OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[TJ in Oregon]

*shrug*

The question is whether or not they dislike his opponents in each round worse.

Also, Larkin's long surpassed his quota of WORST CANDIDATE EVER!!!!!! editorials.

[TJ in Oregon]

Mandel isn't a Nazi, he just has a personal vendetta against the ADL that impairs his judgment on things that involve them.

Although I wish him and his family well, he wasn't a great candidate. Provided the Republicans get someone else in there and don't nominate Gibbons, this could end up improving their chances.

[TJ in Oregon]

Renacci might not be the perfect candidate but he's almost certainly a better candidate than Mandel.

It is a shame the reason why Mandel had to drop out though.

[TJ in Oregon]

With the early vote plus ~1% of precincts, Renacci is up 46.7% to 31.9%. About the margin I would have expected.

The map looks strange though, with Gibbons doing well in the NW, Columbus, and SE with Renacci getting his margins from the more populous NE and traditionally very Republican SW.

[TJ in Oregon]

With the early vote plus ~1% of precincts, Renacci is up 46.7% to 31.9%. About the margin I would have expected.

The map looks strange though, with Gibbons doing well in the NW, Columbus, and SE with Renacci getting his margins from the more populous NE and traditionally very Republican SW.

Looks like your standard media market map  though.

Oh definitely. For example, Erie and Huron Counties have a lot more in common with Ottawa and Sandusky Counties, but are in different media markets and their vote looks like it.

[TJ in Oregon]

Seems to be tightening slightly: Renacci down to 43.9%-33.5%.

I suspect that may be due to Cuyahoga County being underrepresented right now. Half of Renacci's statewide lead is from the Cuyahoga County early vote!

[TJ in Oregon]

We are getting some stuff in from the SW though, Renacci flipped Clermont making the map look nicer. Also the NW corner, but yeah, I'm having a hard time seeing Gibbons gain unless Cuyahoga or Franklin turns out a whole lot more new voters.

Yeah, and that Cuyahoga turning out a lot more new voters is rather likely to help Renacci not Gibbons. I suspect that for Gibbons to have a path, he needed to do better among the more white collar GOP base in the SW. Cuyahoga was always going to be rough for him.