OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio.

Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked.

Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse?

Gibbons, who is the Kasich candidate in the race. The current ORP establishment is not really “establishement” ideologically, but Trumpian.

wasn't the Kasich team support for Gibbons mainly an anti-Mandel thing, since Renacci was running for Governor not Senate until last month?  Renacci is a Main Street Partnership guy.

Renacci’s membership in the MSP is a joke. He’s very Trumpian.

To be fair, the entire MSP is kind of a joke at this point

[Free Bird]

I think we're underestimating Renacci. I still think Sherrod will win in the end at the moment, but Renacci is adopting a very Trumpy message, and that could siphon a fair number of votes away from Brown's blue-collar appeal.

Maybe. But Renacci is a huge unknown for the vast majority of the state and he doesn't come across as authentic. Brown's been winning statewide elections since the 1980's.

He may be politiciany, but being an unknown statewide could either be a good or bad thing depending on how he plays his cards.

[MarkD]

Renacci fits right in to the Republican Main Street Partnership -- a moderately conservative guy. His approval ratings from the American Conservative Union for the years 2011-2016 are an average 71.2%.

[LimoLiberal]

So how many months until this gets triaged by the NRSC?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Renacci fits right in to the Republican Main Street Partnership -- a moderately conservative guy. His approval ratings from the American Conservative Union for the years 2011-2016 are an average 71.2%.

Renacci did endorse Trump and he's been tying himself to Trump.  But this isn't inconsistent with being moderate on many issues.  It shouldn't be surprisng that someone like Rand Paul would consider Gibbons, and Gibbons to present himself, as the "conservative" one in the race versus Renacci.

[Kantakouzenos]

Survey USA polled this race and it finds Sherrod Brown leading Renacci and Gibbons by 14 points (52-38 in both cases).

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b21c66fb-ba89-4b8c-9171-30457f6997d2

[Horus]

Survey USA polled this race and it finds Sherrod Brown leading Renacci and Gibbons by 14 points (52-38 in both cases).

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b21c66fb-ba89-4b8c-9171-30457f6997d2

I know this is a bit off topic, and that SUSA is notorious for terrible crosstabs, but Kasich's approval rating with black voters is actually higher than his white approval. You don't see that often.

[BuckeyeNut]

With just days left before the primary, Gibbons is suing Renacci in a $1 million defamation suit.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls close shortly, giving this a bump to act as a discussion thread.

[TJ in Oregon]

With the early vote plus ~1% of precincts, Renacci is up 46.7% to 31.9%. About the margin I would have expected.

The map looks strange though, with Gibbons doing well in the NW, Columbus, and SE with Renacci getting his margins from the more populous NE and traditionally very Republican SW.

[Oryxslayer]

With the early vote plus ~1% of precincts, Renacci is up 46.7% to 31.9%. About the margin I would have expected.

The map looks strange though, with Gibbons doing well in the NW, Columbus, and SE with Renacci getting his margins from the more populous NE and traditionally very Republican SW.

Looks like your standard media market map  though.

[TJ in Oregon]

With the early vote plus ~1% of precincts, Renacci is up 46.7% to 31.9%. About the margin I would have expected.

The map looks strange though, with Gibbons doing well in the NW, Columbus, and SE with Renacci getting his margins from the more populous NE and traditionally very Republican SW.

Looks like your standard media market map  though.

Oh definitely. For example, Erie and Huron Counties have a lot more in common with Ottawa and Sandusky Counties, but are in different media markets and their vote looks like it.

[TJ in Oregon]

Seems to be tightening slightly: Renacci down to 43.9%-33.5%.

I suspect that may be due to Cuyahoga County being underrepresented right now. Half of Renacci's statewide lead is from the Cuyahoga County early vote!

[Oryxslayer]

We are getting some stuff in from the SW though, Renacci flipped Clermont making the map look nicer. Also the NW corner, but yeah, I'm having a hard time seeing Gibbons gain unless Cuyahoga or Franklin turns out a whole lot more new voters.

[TJ in Oregon]

We are getting some stuff in from the SW though, Renacci flipped Clermont making the map look nicer. Also the NW corner, but yeah, I'm having a hard time seeing Gibbons gain unless Cuyahoga or Franklin turns out a whole lot more new voters.

Yeah, and that Cuyahoga turning out a lot more new voters is rather likely to help Renacci not Gibbons. I suspect that for Gibbons to have a path, he needed to do better among the more white collar GOP base in the SW. Cuyahoga was always going to be rough for him.

[Oryxslayer]

Renacci gets his call from AP/NYT.

[Badger]

A less than impressive plurality win for Renacci.