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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality
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Poll
Question: Who wins the Ohio U.S. Senate Race?
#1State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R)  
#2U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D)  
#3Other  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 171

Author Topic: OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality  (Read 38874 times)
Not_A_Man
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« Reply #525 on: February 15, 2018, 05:14:56 pm »

Rand Paul endorses Mike Gibbons.

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/964206767436480513?s=12

lolwut

LOL

Kek
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NevadanAtHeart
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« Reply #526 on: February 15, 2018, 07:27:15 pm »

Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio.

Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #527 on: February 15, 2018, 07:31:27 pm »

Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio.

Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked.

Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse?
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #528 on: February 15, 2018, 08:50:20 pm »

Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio.

Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked.

Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse?

Gibbons, who is the Kasich candidate in the race. The current ORP establishment is not really “establishement” ideologically, but Trumpian.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #529 on: February 15, 2018, 11:11:41 pm »

I think we're underestimating Renacci. I still think Sherrod will win in the end at the moment, but Renacci is adopting a very Trumpy message, and that could siphon a fair number of votes away from Brown's blue-collar appeal.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #530 on: February 17, 2018, 08:55:19 am »

I think we're underestimating Renacci. I still think Sherrod will win in the end at the moment, but Renacci is adopting a very Trumpy message, and that could siphon a fair number of votes away from Brown's blue-collar appeal.

Maybe. But Renacci is a huge unknown for the vast majority of the state and he doesn't come across as authentic. Brown's been winning statewide elections since the 1980's.
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« Reply #531 on: February 17, 2018, 10:48:37 am »

I think we're underestimating Renacci. I still think Sherrod will win in the end at the moment, but Renacci is adopting a very Trumpy message, and that could siphon a fair number of votes away from Brown's blue-collar appeal.

Trump’s schtick only works if the other candidate is more hated than the bubonic plague.  I don’t think folks realize how much many Ohioans hated Hillary; I didn’t even canvass for her campaign b/c I was worried that my contempt for her would come through.  She just did not play well in the cultural Midwest.  Even Franklin County was overflowing with Democrats like me who were only voting for her because of how bad Trump was; don’t let the machine-dominated primary fool you.  Hillary was almost as much of an anathema to cultural Midwesterners as she was to blue-collar WWC folks (the media often mistakenly conflates the two although there is *some* overlap in certain places), but for very different reasons (the percieved insincerity and lack of likability hurt with cultural Midwesterners while with the WWC there was a lot more sexism and redirected anger at Bill Clinton in the mix).  Trump did not play well outside of the blood red rural areas and certain WWC areas, many Republicans held their noses and voted for him while many Democrats didn’t turnout for Hillary (a big overlooked story in Ohio), it’s just that Hillary came off even worse.  Ohio likes its statewide Republicans to *sound* inoffensive, civil, and non-threatening when they’re saying horrible things (think Patton Oswalt’s Starbucks bigot bit).  Kasich (ironically a notoriously nasty individual in private) and Husted are great examples of this.  Renacci - like Mandel - took the wrong lesson away from 2016.  Someone like Biden, Brown, pre-scandal Franken, etc would’ve carried Ohio by high single-digits. 

That said, I think Sanders would’ve only done 1-2 points better than Hillary here at best and could’ve easily done even worse.  Turnout would’ve been much worse in Franklin County, he’d have done much worse in Hamilton County, and I suspect we’d have seen even lower African-American turnout across the country (including in Ohio).  The path to victory in Ohio that year was a straight white guy with blue-collar appeal whose style didn’t offend the cultural sensibilities of affluent, highly-educated suburbanites.  At this point, Berniecrats and educated, affluent suburbanites need each other to get anything done (i.e. take back Congress).  The latter group needs to accept that Smiley Smiley socially liberal, fiscally conservative Smiley Smiley corporate attorneys are not gonna play well in places like ME-2 and the former need to stop reflexively opposing anything the “establishment” does.  Sometimes establishment backed candidates really are the best person running (ex: Gil Cisneros and Steve Horsford), but I digress.

The point is that no one really hates Sherrod Brown, not even your average OH Republican.  If I had to summarize how most Ohioans see Sherrod (another thing, how many other Senators are often referred to by their first name by their constituents?) it’d be “he’s one of us, fighting for us.”  He even got endorsed by a Republican County chair in a decently-sized county in 2012.  He has a strong personal brand completely separate from the Democratic Party.  Plus he comes across as a very blue-collar, down-to-earth guy whereas Renacci is basically a rich some dude who bought his way into Congress in a Republican wave year.  He was always a notoriously weak incumbent with poor constituent service and most were surprised the Republicans threw Austria to the wolves rather than him (my guess is that either Gibbs or Renacci was saved by geography, both wasted no time developing reputations for extreme lazyness and general incompetence, respectively). 

Honestly, I don’t even think Renacci has a path to victory given the current environment (although he’s arguably a step up from the boy blunder a.k.a. Josh Mandel and both are “stronger” than Vance would’ve been).  I strongly suspect this will be right on the border between Likely D and Safe D by Labor Day.  Renacci probably would’ve lost even in a Hillary midterm (as would Mandel, but he wouldn’t be the nominee since Kasich would ascendant in such a scenario), but someone like Husted or Stivers would’ve easily won.  As it stands, Husted, DeWine, Kasich, Taylor, Tiberi, Stivers, Faber, Yost, Huffman, etc all chose not to run for Senate b/c Republicans simply weren’t gonna pick this seat up during a Trumpterm and everyone knew it.  Even Renacci initially ran for Governor Tongue

TL;DR: The reason the nomination was left to the likes of Mandel and Renacci is that everyone knows there’s no path to victory against Brown this cycle barring some massive unforeseeable scandal which while you never know with these people (exhibit A: Al Franken, exhibit B: Roy Moore, never would’ve guessed either in a million years), is probably a bit less likely with Brown than your average politician.
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« Reply #532 on: February 17, 2018, 11:55:58 am »

Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio.

Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked.

Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse?

Gibbons, who is the Kasich candidate in the race. The current ORP establishment is not really “establishement” ideologically, but Trumpian.

wasn't the Kasich team support for Gibbons mainly an anti-Mandel thing, since Renacci was running for Governor not Senate until last month?  Renacci is a Main Street Partnership guy.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #533 on: February 17, 2018, 12:31:35 pm »

Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio.

Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked.

Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse?

Gibbons, who is the Kasich candidate in the race. The current ORP establishment is not really “establishement” ideologically, but Trumpian.

wasn't the Kasich team support for Gibbons mainly an anti-Mandel thing, since Renacci was running for Governor not Senate until last month?  Renacci is a Main Street Partnership guy.

Renacci’s membership in the MSP is a joke. He’s very Trumpian.
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« Reply #534 on: February 17, 2018, 12:32:23 pm »

Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio.

Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked.

Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse?

Gibbons, who is the Kasich candidate in the race. The current ORP establishment is not really “establishement” ideologically, but Trumpian.

wasn't the Kasich team support for Gibbons mainly an anti-Mandel thing, since Renacci was running for Governor not Senate until last month?  Renacci is a Main Street Partnership guy.

Renacci’s membership in the MSP is a joke. He’s very Trumpian.

To be fair, the entire MSP is kind of a joke at this point Tongue
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Free Bird
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« Reply #535 on: February 17, 2018, 02:23:39 pm »

I think we're underestimating Renacci. I still think Sherrod will win in the end at the moment, but Renacci is adopting a very Trumpy message, and that could siphon a fair number of votes away from Brown's blue-collar appeal.

Maybe. But Renacci is a huge unknown for the vast majority of the state and he doesn't come across as authentic. Brown's been winning statewide elections since the 1980's.

He may be politiciany, but being an unknown statewide could either be a good or bad thing depending on how he plays his cards.
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MarkD
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« Reply #536 on: February 17, 2018, 06:36:38 pm »

Renacci fits right in to the Republican Main Street Partnership -- a moderately conservative guy. His approval ratings from the American Conservative Union for the years 2011-2016 are an average 71.2%.
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« Reply #537 on: February 17, 2018, 06:42:40 pm »

So how many months until this gets triaged by the NRSC?
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« Reply #538 on: February 18, 2018, 12:15:26 am »

Renacci fits right in to the Republican Main Street Partnership -- a moderately conservative guy. His approval ratings from the American Conservative Union for the years 2011-2016 are an average 71.2%.

Renacci did endorse Trump and he's been tying himself to Trump.  But this isn't inconsistent with being moderate on many issues.  It shouldn't be surprisng that someone like Rand Paul would consider Gibbons, and Gibbons to present himself, as the "conservative" one in the race versus Renacci.
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Kantakouzenos
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« Reply #539 on: March 26, 2018, 12:44:49 pm »

Survey USA polled this race and it finds Sherrod Brown leading Renacci and Gibbons by 14 points (52-38 in both cases).

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b21c66fb-ba89-4b8c-9171-30457f6997d2

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« Reply #540 on: March 26, 2018, 01:47:29 pm »

Survey USA polled this race and it finds Sherrod Brown leading Renacci and Gibbons by 14 points (52-38 in both cases).

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b21c66fb-ba89-4b8c-9171-30457f6997d2



I know this is a bit off topic, and that SUSA is notorious for terrible crosstabs, but Kasich's approval rating with black voters is actually higher than his white approval. You don't see that often.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #541 on: May 05, 2018, 01:05:43 pm »

With just days left before the primary, Gibbons is suing Renacci in a $1 million defamation suit.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #542 on: May 08, 2018, 06:25:01 pm »

Polls close shortly, giving this a bump to act as a discussion thread.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #543 on: May 08, 2018, 07:20:56 pm »

With the early vote plus ~1% of precincts, Renacci is up 46.7% to 31.9%. About the margin I would have expected.

The map looks strange though, with Gibbons doing well in the NW, Columbus, and SE with Renacci getting his margins from the more populous NE and traditionally very Republican SW.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #544 on: May 08, 2018, 07:23:50 pm »

With the early vote plus ~1% of precincts, Renacci is up 46.7% to 31.9%. About the margin I would have expected.

The map looks strange though, with Gibbons doing well in the NW, Columbus, and SE with Renacci getting his margins from the more populous NE and traditionally very Republican SW.

Looks like your standard media market map  though.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #545 on: May 08, 2018, 07:25:57 pm »

With the early vote plus ~1% of precincts, Renacci is up 46.7% to 31.9%. About the margin I would have expected.

The map looks strange though, with Gibbons doing well in the NW, Columbus, and SE with Renacci getting his margins from the more populous NE and traditionally very Republican SW.

Looks like your standard media market map  though.

Oh definitely. For example, Erie and Huron Counties have a lot more in common with Ottawa and Sandusky Counties, but are in different media markets and their vote looks like it.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #546 on: May 08, 2018, 07:49:28 pm »

Seems to be tightening slightly: Renacci down to 43.9%-33.5%.

I suspect that may be due to Cuyahoga County being underrepresented right now. Half of Renacci's statewide lead is from the Cuyahoga County early vote!
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« Reply #547 on: May 08, 2018, 07:57:26 pm »

We are getting some stuff in from the SW though, Renacci flipped Clermont making the map look nicer. Also the NW corner, but yeah, I'm having a hard time seeing Gibbons gain unless Cuyahoga or Franklin turns out a whole lot more new voters.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #548 on: May 08, 2018, 08:00:12 pm »

We are getting some stuff in from the SW though, Renacci flipped Clermont making the map look nicer. Also the NW corner, but yeah, I'm having a hard time seeing Gibbons gain unless Cuyahoga or Franklin turns out a whole lot more new voters.

Yeah, and that Cuyahoga turning out a lot more new voters is rather likely to help Renacci not Gibbons. I suspect that for Gibbons to have a path, he needed to do better among the more white collar GOP base in the SW. Cuyahoga was always going to be rough for him.
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« Reply #549 on: May 08, 2018, 08:42:15 pm »

Renacci gets his call from AP/NYT.
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