomes goes from Brown + 5 to Mandel + 8, with more probability weight towards the Brown end of that range. I could easily see Mandel turning out Trump voters in Ohio though, Dems have become anathema to small town Midwesterners in recent years and Trump's tweets don't change that.

Basically, Brown plays well with a lot of the labor WWC types who pushed the state to Trump. He's also anti-free trade, which contributed to trump's appeal. And he has a record of listening to people. And he's personable. He's a liberal, but he's not a HRC-type. He's more Bidenesque. The Obama-Trump voters who delivered it to the President won't vote en mass for Mandel.

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012?  You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign, and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right?  This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate.

Yeah, if the supposed victim isn't on your side when you're making the allegations, and is herself denying that it happened, the allegations won't carry much weight. Especially against Trump.

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

I think Dewines had enough of a break where he makes it a tough challenge for Brown, Taylor I think beats brown, she cant raise funds in a crowded primary but if shes it I think she can knock off sherrod.

Kasich couldnt win the primary.
Portman would slaughter Brown and drink from his skull on election night

I'm not even 100% sure I agree about that, (Brown >>>>>>>>>>>> Strickland) but regardless IDK if it's even possible for a sitting Senator to run for a Senate seat that they don't already hold. Regardless, won't happen.

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012?  You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign (and even hosted a frigging fundraiser for Brown in 2012 as well as appearing in an ad for his campaign in 2006), and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right?  This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate.

I mean its not that nonsense and it wasn't made up by Mandel. She specifically made those allegations during their divorce. While it may have been she made false allegations or they've made up, they were made.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012?  You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign (and even hosted a frigging fundraiser for Brown in 2012 as well as appearing in an ad for his campaign in 2006), and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right?  This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate.

I mean its not that nonsense and it wasn't made up by Mandel. She specifically made those allegations during their divorce. While it may have been she made false allegations or they've made up, they were made.

And she's said repeatedly that it never happened and that her claims were words said in anger during a divorce.  She's consistently said that ever since the first time an amoral Republican tried to make an issue of it back when Brown was running for the House.  Then as now, pretty much everyone roundly condemned this exceptionally disgusting smear attempt.  Mandel has falsely accused Brown of beating his current wife as well, offering such damning evidence as "Hey, I heard you beat beat your wife" and "You can probably read about that all over the internet" (yes, those are direct quotes from Mandel).  I get that you may really not like Brown, but spreading blatantly false allegations of domestic abuse is about as low as it gets.  Even for a political smear campaign, that's incredibly sleezy and says a lot about those who are willing to sink to such depths.  Pretty disgusting, to say the least. 

[BuckeyeNut]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

[Rjjr77]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there.

[Kingpoleon]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

That's a similar situation to Trump's alleged sexual assault of his wife, right?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there.

What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself.  Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not.

[Roblox]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

Sherrod's ex-wife is a family friend and those allegations were exaggerations made as part of a very bitter divorce. They're both over it. Larke Recchie and Sherrod do fundraisers together for Pete's sake.

But they were made. They are in legal documents, and they exist. It's not made up, and it's not baseless since the accusations were made. You can argue he was falsely accused by his ex wife or that they've reconciled their issues, but the claims were made and are out there.

What you're doing right now (or rather trying to do) is pretty disgusting and you should really be ashamed of yourself.  Honestly, I thought you were better than this (admittedly a low bar), but I guess not.

Besides, little Josh attempted to bring the issue up in 2012 and it totally failed, with Brown's ex wife even coming out and endorsing brown.