OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Rjjr77]

Bleh, Mandel.

Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it.  Endorsing Tiberi.  

Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well.

Kasich couldn't beat Mandel in a primary right now.

Husted's running for governor, he's probably the best republican on the bench in the state though

[Rjjr77]

No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat.

Eh, maybe. But I think this whole "OMG rematches never work!!" narrative is a bit overblown. If 2018 is a good year for the GOP, Mandel will beat Brown. He could even do it in a neutral year.

I also think Tiberi is overhyped, but maybe that's just me. 

I don't think Tiberi is running anymore, he tied himself to the Kasich team in Ohio, and the Kasich camp has taken massive damage this past year, I'd be surprised if he'd give up his seat to most likely lose to mandel

[Rjjr77]

Sherrod Brown can actually talk to Ohioans,  and he is the kind of progressive people vote for. Mandel is a baby-faced little Marco for Ohio. Trump will be very unpopular by 2018, and I have a hard time seeing the GOP win he seat in an anti-Trump midterm when they couldn't in a presidential election year.

Sherrod is considered by all to be a talented politician, but someone too far left for his state, mandel isn't beloved but he's a fundraising machine


Ohio trends much further right in midterms, than presidentials. That's why they've had only 16 years of a democrat governor(and only one two term democrat governor) since 1963.

Finally mandel didn't lose to brown by that large a margin, all things considered.

[Rjjr77]

Besides his fundraising ability, I don't see how Mandel was a good enough candidate in 2012 to justify a retread. And it's not like Ohio has a small Republican bench.

It should be telling that the more qualified Republican office holders are looking at the Governor's mansion and row offices, not D.C.

Well, I mean Husted has been pretty clear that governor was his end game in politics since his time as speaker, Dewine clearly doesn't want to go back. Mandel, Yost and Taylor are all probably on the same level of candidate skills, All with faults compared to Husted and Dewine. The interesting one is Renacci who by all thinking would be a strong and scary(to democrats) senate candidate, who is interested in hopping into a crowded primary.

[Rjjr77]

Bleh, Mandel.

Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it.  Endorsing Tiberi. 

Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well.

Kasich's too interested in primarying Trump, and with the coupe in the Ohio GOP ousting the Kasich wing, it's fairly unlikely Tiberi runs now. Husted's running for Governor.

Husted's running for Governor?  Is DeWine out?  Mary Taylor?

Husted and Dewine are tier one.
Taylor and Renacci are tier two.
And this thing is a 4 way race as of right now

[Rjjr77]

Wouldn't Kasich run for this seat?

No. He doesn't appear to want it, and his political capital with Ohio is running on empty.

[Rjjr77]

I'm surprised by the people on here who support Mandel and those who don't. It's most likely he won't receive a primary challenge.

The guy has a big war chest I hear. Also, the Kasich wings seems to be losing steam, the longtime Ohio Republican Chairman (Borges) was suddenly ousted, with even Mary Taylor opposing him. It looks like Mandel has shored up lots of support among all the wings of the Republican primary electorate, but there's still plenty of time I guess.

Mary Taylor or Rennacci may decide a one on one with mandel would be preferable to the crowded governor's race, but right now he's getting a pass.

[Rjjr77]

Interesting a big fan of mandel who prefers dewine, kind of an odd mix.

[Rjjr77]

Why are people confident Kasich isn't going to be the nominee? I'm not disputing this, I would just like to know more.

His designated ally and Chairman of the Ohio GOP got kicked out on his ass. It's overstating to say Kasich couldn't win a primary in Ohio anymore, but it'd actually be difficult for him. Viewed as too much of an obstructionist to the Trump Train.

It's generally a bad sign for Republicans when you've got Democrats who once loathed you singing your praises as the one Republican with integrity.

This, and his approval rating among trump voters was under 50%. (In October, probably lower now) I don't think he'd win a primary in Ohio right now.

Also, he's not running for it.

[Rjjr77]

It's a fair bit skeevier than what was originally reported. He under-reported the cost initially, and then avoided going to a Control Board by spreading the payments out. There's also a fair difference between television and radio, and Mandel recruited a celebrity for his ad.

It's also probably best for Brown to not bring attention to it. The big papers around the state are picking it up naturally, and he can stay above the fray.

What Republicans in Ohio don't like Mandel? And, yeah, I'm a big fan; the guy is a real economic conservative who understands the threat posed by Iran (and, by extension, Russia); he's sure to get my vote in 2018, even as I probably vote Democratic for the House to protest Trump.

It's anecdotal, but I know Republicans who take serious issue with 1: his unprosecuted federal election laws violation, 2: his Islamophobic attacks on Kevin Boyce.

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Actually, Husted's out-raised DeWine.

I think Husted is the best candidate, probably the one the Dems would least like to face

[Rjjr77]

Mandel fans the flames of fear with his latest tweet:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/843524028258275328

Nothing new, he's running this way since day he declared.

[Rjjr77]

If Mandel runs, Sherrod will win. It's a lot closer if Kasich jumps in, but I don't believe he's going to run for office again.

Mandel is running, Kasich is not.

Sherrod is vulnerable, I expect he probably pulls it off, that race will lean D, but he's not going to be Rob Portman.

[Rjjr77]

Republicans have complete control of Ohio at almost every level and yet the state still has a remarkable ability to produce a never-ending stream of bland, empty careerist politicians.

Seriously, can the GOP find no better candidate for this seat than Josh Mandel?

Mandel is a top notch fundraiser, who got in early enough to scare anyone else away.
The other big names (Jon Husted, Mike DeWine, Mary Taylor) are all lined up to run for Governor. With the exception of Jim Jordan there really isn't a republican congressman with the profile to take out Mandel, although it probably would have been smarter for Renacci to run for Senate instead of the jumbled gubernatorial race

[Rjjr77]

Congressman Tiberi, a potential primary rival, attacked Mandel yesterday over the cost and redundancy of OhioCheckbook.gov while speaking at The Ohio State University's Mortiz College of Law.

Interesting, still don't see Tiberi getting in at this point, he's so damaged

[Rjjr77]

Haha, I love your sig, BuckeyeNut.

This race could theoretically go either way, but I have to call Brown favored at this point.

It's a lean D race.

[Rjjr77]

Sherrod Brown raised 2.4 mil in Q1 2017.

Truly an excellent haul.

In other news, the Club for Growth has taken out an ad attacking him for not being conservative enough and alleging he didn't do enough to repeal Obamacare -- which is strange when he was one of the few supporters of AHCA. The Club for Growth endorsed Mandel in December.

An Ad against Tiberi you mean?

[Rjjr77]

Sherrod Brown raised 2.4 mil in Q1 2017.

Truly an excellent haul.

In other news, the Club for Growth has taken out an ad attacking him for not being conservative enough and alleging he didn't do enough to repeal Obamacare -- which is strange when he was one of the few supporters of AHCA. The Club for Growth endorsed Mandel in December.

An Ad against Tiberi you mean?

Ah, yes. Could have sworn I had his name in there...

I find the point of it odd, may just be a test run, zero chance Tiberi gets in, and less than zero chance he were to defeat mandel

[Rjjr77]

Sherrod Brown raised 2.4 mil in Q1 2017.

Truly an excellent haul.

In other news, the Club for Growth has taken out an ad attacking him for not being conservative enough and alleging he didn't do enough to repeal Obamacare -- which is strange when he was one of the few supporters of AHCA. The Club for Growth endorsed Mandel in December.

An Ad against Tiberi you mean?

Ah, yes. Could have sworn I had his name in there...

That said I'm sure Club for Growth *will * run ads against Sherrod for not being conservative enough

Sure will, a lot of money will go into this race, mandel is an exceptional fundraiser. He'll attack brown for being too liberal for the state (he is). Brown will attack mandel for being too slimy (he is). Things will get ugly

[Rjjr77]

What specific policies of Brown's are too liberal for the people of Ohio?

I mean I don't really have time to list everything, from guns to single payer and beyond.

Sherrod's an unabashed far left progressive, I don't think it's that shocking for me to say that. And Ohio is a center right leaning swing state. Sherrods also an attentive and active senator who is likeable with a great Ohio ballot name, ideologically he's to the far left of the majority of state packed with blue collar Democrats.

[Rjjr77]

What specific policies of Brown's are too liberal for the people of Ohio?

I mean I don't really have time to list everything, from guns to single payer and beyond.

Sherrod's an unabashed far left progressive, I don't think it's that shocking for me to say that. And Ohio is a center right leaning swing state. Sherrods also an attentive and active senator who is likeable with a great Ohio ballot name, ideologically he's to the far left of the majority of state packed with blue collar Democrats.

41% of self described Republicans support single payer healthcare. 58% of the American public does. It's not a far left issue.

On guns you might have a point. But my gut tells me that that's more of an emotional "liberals look down on us" issue than one of specific policy for most voters. And Sherrod just doesn't come across as a condescending liberal.

The majority of people don't support single payer.
When asked if they support single payer they say yes, when told what single payer is they don't like it. The majority of people have no idea what single payer actually means, it just sounds nice and they "support" it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/02/people-have-no-idea-what-single-payer-means/471045/

And don't say it's republican BS because I even took it from the Atlantic.

so few people understand polls.

[Rjjr77]

What specific policies of Brown's are too liberal for the people of Ohio?

I mean I don't really have time to list everything, from guns to single payer and beyond.

Sherrod's an unabashed far left progressive, I don't think it's that shocking for me to say that. And Ohio is a center right leaning swing state. Sherrods also an attentive and active senator who is likeable with a great Ohio ballot name, ideologically he's to the far left of the majority of state packed with blue collar Democrats.

41% of self described Republicans support single payer healthcare. 58% of the American public does. It's not a far left issue.

On guns you might have a point. But my gut tells me that that's more of an emotional "liberals look down on us" issue than one of specific policy for most voters. And Sherrod just doesn't come across as a condescending liberal.

The majority of people don't support single payer.
When asked if they support single payer they say yes, when told what single payer is they don't like it. The majority of people have no idea what single payer actually means, it just sounds nice and they "support" it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/02/people-have-no-idea-what-single-payer-means/471045/

And don't say it's republican BS because I even took it from the Atlantic.

so few people understand polls.

So you're predicting that the NRSC is going to spend time explaining what single payer healthcare is in TV time in order to attack Brown?

Point being, the attack ad goes "Senator Sherrod Brown supports socialized medicine," Brown responds, "I support single payer!" Null issue, since the terminology is viewed favorably.

Sherrod Brown supports Government take-over of health-care.

Thats all the attack you need, especially in a place like Ohio where they hate that so much the voters put it into the state constitution.

[Rjjr77]

So not only is Brown going to face the same opponent as 2012, but he'll also be using the same attacks from 2012 (Obamacare!)?

You can't just assume trends + midterm turnout will bail you out.

im expecting Sherrod Brown to win, but lets not act like he's invincible.

[Rjjr77]

Tiberi still hasn't made up his mind.

His bank account is bursting, and if Clinton was President, Tiberi could have easily dispatched Mandel in a primary. The fact that Ryan didn't support Tiberi's bid for Chairman of Ways & Means may indicate Tiberi's bored with the House, but it's hard to say. The Kasich-Tiberi-Boehner brand of Republicanism is not fairing well here.

Tiberi would be foolish to run right now, mandel could easily be beat by another candidate, but it's not going to be a late entry Tiberi. Never trump would kill him

[Rjjr77]

If Josh Mandel is all we can get​ we deserve to lose. I think Tiberi still has a shot against him in the primary, just because Mandel already lost once.

Tiberi is a pretty weak candidate, someone like Jim Jordan or John Husted would mop the floor with mandel but they aren't running. Renacci could actually make noise in that primary too but at this stage, it's going to be mandel.

[Rjjr77]

Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide.

I don't know if I agree with that, yes he's very conservative, but he's not conservative in an unlikeable way and he's easily the best known congressman in the state. While Brown is probably too left for the state and Jordan is probably too right, they are similarities to how they go about being on their ideological sides.