OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[BuckeyeNut]

Guess we won't see Coughlin run for Senate, then. I'm frankly surprised Summit elected a Republican countywide, but 2013 probably for shadowed 2024, and Strckland lost it, IIRC.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

JD Vance is considering a run now. Seems like the sort of candidacy that maybe sounds good but ends up being disastrous. Would he even survive the primary?

[BuckeyeNut]

JD Vance is considering a run now. Seems like the sort of candidacy that maybe sounds good but ends up being disastrous. Would he even survive the primary?

Probably not, especially if Renacci does get in. You'd basically have two Kasich candidates and OG Trump supporter.

[The Other Castro]

Renacci is in, dropping out of Gov.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/10/ohios-u-s-senate-race-mitch-mcconnell-courts-j-d-vance-while-jim-renacci-looks-donald-trump-backing/1021728001/

[IceSpear]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

[BuckeyeNut]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

[IceSpear]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol

[BuckeyeNut]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol

No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol

No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million.

This.

[BuckeyeNut]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol

No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million.

This.

Furthermore, I'd like to point out that I for one always found Mandel a solid contender. (Even though I've also always though Sherrod was favored.) He was Trump before Trump.

[henster]

The sole reason why Renacci is a better candidate for Dems is he has a voting record Dems can attack while Mandel was just a State Treasurer with no voting record. Mandel could also run as an 'Washington outsider' while Renacci has been in DC for 8 years. Renacci seems like a sleazy businessman as well.

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[Kamala]

Renacci killed Grandma!

Also, is the district that he represents the same area Brown (and Sutton) did?

[IceSpear]

Renacci killed Grandma!

I'll believe this hurts him once Lyin Ryan faces consequences for his constant attempted grandma genocides.

[Heisenberg]

Is the district that he represents the same area Brown (and Sutton) did?

Yes, it does have parts of that old district. For the 2010 redistricting, OH-13 and OH-16 were mostly combined into one seat, with Renacci beating Sutton. Fun fact: It also made Renacci the only member of Congress to defeat two incumbents in consecutive House elections.

[Usili]

And Brown has fundraised 2.6M for Q4 totaling 9.8M in the bank for his campaign: http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180110/bring-it-on-renacci-sherrod-brown-announces-98m-bankroll

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[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol

No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million.

This.

Furthermore, I'd like to point out that I for one always found Mandel a solid contender. (Even though I've also always though Sherrod was favored.) He was Trump before Trump.

Let’s not get carried away, Mandel was a horrible candidate.

[Rjjr77]

Wow. His wife must have a really serious illness for him to drop out.

She's just about as ill as FitzGerald's son was when the whole Irish prostitute scandal dropped.

been gone for a bit, and Ohios blown up. My sources confirm Mandel's wife is genuinely ill

That being the case, I genuinely wish him and his family well.

The Cincinnati Enquirer has a nice piece on the state of the race.

TL;DR:

Rep. Renacci (OH-16) is essentially waiting for a phone call -- and endorsement -- from Trump.

Vance is being courted by Mitch McConnell, but seems unlikely to jump in.

Rep. Johnson (OH-06) is likely to jump in if he isn't made House Budget Chairman.

Gibbons is desperately trying to keep anyone with name ID and money from entering.

Sources close to Johnson say he is not running, a name to keep an eye on is State Senator Matt Huffman, who came close to pulling the trigger against mandel, and apparently has a bunch of donors lined up for a senate president bid.

Seems early to say Johnson isn't running, unless they know he's got the Chairmanship.

Tangentially related to Huffman: do you know what happened to Kevin Coughlin?

Coughlin went after Summit GOP chair the late Alex Arshnikof, it cost him his career. He was Stow Clerk of Courts for a brief stay before losing a squeaker in 2015, hes now disappeared.

Johnson is not running, I have it confirmed.

[BuckeyeNut]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol

No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million.

This.

Furthermore, I'd like to point out that I for one always found Mandel a solid contender. (Even though I've also always though Sherrod was favored.) He was Trump before Trump.

Let’s not get carried away, Mandel was a horrible candidate.

He wasn't great, but I am taking nothing for granted.

[TJ in Oregon]

Renacci might not be the perfect candidate but he's almost certainly a better candidate than Mandel.

It is a shame the reason why Mandel had to drop out though.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Renacci's entry will not change my Lean D rating, at least not right away. Brown will start out with a massive fundraising advantage and several months head start on campaigning for this particular race. I will of course be watching for actual polling to further clarify the state of the race.

[Bismarck]

Renacci's entry will not change my Lean D rating, at least not right away. Brown will start out with a massive fundraising advantage and several months head start on campaigning for this particular race. I will of course be watching for actual polling to further clarify the state of the race.

As of right now I’d put Brown at 65-70% chance of being re-elected. May be more likely to rise than fall.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Renacci's entry will not change my Lean D rating, at least not right away. Brown will start out with a massive fundraising advantage and several months head start on campaigning for this particular race. I will of course be watching for actual polling to further clarify the state of the race.

As of right now I’d put Brown at 65-70% chance of being re-elected. May be more likely to rise than fall.

I'd say 85-90% chance.

[BuckeyeNut]

Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency.

Also he’s no more of an Ohio than Hillary is an Arkansan.

[Young Conservative]

I think Renacci is a better candidate than Mandel.