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| | |-+  OH-SEN: And There Were 4
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Poll
Question: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race?
State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R)   -28 (26.7%)
U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D)   -77 (73.3%)
Other   -0 (0%)
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Total Voters: 105

Author Topic: OH-SEN: And There Were 4  (Read 20123 times)
Bagel23
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« Reply #200 on: July 10, 2017, 02:09:59 pm »
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Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter, a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel.

At least we have this going for us.
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« Reply #201 on: July 10, 2017, 02:15:42 pm »
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Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter, a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel.

At least we have this going for us.

The only Ohio polls out so far are Gravis and PPD. Both are bunk. That said, Brown needs to be on his A game, and as of now, he is.
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« Reply #202 on: July 10, 2017, 04:19:30 pm »
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Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter, a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel.

At least we have this going for us.

The only Ohio polls out so far are Gravis and PPD. Both are bunk. That said, Brown needs to be on his A game, and as of now, he is.

Brown's only setting is A-game mode Tongue
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« Reply #203 on: July 11, 2017, 06:34:43 pm »
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Trump heavily over-performed in the industrial Midwest last year, and that will revert to at least a tangible degree or more, which will affect Republicans accordingly. Can Mandel buck that trend AND make inroads from his 2012 showing?

The answer should be clear.
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« Reply #204 on: July 17, 2017, 03:50:35 pm »
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Mandel reports raising a paltry $1.3 million, half of what Brown raised. Mandel's CoH is now $3.3 million, Brown's is $6.7. It's early yet, but worth noting Mandel kept much better pace with Brown last cycle and took Super PAC money when Brown did not.
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« Reply #205 on: July 17, 2017, 04:08:18 pm »

Mandel reports raising a paltry $1.3 million, half of what Brown raised. Mandel's CoH is now $3.3 million, Brown's is $6.7. It's early yet, but worth noting Mandel kept much better pace with Brown last cycle and took Super PAC money when Brown did not.

Is Brown planning on taking super cash this time?
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« Reply #206 on: July 17, 2017, 06:38:54 pm »
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Mandel reports raising a paltry $1.3 million, half of what Brown raised. Mandel's CoH is now $3.3 million, Brown's is $6.7. It's early yet, but worth noting Mandel kept much better pace with Brown last cycle and took Super PAC money when Brown did not.

Is Brown planning on taking super cash this time?

Not that I'm aware. He's definitely going for the Bernie angle, his Facebook ads and some emails note the average contribution is $27.
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« Reply #207 on: July 18, 2017, 01:35:57 am »
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Mandel reports raising a paltry $1.3 million, half of what Brown raised. Mandel's CoH is now $3.3 million, Brown's is $6.7. It's early yet, but worth noting Mandel kept much better pace with Brown last cycle and took Super PAC money when Brown did not.

Is Brown planning on taking super cash this time?

Not that I'm aware. He's definitely going for the Bernie angle, his Facebook ads and some emails note the average contribution is $27.

However, much like Bernie, I would be surprised if he objected to the UAW (or someone's) PAC cutting an ad for him and running it.
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« Reply #208 on: July 18, 2017, 02:08:49 am »
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Trump heavily over-performed in the industrial Midwest last year, and that will revert to at least a tangible degree or more, which will affect Republicans accordingly. Can Mandel buck that trend AND make inroads from his 2012 showing?

The answer should be clear.

Thing is that, if we're comparing this to 2012, these are areas Mandel performed really poorly in; if he can make some consistent improvements in areas that Trump won by a lot (not necessarily even to the point of winning them outright), he's made up a great deal of the distance between him and Brown. He also doesn't really have much further to fall in Hamilton/Franklin Counties. "Midwestern rural areas" are also some of the places Trump is (at least, according to polling) holding up best, and it's exactly where Mandel hopes to make easy gains.

You have to remember that in 2012 Obama was pretty popular in Ohio and Kasich was pretty much at the bottom of a trough in approvals -- hated. Something that reversed itself astonishingly quickly. But even if Trump's approval patterns stay right about where they are now, Mandel still probably improves on his 2012 performance, to something like a 1-3 point defeat.
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« Reply #209 on: July 18, 2017, 06:33:44 am »
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Trump heavily over-performed in the industrial Midwest last year, and that will revert to at least a tangible degree or more, which will affect Republicans accordingly. Can Mandel buck that trend AND make inroads from his 2012 showing?

The answer should be clear.

Thing is that, if we're comparing this to 2012, these are areas Mandel performed really poorly in; if he can make some consistent improvements in areas that Trump won by a lot (not necessarily even to the point of winning them outright), he's made up a great deal of the distance between him and Brown. He also doesn't really have much further to fall in Hamilton/Franklin Counties. "Midwestern rural areas" are also some of the places Trump is (at least, according to polling) holding up best, and it's exactly where Mandel hopes to make easy gains.

You have to remember that in 2012 Obama was pretty popular in Ohio and Kasich was pretty much at the bottom of a trough in approvals -- hated. Something that reversed itself astonishingly quickly. But even if Trump's approval patterns stay right about where they are now, Mandel still probably improves on his 2012 performance, to something like a 1-3 point defeat.
Kasich's approval rating come election time 2012 wasn't awful, he began rallying in early 2012. Considering the slide they've started to slowly take now they probably aren't much different than they are at the moment
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« Reply #210 on: July 18, 2017, 07:02:24 am »
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Remind me how much Ossoff raised again

Seriously money is not going to buy elections, Brown needs a strong campaign message (which he has time to formulate) that is distinct from the national Democratic brand, which is not popular in Ohio or pretty much anyplace that voted for Trump

As for the notion that Trump winning Ohio big makes it more likely to 'regress to the mean'...that's obviously laughable. Democrats face an uphill battle in Ohio and Iowa at any level these days, and an increasingly difficult battle in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania. You'd think for how well versed Democrats are in demographics they would be able to see the obvious trends in these states away from them.
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« Reply #211 on: July 18, 2017, 10:28:35 am »
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Remind me how much Ossoff raised again

Seriously money is not going to buy elections, Brown needs a strong campaign message (which he has time to formulate) that is distinct from the national Democratic brand, which is not popular in Ohio or pretty much anyplace that voted for Trump

As for the notion that Trump winning Ohio big makes it more likely to 'regress to the mean'...that's obviously laughable. Democrats face an uphill battle in Ohio and Iowa at any level these days, and an increasingly difficult battle in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania. You'd think for how well versed Democrats are in demographics they would be able to see the obvious trends in these states away from them.

Ossoff's race was always unwinnable, and people rushed into it for the wrong reasons. It has nothing to do with this election. Frankly speaking, money's a pretty good barometer of support, and Republicans outraise Democrats in Ohio the vast majority of the time.

Sherrod's got a message, and it's not explicitly anti-Trump. See statements about how he, Portman, Capito, and Donnelly could fix ACA; or how he's excited to work with Trump on infrastructure and trade. Brown's an OG protectionist, people know it, and that position has always been to his benefit.

As for demographics, you have Democrats on the coast who see that states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are losing populations and say "what's the point in trying to get these guys back when the center of population is headed further southwest, and the average American is increasingly less white?" and then you have Democrats in those states who realize you need to make plays to the WWC to actually win, and that a 50-state strategy is the best strategy.

All that said, Columbus and its suburbs are pretty much the only parts of the state that are actually growing, and they're trending heavily to the left, despite still being pretty white.
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« Reply #212 on: July 18, 2017, 06:15:34 pm »
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Remind me how much Ossoff raised again

Seriously money is not going to buy elections, Brown needs a strong campaign message (which he has time to formulate) that is distinct from the national Democratic brand, which is not popular in Ohio or pretty much anyplace that voted for Trump

As for the notion that Trump winning Ohio big makes it more likely to 'regress to the mean'...that's obviously laughable. Democrats face an uphill battle in Ohio and Iowa at any level these days, and an increasingly difficult battle in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania. You'd think for how well versed Democrats are in demographics they would be able to see the obvious trends in these states away from them.

Sherrod Brown isn't a squirrelly looking 30 yo former congressional staffer running in an un-winnable district spending millions of dollars on ads in which he's looking down at a phone and tweeting.
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« Reply #213 on: July 18, 2017, 07:15:45 pm »
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Clinton did seven points better in GA-6 than she did in Ohio.

While she obviously had better net appeal in comparison to Trump in the former vs the latter, it is not believable to argue that GA-6 was 'unwinnable' while Ohio is (presumably) winnable.

Additionally, both of you seem to be missing the overarching point: money, past a certain point, does not help secure votes (and in some cases it can be actively detrimental). All that raising money shows is that a candidate is popular with the mainstream donor class of his or her respective party, which obviously is a good sign but is not nearly as big of a deal as people are making it out to be.

Of course, the reason people in this thread are making it out to be a big deal is that they like Sherrod Brown a lot, despise Josh Mandel, and cannot in their worst nightmare imagine how the latter could defeat the former.

The reality is that Republican-aligned voters now outnumber Democrat-aligned voters by almost 800,000 in the state, and that Democrats will need a massive turnout of low-propensity voters in 2018 COMBINED with a strong appeal to Obama-Trump voters in order to win. This is a difficult task.

If anyone is up to it, Sherrod Brown is. He has strong appeal in the Obama-Trump areas of the state (North coast and Mahoning valley areas in particular), and is popular with mainstream Democrats as well. He definitely has a chance, but it's hard for me to buy the argument he is anything better than a coin flip, at absolute best. Maybe the dynamics of the race will change (god knows there is a lot of time before the election) but if the vote were held today I'd happily offer 3-1 odds against Brown as a handicapper.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2017, 07:18:23 pm by UncleSam »Logged
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« Reply #214 on: July 18, 2017, 07:37:16 pm »
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Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter, a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel.

At least we have this going for us.

I wanted to ask you how you rate this race since you seem to be someone who doesn't believe that Sherrod Brown is invincible.
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« Reply #215 on: July 18, 2017, 07:46:08 pm »
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lol, k.

1: Ohio's a lot more elastic than the Georgia 6th. The Democratic ceiling is lower than the Republican one, but they're both high.

2: Tell Senator Portman that "money, past a certain point, does not help secure voters." What you're missing is:

2a: Mandel kept much better pace with Brown this time last cycle. Brown's the best Democratic fundraiser in Ohio since Glenn and Metzenbaum, and he's breaking records.
2b: Brown's fundraising -- unlike Mandel's -- is based in small dollar donations which is a good barometer of organic, grassroots energy.

3: Turnout was up slightly in Ohio, but it was down throughout NEOH, which is the Democratic base. Brown doesn't have Hillary's image problems and should have little difficulty bringing back Obama-Trump voters. They were his voters in 2012 and 2006, after all.

4: We have yet to see a good poll of Ohio. Mandel is unpopular with large segments of the OH GOP who see him as a careerist and an insider. Not a good brand to go out and win Trump, even if he uses his inflammatory rhetoric.

5: Brown is not invincible, but at this point, he is still favored to win re-election
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« Reply #216 on: July 18, 2017, 08:04:50 pm »
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I can't wait to see Sloppy Sherrod spent his way into the L column.

Magnificent Mandel will take care of him in 2018, trust me! 
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« Reply #217 on: July 18, 2017, 08:20:17 pm »
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I can't wait to see Sloppy Sherrod spent his way into the L column.

Magnificent Mandel will take care of him in 2018, trust me! 

Ok you seem like the Jimmie of this race for Mandel, but the polls so far have given you some reason to believe he's favored, but until I see like PPP or a non partisan pollster saying Mandel +3 or more i'm keeping it at Tossup.
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« Reply #218 on: July 18, 2017, 08:39:18 pm »
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I'm really excited for this race.  This could prove whether or not Ohio's quick trend towards the GOP was not just a one-time fluke. 
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« Reply #219 on: July 18, 2017, 09:00:11 pm »
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I can't wait to see Sloppy Sherrod spent his way into the L column.

Magnificent Mandel will take care of him in 2018, trust me! 

Ok you seem like the Jimmie of this race for Mandel, but the polls so far have given you some reason to believe he's favored, but until I see like PPP or a non partisan pollster saying Mandel +3 or more i'm keeping it at Tossup.

I'm definitely biased in favor of Mandel, but I'm also overdoing it a bit on purpose Tongue

Mandel has a better shot than most people think, imo, but it's too early to tell who is really favored at this point.
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« Reply #220 on: July 18, 2017, 09:31:04 pm »
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I can't wait to see Sloppy Sherrod spent his way into the L column.

Magnificent Mandel will take care of him in 2018, trust me! 

Ok you seem like the Jimmie of this race for Mandel, but the polls so far have given you some reason to believe he's favored, but until I see like PPP or a non partisan pollster saying Mandel +3 or more i'm keeping it at Tossup.

I'm definitely biased in favor of Mandel, but I'm also overdoing it a bit on purpose Tongue

Mandel has a better shot than most people think, imo, but it's too early to tell who is really favored at this point.

Well I like Mandel, seems like he is a decent enough fit for the state (Though may be a tad to the right).  This race will be interesting to see whether Conservative or Progressive populism triumphs when pitted against one another, and to see if Ohio is truly moving rightwards.
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« Reply #221 on: July 18, 2017, 09:54:45 pm »
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I don't think some of our non-Ohio blue avatars understand just how widely and intensely hated Mandel is by...well...pretty much everyone in Ohio Tongue
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« Reply #222 on: July 18, 2017, 10:09:35 pm »
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Magnificent Mandel reading the blue avvies on this thread:

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« Reply #223 on: July 19, 2017, 06:15:54 am »
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^^^ Geez, I'm glad I'll never have to bare the burden of losing my hair and still looking like a twelve year-old.



Anyway, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at one potential scenario that compares Clinton and Brown's previous vote totals. Essentially, I'm operating under a scenario where Brown is able to hold both his turnout and support levels at proportions identical to 2012 in the six largest county voting blocs.

At the same time, we assume that Brown's '18 vote share in the other 82 counties would be:

[Brown '12 margin - ([Clinton '16 margin - Brown '12 margin]/2)]

Simply put, we split the difference between Brown and Clinton's margins, assuming Brown only wins half of Brown-Trump voters and Mandel picks up the other half.

The end result is a nail-biter; 0.6 points in favor of Brown. In a presidential electorate, the margin is about 33,000 votes. I'd assume in a mid-term it'd be around 20-25k votes. If anything, this shows how important the urban clusters are going to be in this race.

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« Reply #224 on: July 20, 2017, 12:50:18 pm »
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This Mandel tweet speaks for itself.
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